British Pound Headed for Rally on Net-Short Positions

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GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 42.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.37 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 12 when GBPUSD traded near 1.24863; price has moved 3.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.6% lower than yesterday and 5.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.0% lower than yesterday and 1.9% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

British Pound Headed for Rally on Net-Short Positions
British Pound Headed for Rally on Net-Short Positions
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S&P: Ratings On United Kingdom Affirmed At 'AA/A-1+'

Outlook remains negative

S&P: Ratings On United Kingdom Affirmed At "AA/A-1+"
S&P: Ratings On United Kingdom Affirmed At "AA/A-1+"
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Pimco shutters RAE Worldwide Fundamental Advantage PLUS Fund

By Jennifer Ablan
| NEW YORK

Pacific Investment Management Co on Friday liquidated its RAE Worldwide Fundamental Advantage PLUS Fund, a global-neutral fund which had reached more than $4 billion in assets under management in 2014, according to the Newport Beach, Calif"s website.

The portfolio"s strategy included long exposure to a portfolio of stocks through the "RAE Fundamental U.S. Large Model Portfolio" and short exposure to the S&P 500 Index, while overlaying this equity market neutral exposure with absolute return bond alpha strategy through "AR Bond Alpha Strategy".

The RAE Fundamental U.S. Large Model Portfolio stocks are selected by Pimco"s long-time subadviser, Research Affiliates, LLC, which was founded and chaired by Rob Arnott, known on Wall Street as the "godfather of smart beta."

"We constantly review our suite of strategies and may liquidate a fund from time to time if we feel it no longer serves our clients needs," Michael Reid, spokesman for Pimco, said in a statement to Reuters. "We are committed to RAE and will be expanding RA relationship in equities with (the) upcoming launch of RAFI Multi-Factor ETFs."

Pimco, a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz SE, had $1.51 trillion in assets, has collaborated with Arnott"s firm Research Affiliates for more than a decade.

In 2015, Pimco expanded Pimco"s RAE Fundamental lineup, which uses Research Affiliates" "smart beta," or "fundamental indexation," strategy of selecting, weighting and rebalancing holdings on the basis of characteristics other than market capitalization.

Two years ago, Pimco introduced a slate of six new equity funds in collaboration with Research Affiliates to cover U.S. large, U.S. small, international, global, global excluding U.S. and emerging markets.

(Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Pimco shutters RAE Worldwide Fundamental Advantage PLUS Fund
Pimco shutters RAE Worldwide Fundamental Advantage PLUS Fund
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European stocks end the mixed. Gains for the week.

French election gains for the week

The European stocks are ending the day mixed.

• Euro Stoxx 600 is ending down -0.1%


• France"s Cac is ending up +0.12%


• Spain"s Ibex is up 0.5%


• UK FTSE is down -0.29%


• Germans Dax is down -0.05%


• Italy"s FTSE MIB is up 0.06%

For the week gains from the French election held

• France ends up 4.11%


• Spain ends up 3.47%


• UK ends up 1.26%


• Germany ends up 3.23%


• Italy ends up 4.39%.

For the month:

• France ended up 2.83%


• Spain ends up 2.42%


• UK ends down -1.62%


• Germany ends up 1.02%


• Italy ends up 0.57%

European stocks end the mixed. Gains for the week.
European stocks end the mixed. Gains for the week.
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IFOP poll has Macron at 60% and LePen at 40%

2nd round election poll results.

Today"s IFOP poll shows Macron at 60% and LePen at 40% from decided voters in their latest poll.

• 29% of the voters plan to abstain in the 2nd round


• 62% of the Melenchon voters from the 1st round plan to vote on May 7th


• 86% of Macron backers and 85% of the LePen voters plan on voting in the 2nd round


• 36% of Melenchon backers plan to abstain with 15% for LePen and 49% for Macron


• 30% of the backers for Fillon plan to abstain in the 2nd round. Of those who plan on voting, 29% plan to vote for LePen.  

The large gains remain for Macron to win the 2nd round vote. 

IFOP poll has Macron at 60% and LePen at 40%
IFOP poll has Macron at 60% and LePen at 40%
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EUR/USD Pares Gains as Core U.S. PCE Climbs Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Pares Gains as Core U.S. PCE Climbs to 2.0% Ahead of FOMC.

- USD/CAD Climbs to Fresh 2017 High as Canada GDP Holds Flat in February.

EUR/USD struggles to retain the advance following the larger-than-expected uptick in the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) as data prints coming out of the U.S. highlight a similar dynamic, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) preferred gauge for inflation climbed to an annualized 2.0% during the first three-months of 2017.

Even though the Fed is widely anticipated to retain the current policy at its next interest rate decision on May 3, Fed Fund Futures are still pricing a greater than 70% probability for a June rate-hike, and Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the committee appears to be on course to fulfil its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability. Despite the usual quiet period ahead of the two-day meeting, fresh comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, both 2017-voting members, may sway market expectations as the central bank start to lay out a more detailed exit strategy.

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EUR/USD Daily

Chart - Created Using Trading View

• Nevertheless, keep in mind that the broader outlook for the euro-dollar exchange rate has become less bearish as it makes a more meaningful attempt to break out of the downward trend carried over from 2016, with price & the RSI preserving the bullish formations from earlier this year, but the recent resilience in the single-currency may push the European Central Bank (ECB) to further tame market expectations as President Mario Draghi and Co. pledge to ‘look through transient developments in HICP inflation, which have no implication for the medium-term outlook for price stability.’


• With that said, a hawkish FOMC policy statement accompanied by a 193K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may keep EUR/USD capped over the days ahead, with the pair at risk for a larger pullback especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to push into overbought territory and struggles to preserve the bullish formation from earlier this month.


• Will keep a close eye on the monthly opening range for May amid the key event risks coming out of the U.S., but the lack of momentum to hold above the topside hurdle around 1.0880 (61.8% expansion) to 1.0910 (38.2% expansion) may push EUR/USD back towards the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0780 (100% expansion) to 1.0790 (38.2% expansion), with the next area of interest coming in around 1.0660 (50% expansion) to 1.0680 (78.6% expansion).

Currency	Last	High	Low	Daily Change (pip)	Daily Range (pip)
EUR/USD	1.0900	1.0947	1.0857	27	90

The Canadian dollar lags behind its major counterparts, with USD/CAD advancing to a fresh 2017-high of 1.3680 as Canada’s monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report showed the growth rate holding flat in February. The recent weakness in the loonie may gather pace going into May as the Bank of Canada (BoC) looks poised to keep the benchmark interest rate at the record-low for the foreseeable future, but Canada’s Employment report may offer some relief as the economy is anticipated to add another 20.0K jobs in April.

USD/CAD Daily

Chart - Created Using Trading View

• Despite initial signs of a divergence, the move higher in the RSI raises the risk for a further advance in the exchange rate especially as the oscillator pushes deeper into overbought territory; need to see the momentum indicator highlight a textbook sell signal and slip below 70 to set the stage for a pullback.


• Nevertheless, the ongoing improvement in the labor market may have little to no impact on the monetary policy outlook as the BoC argues ‘CPI inflation is now at the 2 per cent target, largely because of the transitory effects of higher oil prices and carbon pricing measures in two provinces, as well as other temporary factors;’ the deviating paths for monetary policy should continue to encourage a long-term bullish outlook for USD/CAD, with the pair still operating within the ascending channel carried over from the previous year.


• Even though price approaches the top of the channel, a close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3630 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3670 (78.6% expansion) will keep the near-term bias tilted to the upside, with the next topside hurdle coming in around 1.3790 (100% expansion) to 1.3840 (61.8% retracement).

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• Retail trader data shows 30.4% of traders are net-long EUR/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.29 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since April 18 when EUR/USD traded near 1.07291; price has moved 1.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.8% higher than yesterday and 22.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.6% lower than yesterday and 30.4% higher from last week.


• Retail trader data shows 32.9% of traders are net-long USD/CAD with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.04 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since April 18 when USD/CAD traded near 1.33818; price has moved 2.2% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.9% higher than yesterday and 9.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.4% lower than yesterday and 6.0% higher from last week.

For More Information on Retail Sentiment, Check Out the New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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EUR/USD Pares Gains as Core U.S. PCE Climbs Ahead of FOMC Meeting
EUR/USD Pares Gains as Core U.S. PCE Climbs Ahead of FOMC Meeting
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Currency	Last	High	Low	Daily Change (pip)	Daily Range (pip)
USD/CAD	1.3679	1.3697	1.3625	46	72

Occhi sui dati macro

La video analisi panoramica sui mercati, proposta da Renato Decarolis.

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© 2017 Renato Decarolis

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Occhi sui dati macro
Occhi sui dati macro
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