Posizioni retail sul cambio Eur/Usd

Buongiorno trader,

vediamo come sono posizionati i traders retail sul cambio EUR/USD per la giornata di oggi 13 settembre.

Si registra un aumento delle posizioni short rispetto alla giornata di ieri di un 2.3%, sulla zona che va da 1.1940 e 1.1970.

L’area psicologica di 1.20, come segnalato nelle precedenti analisi, potrebbe continuare a fare da calamita e mantenere il cambio in un noioso laterale fino al prossimo evento macro di rilievo.

La media totale resta sempre short con un 59.9% su oltre 15 fonti analizzate.

Segnalo anche interessanti opportunità sul fronte forze valute daily dove abbiamo:

Forza su : GBP e NZD

Debolezza su: JPY e CHF

Termometro Forex

Posizioni retail sul cambio Eur/Usd
Posizioni retail sul cambio Eur/Usd
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Listini europei positivi, a Milano giù Mediaset, bene bancari

Investing.com – oggi, seduta decisamente tranquilla, per la quotazione del contratto future sull’indice milanese.

La quotazione del contratto Future FTSE MIB con scadenza a dicembre, è al momento di 22150 punti, in guadagno del +0.19%, rispetto a ieri.

È generalmente positiva la situazione generale dei listini europei che vede segnare, in questo momento, Amsterdam (+0.32 %), Parigi (+0.18 %), Euro Stoxx 50 (+0.32%), Zurigo (+0.09%), Francoforte (+0.14 %), Londra (-0.13 %), Madrid (+0.27 %)

La quotazione del contratto future FTSE MIB si trova oggi in una situazione attendista, con movimenti lenti e contenuti. L’area frequentata oggi è quella intorno ai 22150 punti con possibilità di estensione up verso i primi target rialzisti di 22215 e 22275 punti. Viceversa, una correzione ribassista potrebbe riportare la quotazione verso i valori compresi fra i valori di 22080 e 22000 punti. valori sui quali, se testati si potrebbe assistere ad una ripresa degli acquisti. Importanti ai fini dell"avvio di possibili movimenti di mercato saranno i dati usa in arrivo nel pomeriggio.

In linea, gli scambi odierni, con quelli della seduta precedente, sino al momento attuale, i volumi di scambio sulla piazza milanese, con 358 Mln di azioni scambiate per un volume di 1455 Mln di euro.

La piazza europea con la migliore performance (indici) è, al momento della presente lettura, Amsterdam, con una performance del +0.42%.

In maggioranza positive, per ora, le performance dei titoli bancari (FTSE MIB), che, vedono 8 titoli su 10 in guadagno, Il titolo migliore è al momento Banco BPM (MI:PMII), con una performance del +2.17%.

Al momento, fra i titoli peggiori del FTSE MIB troviamo Mediaset (MI:MS): -3.75%, Luxottica (MI:LUX) (-1.85%), Terna (MI:TRN) (-1.64%) e Telecom (MI:TLIT) (-0.89%).

Fra i migliori della seduta ci sono al momento: Banco Bpm (MI:BAMI) (+1.99%), Saipem (MI:SPMI) (+1.79%), Tenaris (MI:TENR) (+1.45%) e Unipol (MI:UNPI) Gruppo (+1.48%).

In discesa il cambio EUR/USD che scambia a 1.1930, in diminuzione del -0.34%.

Nel calendario economico odierno, fra le maggiori notizie troviamo: indice IPP e IAPC in Spagna, indice IPP in Svizzera, PIL in Svezia, IPP mensile, scorte di petrolio greggio, inventario di Cushing Oklahoma delle giacenze di Crude Oil e bilancio del budget federale negli USA, indice dei salari medi inclusi bonus, variazione nelle richieste di sussidi di disoccupazione e tasso di disoccupazione in Gran Bretagna.

Future FTSE MIB, grafico su tf giornaliero

Listini europei positivi, a Milano giù Mediaset, bene bancari
Listini europei positivi, a Milano giù Mediaset, bene bancari
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EUR/USD to Pare Losses on Lackluster U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Snaps Bearish Series Ahead of Australia Employment Report Despite Cautious RBA.

- EUR/USD to Pare Losses on Lackluster U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

- Sign Up for the DailyFX Trading Webinarsfor an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD snaps the series of lower highs & lows from earlier this week and the pair may continue to gain ground over the next 24-hours of trade as Australia Employment is projected to increase another 20.0K in August.

A further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adopt an improved outlook for the region, but the central bank appears to be in no rush to lift the cash rate off of the record-low as board member Ian Harper strikes a cautious tone and argues ‘the Australian economy is still operating below its potential.’ In turn, a lackluster employment report may trigger a larger pullback in AUD/USD, with the pair at risk of giving back the advance from the August-low (0.7808) as Governor Philip Lowe and Co. appear to be on course to retain the accommodative stance throughout 2017.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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• Broader outlook for AUD/USD remains constructive as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the bullish trends from earlier this year.


• However, the failed attempt to clear the 0.8150 (100% expansion) hurdle raises the risk for a near-term correction especially as the momentum indicator struggles to push into overbought territory and appears to be deviating with the exchange rate.


• As a result, AUD/USD may test the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7930 (50% retracement) to 0.7940 (61.8% retracement) for support, which sits just below the 20-Day SMA (0.7961), with the next downside region of interest coming in around 0.7850 (38.2% retracement) to 0.7860 (61.8% expansion).

EUR/USD struggles to retain the rebound from earlier this week as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) picked up for the second consecutive month in September, but the below-forecast print raises the risk for another batch of mixed data prints as many Fed officials ‘saw some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2 percent for longer than they currently expected, and several indicated that the risks to the inflation outlook could be tilted to the downside.’

Even though the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to uptick to an annualized 1.8% in August, a decline in the core rate of inflation may ultimately spark a bearish reaction in the greenback as it dampens the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) scope to deliver three rate-hikes in 2017. As a result, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may outline a more shallow path for the Fed Funds rate at the September 20 interest rate decision, and the central bank may merely attempt to buy more time as price growth continues to run below the 2% target.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

• USD/CAD may stage a larger rebound as the 1.2080 (61.8% expansion) hurdle offers near-term support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be deviating with price as it fails to mark a fresh 2017-low.


• Topside targets are back on the radar as the RSI bounces back from oversold territory, with a break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2210 (50% expansion) to 1.2230 (50% retracement) opening up the 1.2350 (38.2% expansion) hurdle followed by the former-support zone around 1.2440 (23.6% expansion).

Retail Sentiment

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• Retail trader data shows 36.2% of traders are net-long AUD/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.76 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since June 04 when AUD/USD traded near 0.7456; price has moved 7.5% higher since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Aug 31 when AUD/USD traded near 0.79388. The number of traders net-long is 18.5% higher than yesterday and 12.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 2.1% lower from last week.


• Retail trader data shows 36.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.71 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since April 18 when EUR/USD traded near 1.08642; price has moved 10.0% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.4% higher than yesterday and 15.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% lower than yesterday and 6.0% lower from last week.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David"s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

EUR/USD to Pare Losses on Lackluster U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
EUR/USD to Pare Losses on Lackluster U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
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Euro/dollaro stabile sotto 1,20 in attesa inflazione Usa, frena sterlina

© Reuters. Banconote da 10 dollari e 10 euro

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Euro/dollaro complessivamente stabile, poco sotto la soglia di 1,20, con gli operatori cauti nel prendere nuove posizioni in attesa della pubblicazione domani dei dati di agosto sui prezzi al consumo Usa.

Nel corso della seduta il cambio si è mosso entro un corridoio alquanto stretto, compreso tra 1,1960 e 1,1994; venerdì scorso, all"indomani dell"ultimo meeting Bce, l"euro/dollaro era salito fino a 1,2092, massimo da gennaio 2015.

"I dati di inflazione Usa saranno un test significativo per le possibilità di ripresa del dollaro" commenta lo strategist di Ing Viraj Patel, aggiungendo che in assenza di rilevanti sorprese positive l"attuale contesto tende a penalizzare il biglietto verde nei confronti delle altre divise.

Oggi intanto i dati sui prezzi alla produzione Usa hanno mostrato in agosto un incremento del 2,4% tendenziale, più consistente dell"1,9% del mese precedente ma leggermente inferiore al 2,5% atteso dagli economisti.

Il dollaro cede leggermente nei confronti dello yen, pur tenendo in area 110, ampiamente sopra i minimi da novembre toccati solo la settimana scorsa a 107,33.

Rallenta la sterlina, che ha registrato un minimo intraday sul dollaro a 1,3253 dopo aver superato nella prima mattinata quota 1,33, toccando un massimo da un anno a 1,3328. Il cambio tratta ora in area 1,3275.

I dati di ieri sull"inflazione britannica, oltre il 2% in agosto, hanno riacceso le attese per un intervento restrittivo della Banca d"Inghilterra (anche se non già nel meeting di domani); a raffreddare la speculazione sono tuttavia arrivati questa mattina i numeri sui salari, che appaiono ancora in ritardo rispetto al rafforzamento dei prezzi al consumo.

Euro/dollaro stabile sotto 1,20 in attesa inflazione Usa, frena sterlina
Euro/dollaro stabile sotto 1,20 in attesa inflazione Usa, frena sterlina
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Weekly US oil inventories +5889K vs +4911K expected

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Weekly US oil inventories +5889K vs +4911K expected
Weekly US oil inventories +5889K vs +4911K expected
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US dollar gets back into gear

The dollar momentum continues

The US dollar is at or near the best levels of the day, right across the board. With the gains, USD/JPY has broken above yesterday"s high to the best level since Sept 1.

A big test for the pair will be 110.67, which was the Aug 31 high. A break would end the series of lower highs that"s plagued the pair.

The bigger story is the relief rally in the US dollar. Or is it something more than that?

See a post I wrote earlier this week on whether or not it"s sustainable.

What needs to happen to make this US dollar bounce last

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US dollar gets back into gear
US dollar gets back into gear
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Euro spills to a six-day low. Tax plan helping US dollar

EUR/USD drops to 1.1913

The euro ran some stops in a quick move down below Tuesday"s low of 1.1925.

It"s more about the sudden optimism for the US dollar that"s taken hold since Hurricane Irma damage trailed estimates.

That was given a further lift by headlines that are crossing about a release of the US tax plan on September 25. The market is starting to think it could really happen.

Euro spills to a six-day low. Tax plan helping US dollar
Euro spills to a six-day low. Tax plan helping US dollar
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