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mercoledì 13 settembre 2017

Posizioni retail sul cambio Eur/Usd

Buongiorno trader,


vediamo come sono posizionati i traders retail sul cambio EUR/USD per la giornata di oggi 13 settembre.


Si registra un aumento delle posizioni short rispetto alla giornata di ieri di un 2.3%, sulla zona che va da 1.1940 e 1.1970.


L’area psicologica di 1.20, come segnalato nelle precedenti analisi, potrebbe continuare a fare da calamita e mantenere il cambio in un noioso laterale fino al prossimo evento macro di rilievo.


La media totale resta sempre short con un 59.9% su oltre 15 fonti analizzate.


Segnalo anche interessanti opportunità sul fronte forze valute daily dove abbiamo:


Forza su : GBP e NZD

Debolezza su: JPY e CHF


Termometro Forex
Termometro Forex



Posizioni retail sul cambio Eur/Usd
Posizioni retail sul cambio Eur/Usd
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Listini europei positivi, a Milano giù Mediaset, bene bancari

Investing.com – oggi, seduta decisamente tranquilla, per la quotazione del contratto future sull’indice milanese.


La quotazione del contratto Future FTSE MIB con scadenza a dicembre, è al momento di 22150 punti, in guadagno del +0.19%, rispetto a ieri.


È generalmente positiva la situazione generale dei listini europei che vede segnare, in questo momento, Amsterdam (+0.32 %), Parigi (+0.18 %), Euro Stoxx 50 (+0.32%), Zurigo (+0.09%), Francoforte (+0.14 %), Londra (-0.13 %), Madrid (+0.27 %)


La quotazione del contratto future FTSE MIB si trova oggi in una situazione attendista, con movimenti lenti e contenuti. L’area frequentata oggi è quella intorno ai 22150 punti con possibilità di estensione up verso i primi target rialzisti di 22215 e 22275 punti. Viceversa, una correzione ribassista potrebbe riportare la quotazione verso i valori compresi fra i valori di 22080 e 22000 punti. valori sui quali, se testati si potrebbe assistere ad una ripresa degli acquisti. Importanti ai fini dell"avvio di possibili movimenti di mercato saranno i dati usa in arrivo nel pomeriggio.


In linea, gli scambi odierni, con quelli della seduta precedente, sino al momento attuale, i volumi di scambio sulla piazza milanese, con 358 Mln di azioni scambiate per un volume di 1455 Mln di euro.


La piazza europea con la migliore performance (indici) è, al momento della presente lettura, Amsterdam, con una performance del +0.42%.


In maggioranza positive, per ora, le performance dei titoli bancari (FTSE MIB), che, vedono 8 titoli su 10 in guadagno, Il titolo migliore è al momento Banco BPM (MI:PMII), con una performance del +2.17%.


Al momento, fra i titoli peggiori del FTSE MIB troviamo Mediaset (MI:MS): -3.75%, Luxottica (MI:LUX) (-1.85%), Terna (MI:TRN) (-1.64%) e Telecom (MI:TLIT) (-0.89%).


Fra i migliori della seduta ci sono al momento: Banco Bpm (MI:BAMI) (+1.99%), Saipem (MI:SPMI) (+1.79%), Tenaris (MI:TENR) (+1.45%) e Unipol (MI:UNPI) Gruppo (+1.48%).


In discesa il cambio EUR/USD che scambia a 1.1930, in diminuzione del -0.34%.


Nel calendario economico odierno, fra le maggiori notizie troviamo: indice IPP e IAPC in Spagna, indice IPP in Svizzera, PIL in Svezia, IPP mensile, scorte di petrolio greggio, inventario di Cushing Oklahoma delle giacenze di Crude Oil e bilancio del budget federale negli USA, indice dei salari medi inclusi bonus, variazione nelle richieste di sussidi di disoccupazione e tasso di disoccupazione in Gran Bretagna.


Future FTSE MIB, grafico su tf giornaliero
Future FTSE MIB, grafico su tf giornaliero



Listini europei positivi, a Milano giù Mediaset, bene bancari
Listini europei positivi, a Milano giù Mediaset, bene bancari
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EUR/USD to Pare Losses on Lackluster U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)


Talking Points:


- AUD/USD Snaps Bearish Series Ahead of Australia Employment Report Despite Cautious RBA.


- EUR/USD to Pare Losses on Lackluster U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).





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DailyFX TableAUD/USD

AUD/USD snaps the series of lower highs & lows from earlier this week and the pair may continue to gain ground over the next 24-hours of trade as Australia Employment is projected to increase another 20.0K in August.


A further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adopt an improved outlook for the region, but the central bank appears to be in no rush to lift the cash rate off of the record-low as board member Ian Harper strikes a cautious tone and argues ‘the Australian economy is still operating below its potential.’ In turn, a lackluster employment report may trigger a larger pullback in AUD/USD, with the pair at risk of giving back the advance from the August-low (0.7808) as Governor Philip Lowe and Co. appear to be on course to retain the accommodative stance throughout 2017.


AUD/USD Daily Chart


AUD/USD Daily Chart

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  • Broader outlook for AUD/USD remains constructive as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the bullish trends from earlier this year.

  • However, the failed attempt to clear the 0.8150 (100% expansion) hurdle raises the risk for a near-term correction especially as the momentum indicator struggles to push into overbought territory and appears to be deviating with the exchange rate.

  • As a result, AUD/USD may test the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7930 (50% retracement) to 0.7940 (61.8% retracement) for support, which sits just below the 20-Day SMA (0.7961), with the next downside region of interest coming in around 0.7850 (38.2% retracement) to 0.7860 (61.8% expansion).

EUR/USD

EUR/USD struggles to retain the rebound from earlier this week as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) picked up for the second consecutive month in September, but the below-forecast print raises the risk for another batch of mixed data prints as many Fed officials ‘saw some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2 percent for longer than they currently expected, and several indicated that the risks to the inflation outlook could be tilted to the downside.


Even though the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to uptick to an annualized 1.8% in August, a decline in the core rate of inflation may ultimately spark a bearish reaction in the greenback as it dampens the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) scope to deliver three rate-hikes in 2017. As a result, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may outline a more shallow path for the Fed Funds rate at the September 20 interest rate decision, and the central bank may merely attempt to buy more time as price growth continues to run below the 2% target.


EUR/USD Daily Chart


USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View


  • USD/CAD may stage a larger rebound as the 1.2080 (61.8% expansion) hurdle offers near-term support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be deviating with price as it fails to mark a fresh 2017-low.

  • Topside targets are back on the radar as the RSI bounces back from oversold territory, with a break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2210 (50% expansion) to 1.2230 (50% retracement) opening up the 1.2350 (38.2% expansion) hurdle followed by the former-support zone around 1.2440 (23.6% expansion).


Retail Sentiment


Retail Sentiment

Track Retail Sentiment with the New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning


  • Retail trader data shows 36.2% of traders are net-long AUD/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.76 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since June 04 when AUD/USD traded near 0.7456; price has moved 7.5% higher since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Aug 31 when AUD/USD traded near 0.79388. The number of traders net-long is 18.5% higher than yesterday and 12.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 2.1% lower from last week.

  • Retail trader data shows 36.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.71 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since April 18 when EUR/USD traded near 1.08642; price has moved 10.0% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.4% higher than yesterday and 15.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% lower than yesterday and 6.0% lower from last week.

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar


--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst


To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.


To be added to David"s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.



EUR/USD to Pare Losses on Lackluster U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
EUR/USD to Pare Losses on Lackluster U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
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Euro/dollaro stabile sotto 1,20 in attesa inflazione Usa, frena sterlina

© Reuters. Banconote da 10 dollari e 10 euro© Reuters. Banconote da 10 dollari e 10 euro


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Euro/dollaro complessivamente stabile, poco sotto la soglia di 1,20, con gli operatori cauti nel prendere nuove posizioni in attesa della pubblicazione domani dei dati di agosto sui prezzi al consumo Usa.


Nel corso della seduta il cambio si è mosso entro un corridoio alquanto stretto, compreso tra 1,1960 e 1,1994; venerdì scorso, all"indomani dell"ultimo meeting Bce, l"euro/dollaro era salito fino a 1,2092, massimo da gennaio 2015.


"I dati di inflazione Usa saranno un test significativo per le possibilità di ripresa del dollaro" commenta lo strategist di Ing Viraj Patel, aggiungendo che in assenza di rilevanti sorprese positive l"attuale contesto tende a penalizzare il biglietto verde nei confronti delle altre divise.


Oggi intanto i dati sui prezzi alla produzione Usa hanno mostrato in agosto un incremento del 2,4% tendenziale, più consistente dell"1,9% del mese precedente ma leggermente inferiore al 2,5% atteso dagli economisti.


Il dollaro cede leggermente nei confronti dello yen, pur tenendo in area 110, ampiamente sopra i minimi da novembre toccati solo la settimana scorsa a 107,33.


Rallenta la sterlina, che ha registrato un minimo intraday sul dollaro a 1,3253 dopo aver superato nella prima mattinata quota 1,33, toccando un massimo da un anno a 1,3328. Il cambio tratta ora in area 1,3275.


I dati di ieri sull"inflazione britannica, oltre il 2% in agosto, hanno riacceso le attese per un intervento restrittivo della Banca d"Inghilterra (anche se non già nel meeting di domani); a raffreddare la speculazione sono tuttavia arrivati questa mattina i numeri sui salari, che appaiono ancora in ritardo rispetto al rafforzamento dei prezzi al consumo.




Euro/dollaro stabile sotto 1,20 in attesa inflazione Usa, frena sterlina
Euro/dollaro stabile sotto 1,20 in attesa inflazione Usa, frena sterlina
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Weekly US oil inventories +5889K vs +4911K expected

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Weekly US oil inventories +5889K vs +4911K expected
Weekly US oil inventories +5889K vs +4911K expected
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US dollar gets back into gear

The dollar momentum continues


The US dollar is at or near the best levels of the day, right across the board. With the gains, USD/JPY has broken above yesterday"s high to the best level since Sept 1.


A big test for the pair will be 110.67, which was the Aug 31 high. A break would end the series of lower highs that"s plagued the pair.



The bigger story is the relief rally in the US dollar. Or is it something more than that?


See a post I wrote earlier this week on whether or not it"s sustainable.


What needs to happen to make this US dollar bounce last


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US dollar gets back into gear
US dollar gets back into gear
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Euro spills to a six-day low. Tax plan helping US dollar

EUR/USD drops to 1.1913


The euro ran some stops in a quick move down below Tuesday"s low of 1.1925.


It"s more about the sudden optimism for the US dollar that"s taken hold since Hurricane Irma damage trailed estimates.


That was given a further lift by headlines that are crossing about a release of the US tax plan on September 25. The market is starting to think it could really happen.



Euro spills to a six-day low. Tax plan helping US dollar
Euro spills to a six-day low. Tax plan helping US dollar
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Will the iPhone disappointment mark a turning point for US stocks?

S&P 500 opens lower as Apple shares slide


Today is one of those examples when the conventional wisdom held true. One of the most-talked-about trades is to buy Apple shares ahead of an announcement and to sell when the product is launched.


Shares had 7.6% from the start of August to yesterday"s open but the lack of new, exciting features led to a 1.2% drop today.


That helped to put the S&P 500 down 2 points to 2494 today.


Still, it"s tough to fade stocks here, despite soft September seasonality. The index has just broken out to the upside.



So maybe instead of getting too caught up in the conventional wisdom on Apple-share trading, maybe the thing to do is keep it simple and buy the break. After all, headlines are crossing, citing Mulvaney, that Trump is "insistent" on a 15% corporate tax rate.


Will the iPhone disappointment mark a turning point for US stocks?
Will the iPhone disappointment mark a turning point for US stocks?
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AUD/USD, NZD/USD Continue to Show Divergence


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AUD/NZD has been on a rather brisk run of recent, and the pair is currently seeing some element of support at a trend-line that started around two months ago. And while this can open the door to topside setups in the cross-pair, this can also be utilized to take a hedged stance around the U.S. Dollar, looking to sell New Zealand Dollars and buy Australian Dollars against USD. The goal of such a strategy is optimized risk-reward ratios, so that even a 50/50 can lead to a profitable set of trades.





AUD/NZD Four-Hour: Bullish Trend-Line Inflection Holds the Lows


AUD/USD, NZD/USD Continue to Show Divergence

Chart prepared by James Stanley


Long AUD/USD for USD-Weakness Continuation


AUD/USD continues to flirt with the psychologically important .8000-level, and earlier this week brought upon a support inflection that highlights how markets may be getting more comfortable with .8000+ AUD/USD spot rates. Nonetheless, I want to give a little bit of room to this position so that another re-test around .8000 doesn’t wash me out. Just below current support is a confluent zone that runs from .7929-.7946, and this could be an ideal washout level as prices below this zone indicate that the bullish AUD/USD position is not ready for prime time.


A stop at .7915 gives some distance below this zone while taking on ~100 pips of risk, and this can open the door to a break-even stop inside of the prior high at .8100, with an initial profit target at .8160. Additional targets can be set to .8200 and .8250.


AUD/USD Hourly


AUD/USD, NZD/USD Continue to Show Divergence

Chart prepared by James Stanley


Short NZD/USD for USD-Strength Scenarios


While the U.S. Dollar has continued to show weakness, the New Zealand Dollar has been even weaker since late-July. The previous high-flying trend in NZD/USD continues to hit the skids, and we’re currently seeing resistance at an interesting zone in the pair. The price of .7335 is the 38.2% retracement of the pair’s 2009-2011 major move, and this level has shown numerous instance of support/resistance in the recent past.


This can open the door for a similar 100-pip stop as the above AUD/USD position at .7366, along with a break-even stop at .7200. The first target at .7150 can allow for a deeper break-even stop move, with additional profit targets set to .7100 and then the major psychological level of .7000.


NZD/USD Daily


AUD/USD, NZD/USD Continue to Show Divergence

Chart prepared by James Stanley


--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX



AUD/USD, NZD/USD Continue to Show Divergence
AUD/USD, NZD/USD Continue to Show Divergence
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Ritracciamenti post situazioni geopolitiche



Buongiorno ai Lettori di Investing.com,


in questa video analisi prendiamo in esame le situazioni più calde, eseguendo ulteriori approfondimenti e previsioni sulle impostazioni grafiche del momento.


Lasciate i vostri suggerimenti, considerazioni, e critiche costruttive, sotto la video analisi, grazie.


[embedded content]


All rights reserved

© 2017 Michele Badea / Davide La Monica



Ritracciamenti post situazioni geopolitiche
Ritracciamenti post situazioni geopolitiche
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Elizabeth Beluguina and Zaheer Anwari, new Premium speakers

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We are very excited to announce that two new speakers will now be teachers of our Premium Webinars service! They both have extended experience as traders in the currency markets and as educators. Elizabeth Beluguina / Head Analyst – FBS Trader and analyst with more than 6 years of financial markets experience, Elizabeth Beluguina relies on … Continue reading Elizabeth Beluguina and Zaheer Anwari, new Premium speakers


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Elizabeth Beluguina and Zaheer Anwari, new Premium speakers
Elizabeth Beluguina and Zaheer Anwari, new Premium speakers
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Meet Desy, FXStreet’s Content Assistant

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We are headquartered in Barcelona, but our site wouldn’t be the same without its 30 international co-workers that cover financial markets all around the world. And that’s why today we want to introduce you Desy, FXStreet’s Content Assistant. She explains to us how is for her working from Indonesia, her hobbies and shows us the … Continue reading Meet Desy, FXStreet’s Content Assistant


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Meet Desy, FXStreet’s Content Assistant
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Meet Alba, FXStreet’s Community Manager

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Today ladies and gentlemen, we are interviewing the interviewer: Alba the Community Manager of FXStreet. We are going to be able to take a deeper look into her dreams, passions and the improvement that she has made working with Excel. What is more, we’ll discover something about her that might surprise us and also, we’ll … Continue reading Meet Alba, FXStreet’s Community Manager


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Your Money: Raising money for an emergency raises money questions

NEW YORK (Reuters) - When Lori Jung set up a crowdfunding campaign to help with her brother’s medical expenses for spinal cord damage, she also spoke to an accountant.

She needed advice on issues ranging from the tax implications of fundraising to managing tens of thousands of dollars in potential donations. Even after the consultation, which took place within days of her brother’s injury jumping off a pontoon boat, she was left with a list of questions.

Jung was wise to start her research early. Money matters often get shunted aside in deference to the emergency at hand when well-meaning people launch campaigns through online crowdfunding sites like GoFundMe.com or YouCaring.com.

Here are five ways to avoid big problems:

1. Pick the right beneficiary

“If I open up an account for you and raise $30,000, and give it to you, then I’ve given you a $30,000 gift,” said Morris Armstrong, an enrolled agent tax accountant and registered investment adviser in Cheshire, Connecticut.

An individual who gives a gift over $14,000 has to file a gift tax form with the IRS.

Also key: do not to offer anything in return for donations, said Armstrong. Offering a t-shirt or hat to boost donations may be great marketing, but suddenly you are in the business of selling merchandise, because you are not a registered charity.

Jung’s family linked the online campaign directly to Brian’s bank account, so that the 36-year-old was the beneficiary. Any donations are considered gifts to him and will not trigger income taxes, although he will have to pay tax on the interest.

2. Set a financial target

Emergencies do not always come with a definite price tag.

Briana Garcia, a 36-year-old from Stoneham, Massachusetts, did not know what her exact costs would be when she needed a stem-cell transplant in 2014. When her insurance denied coverage of the $125,000 procedure, she decided she needed to raise money online.

Garcia set her fundraising target at $40,000 once she negotiated to have the procedure covered. The rest went toward airfare, hotels and food for a month while she was getting ready for the operation.

If Garcia needs more help down the road, she plans to launch an update and refresh her campaign.

3. Beware of fees and fine print

Most crowdfunding platforms charge 5 to 10 percent site fee on top of a processing fee. For every $25 of the $40,000 she raised, Garcia said she got about $22, using GoFundMe.com.

YouCaring.com, however, does not take a cut of each donation, and instead relies on voluntary tips. It charges a processing fee of 2.9 percent, plus 30 cents per transaction.

Some sites will not release your funds unless you meet certain targets. Others may cut you off midway for some ill-defined violation of terms, said Michael Lai, CEO of the consumer advocacy site sitejabber.com. One of the biggest complaints Lai sees is against platforms that never turn over the funds at all.

To combat this, Lai recommends only choosing a platform where funds are directly deposited. Pick from among the more well-rated platforms, which you can discern via research on sites like sitejabber.com.

4. Be transparent with your donors

Garcia posted updates to her campaign page telling people when she was flying and how things were going.

“You want them to feel like they are helping and you are not scamming them,” she said.

YouCaring.com encourages people to post messages, photos and even videos. It helps to be specific about the purpose of the funds.

“It’s valuable to see a sense of purpose, that they are not raising money in a nebulous way,” said Dan Saper, CEO of YouCaring.com.

5. Safeguard your money

Lindsay McGrath, a 36-year-old librarian from Boston, raised about $65,000 via YouCaring.com to pay for an experimental cancer treatment in London. She did the first round in August.

In the meantime, she wants to know what to do with the funds in the bank, which she is keeping in a separate account. All of her expenditures - such as airfare and childcare - are mapped on a spreadsheet.

McGrath’s next step? Solicit some free financial advice through the network she has already established through her crowdfunding campaign.

Her plan is to sock away $25,000 in an investment that is safe, but liquid. She does not want to take any chances with her lifeline.

“I need to be extra-conservative with this money,” McGrath said.

Editing by Lauren Young and Andrew Hay

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Your Money: Raising money for an emergency raises money questions
Your Money: Raising money for an emergency raises money questions
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Meet Alba, FXStreet’s Community Manager

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Today ladies and gentlemen, we are interviewing the interviewer: Alba the Community Manager of FXStreet. We are going to be able to take a deeper look into her dreams, passions and the improvement that she has made working with Excel. What is more, we’ll discover something about her that might surprise us and also, we’ll … Continue reading Meet Alba, FXStreet’s Community Manager


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Barcelona terrorist attack: what we lived

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Yesterday the city of Barcelona faced a tragic evening: a van was driven into pedestrians in La Rambla, the very centre of our city, next to FXStreet’s headquarters. Our team is all safe and sound. But we are not gonna lie, we are shaken by this tragedy. We were direct witnesses of the pain and … Continue reading Barcelona terrorist attack: what we lived


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Meet Pablo, Content Editor at FXStreet

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This month, it’s time to “take off” from the office in Barcelona to land in Marbella (Malaga) to learn a little bit more about Pablo, who is part of the 30 co-workers that FXStreet has around the world. He is one of the News editors in the Content department who likes a really wide variety … Continue reading Meet Pablo, Content Editor at FXStreet


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Propaganda has completely changed and everyone is trying to figure out what comes next

Mass communication is available to everyone




What is power?


Sure, it"s the ability to pass laws, marshal armed forces and launch missiles. But it"s also the ability to get people to do what you want.


The easiest way to do that is to connect with them directly and that"s where the rules have been upended. Not only that, but the official word now competes on virtually even terms with rumors and misinformation.


The New York Times writes about propaganda today in a story that"s well-worth reading. They speak to Putin"s press secretary about the wave of media-inspired protests and uprisings. What"s clear is that the Kremlin believes that events like Ukraine"s orange revolution and the events that followed were spurred by western propaganda. Now they"re fighting back



The transformation and acceleration of information technology, Peskov said, had unmoored the global economy from real value. Perception alone could move markets or crash them. "We"ve never seen bubbles like we"ve seen in the greatest economy in the world, the United States," he said. The same free flow of information had produced "a new clash of interests," and so began "an informational disaster - an informational war."



What"s more is that he argues that it"s a dangerous landscape for every government, because individuals can wield enormous influence.



By way of example, he pointed to "this girl, from show business, Kim Kardashian." Kardashian is among the most popular people in all of social media, with 55 million Twitter followers, nearly 18 million more than President Trump. "Let"s imagine that one day she says, "My supporters - do this," " Peskov said. "This will be a signal that will be accepted by millions and millions of people. And she"s got no intelligence, no interior ministry, no defense ministry, no K.G.B." This, he said, was the new reality: the global proliferation of the kinds of reach and influence that were once reserved for the great powers and, more recently, great media conglomerates. Even Peskov sounded slightly amazed considering the possibilities. "The new reality creates a perfect opportunity for mass disturbances," he said, "or for initiating mass support or mass disapproval."



This is the information age and that means information is power. If that wasn"t obvious a year ago, it is today.


What would be easy to believe and easy to counter would be if all the discontent was truly some kind of government campaign. What would be much harder to swallow would be, like Marshall McLuhan said "the medium is the message. That the democratization of new media means that new ideas and false ideas are just far more easy to spread and believe.




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Cambio USD/JPY, riflessioni su un errore di trading

Buongiorno ai lettori di Investing.com,


Come tutti i trader, immagino, anche io compio degli errori nell"operatività quotidiana; errori che sono spesso il frutto dell"impulsività, nemica assoluta di una operatività ragionata e pianificata.


Voglio quindi, per condividere con voi l"esperienza, ritenendo che questo possa essere utile per tutti, raccontarvi di un mio gravissimo errore, commesso ieri mattina.


Come da immagine che segue, la sera precedente, avevo studiato un trade sul cambio USD/JPY, tracciando una trend line DOWN (X) su time frame D1 , seguendo i primi due massimi A e B (come da immagine allegata).


Su time frame H4, sia lo STOCASTICO che l"RSI mi segnalavano un ipervenduto, confermato anche su time frame DAILY.


Il pensiero di trade era, sul breve termine, LONG con un Take Profit alla linea di trend X come prima ipotesi o sulla linea mediana delle Bollinger bands, come seconda possibilità.


Ho persino segnato tutto, la sera, su un foglio di appunti, come faccio di solito: eseguo l"analisi con calma e distacco e mi scrivo i "pro e i contro" di un possibile trade . (allegato)


La mattina, però, osservando il grafico in movimento e riguardando gli appunti, mi son posto il problema della trend line X, tracciandone, al volo una seconda ipotetica Y.


Ho quindi, in base alla sensazione del momento, aperto il trade SHORT, totalmente accantonando l"analisi del giorno prima e le sue giuste basi analitiche.


Adesso, dopo aver eseguito un trade diametralmente opposto a quello da me inizialmente pianificato ed essendomi trovato con una posizione aperta contro mercato, non penso al buon trade perso, ma più che altro al fatto che, dopo aver fatto una corretta analisi, valutato attentamente la situazione del mercato e avendone i segnali di conferma, ho poi , improvvisamente e sull"onda delle emozioni momentanee, cambiato tutte le carte in tavola e operato addirittura contro la mia stessa analisi, aprendo un trade in direzione contraria a quanto ipotizzato!


Conclusioni:


Questo, evidentemente, è uno degli errori più frequenti che noi trader facciamo: seguire ciecamente le emozioni del momento, spesso tralasciando le buone analisi che a "mente fredda" avevamo eseguito in precedenza.


Ciò,a mio parere, e questo è il motivo per cui pubblico questo articolo, è uno degli errori più frequenti e deleteri nel quale spesso incorriamo.


La lezione da apprendere:


Tenere sotto controllo la propria irrazionalità, operando solo in base ad una analisi distaccata, anche se difficile da fare in concreto, è una esigenza primaria per qualsiasi trader che voglia operare proficuamente.


Un saluto a tutti i trader e buon trading.


USDJPY
USDJPY


Analisi
Analisi



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Il divieto cinese pesa sul Bitcoin; il prezzo a lungo termine scenderà?

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Il divieto cinese pesa sul Bitcoin; il prezzo a lungo termine scenderà?
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GBP in lieve rialzo in vista dei dati sull’inflazione

Più tardi sarà pubblicato l’indice sull’inflazione di agosto nel Regno Unito, che dovrebbe mostrare un’ulteriore accelerazione.


L’indice sui prezzi al consumo dovrebbe attestarsi al 2,8% a/a, riflettendo sia l’aumento dei carburanti, sia la debolezza della sterlina.


Anche l’indice di fondo, che esclude le componenti più volatili, dovrebbe superare l’obiettivo del 2% fissato dalla BoE (previsione media: 2,5% a/a).


Poiché la BoE ha detto chiaramente che è disposta a tollerare livelli d’inflazione più elevati perché gli effetti negativi della Brexit devono ancora manifestarsi, è improbabile che la sterlina si apprezzi bruscamente nel caso in cui l’inflazione acceleri più del previsto.


Analogamente, un dato deludente non farà scattare un’ondata di vendite sulla sterlina perché farebbe avvicinare gli indici all’obiettivo della BoE.


Sul fronte politico, la legge per la Brexit di Theresa May ieri ha compiuto un passo avanti, infatti i parlamentari hanno approvato il decreto legge che mira ad abrogare la Legge sulle Comunità Europee del 1972.


Questo è solo l’inizio del lungo cammino di May per far uscire la Gran Bretagna dell’UE.


Martedì mattina la sterlina britannica era in ampio rialzo sulla scia del miglioramento diffuso della propensione al rischio.


Il cable ha guadagnato lo 0,20%, salendo a 1,3190 e avvicinandosi alla prossima resistenza che giace a 1,3267 (massimo 3 agosto).


La sterlina si è apprezzata soprattutto contro lo yen giapponese, la coppia è infatti salita dello 0,225% a 144,42.


GBP in lieve rialzo in vista dei dati sull’inflazione
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Argento, possibile fase ribassista



Buongiorno ai lettori di Investing.com,


in ottica di grafico settimanale, la candela dell"ultima settimana, riguardante la quotazione del contratto Future Argento, evidenzia una barra di esaurimento al di sopra del "corpo".


Tale situazione identifica un possibile movimento ribassista nel corso della settimana in corso; il movimento short corrisponde ad una correzione all"interno del movimento rialzista, il quale potrebbe avere la sua massima estensione fino al test della Ema weekly.


Il possibile movimento ribassista è confermato anche dalla formazione di una figura tecnica definita "bearish butterfly" identificabile su grafico giornaliero.


Per determinare il punto preciso di ingresso a mercato in vendita, mi sposto su un grafico a 4 ore, nel quale posso vedere come il movimento ribassista potrebbe iniziare all"interno della zona evidenziata in giallo, nelle aree di test della Ema ( Media mobile esponenziale) o in prossimità di uno dei due livelli di Fibonacci - al 61,8% oppure al 50,0%, calcolati sull"ultimo movimento ribassista -.


Silver
Silver


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Riecco il dollaro USA!

La video analisi sul mercato delle valute, proposta da Renato Decarolis.


Buona visione.


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Riecco il dollaro USA!

La video analisi sul mercato delle valute, proposta da Renato Decarolis.


Buona visione.


[embedded content]



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Forex Major: i livelli da seguire nella giornata odierna

In questo articolo troverete i livelli chiave da seguire sulle principali coppie di valute. Le informazioni sono a scopo puramente didattico e non rappresentano suggerimento per quanto riguarda investimenti.


EUR/USD: il cambio continua a mostrare forza rialzista, mantendendo le sue contrattazioni al di sopra di un trendline formatasi dalla giornata del 17 agosto. Seguire con attenzione i movimenti di prezzo, verificando la tenuta di 1.19250. Se il mercato dovesse tornare sotto questi livelli, potrebbero esserci delle modifiche nello scenario di breve termine.


GBP/USD: il cambio supera nella giornata di ieri i massimi toccati nel mese di agosto. Seguire le dinamiche di prezzo in area di supporto 1,3240. Questo livello rappresenta un"area di prezzo fondamentale, la cui tenuta potrebbe vedere l"ingresso di nuovi compratori.


USD/JPY: il cambio inizia la sua settimana mostrando fin subito dall"apertura dei mercati forza rialzista. Su grafici di lungo termine non abbiamo infatti momenti di indecisione o ritracciamento dei prezzi. Seguire le dinamiche di prezzo in area di resistenza 110.500. Questa zona potrebbe vedere l"ingresso di nuovi venditori e portare a dei ritracciamenti con cui sarebbe possibile inserirsi a mercato.


AUD/USD: il cambio torna al di sotto del livello chiave in area 0,80600. Questa zona rappresenta una resistenza molto importante, da seguire con estrema attenzione. Abbiamo avuto un ritorno dei prezzi al di sotto di quest"area, ma il breakout si è dimostrato molto debole perdendo la sua affidabilità.


NZD/USD: il cambio si trova vicino l"area di resistenza posta a 0,73900. Seguire il comportamento del mercato se dovessimo tornare su questo livello, dato che potrebbero esserci utili segnali per la nostra operatività.


USD/CAD: il cambio mostra una forza discesista ben visibile. Seguire con attenzione gli ultimi minimi del mercato posti a 1,20750, specialmente se dovessimo avere un nuovo test di questa zona di prezzo.


USD/CHF: il cambio mostra una notevole forza rialzista, recuperando in poche sedute il terreno perso precedentemente. Seguire la dinamica dei prezzi in area di resistenza 0,96200. Questa zona è da considerarsi importante per le contrattazioni di medio breve termine.


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Video analisi Forex del 13 settembre

Buongiorno a tutti i lettori di Investing.com,


di seguito, proponiamo una video analisi sul mercato valutario eseguita da Fabrizio Alessandro di Live Trading Room.


Buona visione.


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Due utili consigli per non farsi male con le Criptovalute

Un saluto a tutti,


oggi vediamo brevemente due utili consigli per non farsi male, investendo in criptovalute.


Buona visione.


Alessandro


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La sterlina debole fa salire l’inflazione

Ieri la sterlina britannica ha compiuto un forte rialzo, toccando il massimo da un anno contro il biglietto verde, perché gli investitori prevedono che la sorpresa al rialzo dell’inflazione costringerà la BoE a intervenire.


La coppia GBP/USD è salita più dello 0,90% martedì, massimo dal settembre del 2016, sulla scia della pubblicazione di livelli d’inflazione più alti del previsto ad agosto.


In effetti, l’indice primario si è attestato al 2,9% a/a rispetto al 2,8% delle previsioni medie e del 2,6% del mese precedente.


L’indice di fondo, che esclude le componenti più volatili, è risultato pari al 2,7% a/a rispetto al 2,5% previsto e al 2,4% di luglio, suggerendo che l’aumento dei prezzi dei carburanti non è l’unica ragione di questo rialzo.


La brusca svalutazione della sterlina degli ultimi mesi ha infatti influito sul costo delle merci importate, diventate più care.


La voce abbigliamento e calzature è salita del 4,6% negli ultimi 12 mesi, contribuendo a 0,26 punti del tasso sull’inflazione CPIH (rispetto al -0,07% di un anno fa), e l’impennata dei prezzi di ristoranti e hotel ha pesato per 0,35 punti (rispetto a 0,23 di un anno fa).


Stamattina è stato pubblicato il tasso ILO sulla disoccupazione, sceso al 4,3% a luglio rispetto al 4,4% di un mese fa; la variazione nell’occupazione mostra un incremento di 181 mila unità rispetto alle 150 mila delle previsioni medie e alle 125 mila di giugno.


Invece le retribuzioni settimanali medie sono rimaste stabili, al 2,1% a/a, a fronte del 2,2% previsto.


L’assenza di pressioni al rialzo sulla crescita delle retribuzioni suggerisce che il reddito disponibile invariato delle famiglie non genererà un’accelerazione del recupero dell’inflazione.


Inoltre, dall’inizio dell’anno la sterlina si è stabilizzata, anche se non ha recuperato del tutto, e ciò allenterebbe un po’ le pressioni al rialzo sull’inflazione derivanti dal tasso di cambio.


Alla luce di questo scenario, domani la BoE non interverrà, soprattutto perché gli effetti negativi della Brexit ancora non si vedono.


Gli investitori monitoreranno quindi le variazioni nei comportamenti di voto.


Noi crediamo che la BoE non correrà il rischio di restringere la sua politica monetaria, dal momento che i negoziati sulla Brexit sono appena iniziati e, cosa ancora più importante, che l’UE non agevolerà i negoziatori britannici.


L’incertezza è troppa e un passo falso dei banchieri potrebbe costare molto caro all’economia del Regno Unito.


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Ecco come cambia un'analisi con time frame differenti

La video analisi panoramica sui mercati, proposta da Renato Decarolis.


Buona visione.


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Quali occasioni dai mercati finanziari?



Un saluto a tutti i lettori di Investing.com,


di seguito una completa video-analisi settimanale dove vengono analizzati:


- Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY


- Commodities: Future Oro, Future Petrolio Brent


- Indici: DAX, FTSE MIB, SP500


Grazie per la vostra attenzione!
Team Visionforex.info


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British Pound Bulls Tested Ahead of BoE; RBA Wedges Deeper into a Corner


Talking Points:


- The British Pound is seeing some element of pullback against most major currencies this morning, as weak wage growth raises questions around the BoE’s stance towards inflation at tomorrow’s rate decision.


- The RBA appears to be backed into a corner regarding rate policy, and RBA Board Member Ian Harper had some fantastic quotes on the matter.





- IG Client Sentiment remains elevated in both GBP/USD and AUD/USD, at -2.00 and -1.72, respectively. Given retail sentiment’s traditional contrarian nature, this is a bullish indication for both pairs.


- Want to see how GBP and AUD have held up to the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts? Click here for full access.


To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here.


Over the past couple of days, we’ve looked at the rather aggressive topside run that’s begun to show in the British Pound. Coming into the month of August, the British Pound was surging as expectations began to build that the BoE may move away from their extremely dovish monetary policy. But when that didn’t happen at the bank’s Super Thursday on August 3rd, sellers came back into the currency and GBP spent much of the month moving lower. But after setting a low around the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, GBP/USD began to trend higher and that theme really began to heat up last week. When yesterday’s inflation for the month of August printed at 2.9%, the British Pound rallied up to fresh highs ahead of a pivotal BoE meeting sitting on the docket for tomorrow.


GBP/USD Daily: Rally to Fresh Highs as 2017 Bullish Up-Trend Continues


British Pound Bulls Tested Ahead of BoE; RBA Wedges Deeper into a Corner

Chart prepared by James Stanley


But that trend is facing a test this morning: U.K. unemployment fell to 4.3% for the quarter ending in July, and this was the lowest jobless rate in the economy in 42 years. And while this, on its face, is a good thing – wage growth remained weak, printing below expectations at 2.1%; and this is a big deal, because lacking wage growth is the primary push-point mentioned by BoE Governor Mark Carney as to why the bank hasn’t yet adjusted interest rates to account for rising. This added a bit of skepticism to the recent topside run in GBP, as this may be the ammunition that the BoE needs to justify retaining the uber-dovish stance in regards to monetary policy.


British Pound Bulls Tested Ahead of BoE; RBA Wedges Deeper into a Corner

Chart prepared by James Stanley


While 2.1% wage growth is above the BoE’s target of 2%, it’s still well below the 2.9% clip that inflation has been running at. This continued squeeze of the British consumer has started to show in consumer spending, and this combined with the ‘Brexit uncertainty’ that Mr. Carney has mentioned multiple times as a factor hindering business investment makes for a difficult backdrop for the Bank of England to investigate higher rate policy.


Will tomorrow see the BoE finally capitulate to rising forces of inflation? Probably not. The BoE has been reticent to make moves at non-Super Thursday rate decisions, so for any actual changes we’re probably looking at November. But – we could hear Mr. Carney warn that a hike may be on the table should inflation remain strong, and that could create some significant volatility in GBP cross-rates as traders attempt to get in-front of any potential tightening that may take place, much as we’ve seen in the Euro throughout the bulk of this year. In that scenario, established support in the region that runs from 1.3117-1.3187 could be attractive for bullish continuation plays.


RBA Backed into a Corner – Ian Harper With Some Great Quotes


In what was probably one of the more entertaining Central Banker exchanges in recent past, RBA Board Member Ian Harper gave some fantastic quotes concerning the stance of the bank in regards to the recent run in the currency. As the U.S. Dollar down-trend has deepened throughout 2017, this has lifted many major currencies, the Australian Dollar included, as AUD/USD surged above the .8000 spot rate for the first time since May of 2014. And while the trend has slowed as prices have continued to test this major psychological level, questions have begun to build as to whether the RBA may look to adjust policy to further aid growth within the Australian economy.


AUD/USD Daily: USD Weakness Drives AUD/USD Above .8000 For First Time Since 2015


British Pound Bulls Tested Ahead of BoE; RBA Wedges Deeper into a Corner

Chart prepared by James Stanley


But after Mr. Harper’s comments yesterday, that whole idea sounds rather ludicrous. Mr. Harper responded to the question of potential rate hikes by saying: “As well as we’re doing, the Australian economy is still operating below its potential.” He went on to say, “So long as that is the case, why would anyone be suggesting tightening monetary policy when the economy is operating below potential? I mean hello?”


This further highlights the interest in keeping interest rates low, but in Australia there is another problem to consider, and that’s the elevated real estate prices that have kept the bank in a rather proactive stance in the recent past, with a heavy focus on macro-prudential policies. The concern is that lower interest rates will continue to stoke real estate prices, furthering the fear of a bubble. So, this puts the RBA in a spot where they can’t really cut rates unless there is a material deterioration of the Australian consumer, and the strengthening Australian Dollar can soon become a headwind to the resilience that’s been seen in that space.


When asked if the RBA was looking at some form of intervention to soften the spot rate in AUD, Mr. Harper again opined with a great quote: “If you’re proposing that there’s some council of intervention here, what are you going to do, try and influence the U.S. Dollar? Give me a break.”


This can keep the Aussie as an excellent counterpart for short-USD strategies, particularly as the currency exhibits further hints of sustaining the recent break above the .8000 psychological level. If we do, at some point, see a reversal in the U.S. Dollar where this runaway weakness becomes runaway strength, that paradigm can certainly flip as the RBA has not taken a defined stance in either direction, and Aussie weakness can certainly begin to show if that scenario takes place.


The fact that the RBA appears unable to make a move in either direction, with higher rates threatening to further hit the Australian consumer and lower rates potentially putting more air into the bubble of Australian real estate prices – this could make the Aussie as an excellent counterpart for positioning strategies in the weeks/months ahead; looking to latch on to whatever preeminent theme is available in the market. Of recent, it’s been USD-weakness so the topside of AUD/USD looks really attractive, but if we do see Yen weakness (or strength) take over, AUD/JPY could be an excellent venue to look for that volatility.


AUD/USD Four-Hour: Potential Support Zones Applied


British Pound Bulls Tested Ahead of BoE; RBA Wedges Deeper into a Corner

Chart prepared by James Stanley


--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com


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British Pound Bulls Tested Ahead of BoE; RBA Wedges Deeper into a Corner
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Carlyle to sell South Korean security firm ADT Caps: sources

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Private equity firm Carlyle Group is planning a sale of South Korean security systems company ADT Caps in what could be the country’s biggest M&A deal in two years, sources with knowledge of the matter said.

Carlyle has enlisted Morgan Stanley to help sell the business, two of the sources said, with another adding the sale process would be launched this year. The sources could not be named because details of the deal aren’t public.

Carlyle declined to comment, while Morgan Stanley had no immediate comment when contacted by Reuters. ADT Caps was not immediately available for comment after regular business hours.

A former unit of Tyco International Inc, ADT Caps offers central monitoring, access control, video surveillance control and other integrated security services and was bought by Carlyle in an auction for $1.93 billion in February 2014.

Affinity Equity Partners, Bain Capital, Carlyle Group, KKR and South Korea’s MBK Partners were among those to submit bids for ADT Caps in 2014, which at the time was one of South Korea’s largest buyouts.

It is not clear how much ADT Caps is valued at now, but industry sources say a private equity firm typically looks for a return of at least twice its initial investment, which means a sale of the business could potentially fetch around $4 billion.

The biggest recent transaction involving private equity in South Korea was in September 2015, when Tesco sold Homeplus for $6.1 billion to a consortium led by MBK Partners.

Reporting by Kane Wu; Additional reporting by Elzio Barreto in Hong Kong and Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul; Editing by Alexander Smith and Mark Potter

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Carlyle to sell South Korean security firm ADT Caps: sources
Carlyle to sell South Korean security firm ADT Caps: sources
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Quali occasioni dai mercati finanziari?



Un saluto a tutti i lettori di Investing.com,


di seguito una completa video-analisi settimanale dove vengono analizzati:


- Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY


- Commodities: Future Oro, Future Petrolio Brent


- Indici: DAX, FTSE MIB, SP500


Grazie per la vostra attenzione!
Team Visionforex.info


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Quali occasioni dai mercati finanziari?
Quali occasioni dai mercati finanziari?
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Diretta Forex, analisi giornaliera del 12 settembre, 2017

Buongiorno ai lettori di Investing.com,


di seguito, troverete le indicazioni operative per la giornata odierna, con il rilascio dei livelli operativi di prezzo e ciclici inerenti ai principali cambi oltre a indici di borsa e commodities.


CAMBI ANALIZZATI:


EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USDJPY,EURGBP ,


INDICI E MATERIE PRIME:


DAX


Petrolio Greggio


Oro


Di seguito la video analisi (Durata 16:15 minuti)


livelli intraday del 12-09-2017
livelli intraday del 12-09-2017


[embedded content]



Diretta Forex, analisi giornaliera del 12 settembre, 2017
Diretta Forex, analisi giornaliera del 12 settembre, 2017
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BCE: previsto l’intervento del vice presidente Constancio

A una settimana dalla riunione della BCE, durante la quale si è deciso di mantenere i tassi invariati, il vice presidente della BCE Constancio terrà un discorso a Francoforte e c’è da scommettere che gran parte della discussione verterà sull’inflazione dell’Eurozona, in particolare, sulle difficoltà della BCE nel dar impulso ai prezzi al consumo.


Già all’inizio di settembre Constancio aveva detto che la mancanza d’inflazione continuerà a causa soprattutto delle difficoltà economiche degli Stati Uniti e dei rischi geopolitici che peseranno sulle condizioni economiche a livello globale.


Si potrebbe dunque dire che il massiccio programma di QE non ha generato i risultati previsti.


Gran parte dei titoli di Stato europei a scadenza breve ora mostra un tasso d’interesse negativo e ormai da un po’, per effetto del denaro gratuito, gli investitori negoziano bond piuttosto che rendimenti per la rivalutazione del loro capitale.


Tutto ciò è alla base dell’inflazione bassa.


I mercati prevedono una normalizzazione e rendimenti degli asset più alti ma, quando la BCE rimuoverà gli stimoli, sono probabili ingenti perdite in varie classi di asset.


Stando alle voci, la BCE dovrebbe essere pronta a ridurre il suo imponente programma di acquisto titoli, passando da 60 miliardi a 20 o 40 miliardi di euro al mese, alla prossima riunione di fine ottobre.


I mercati sono ancora nettamente rialzisti sull’euro, anche se non crediamo che siano eccessivamente ottimisti sulla Banca Centrale Europea, almeno per ora.


BCE: previsto l’intervento del vice presidente Constancio
BCE: previsto l’intervento del vice presidente Constancio
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