Yellen to disappoint USD bulls at Jackson Hole - Citi

Citi have been surveying the possible Jackson Hole outcome and dollar bulls won't like the results

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  The overwhelming expectation is of a dovish hike signal
  
  


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  85% see Yellen leaning to 1 hike in 2016
  
  


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  Around 66% Yellen to indicate Dec as the main date
  
  


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  Respondents see the market expecting just over 50% probability that a hike is mentioned in her speech
  
  


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  If Yellen signals a 2016 hike with a dovish message for the future nearly 50% expect Emerging markets as the main gainers. Investors are expected to;
  
  


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  Buy EM
  
  


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  Buy S&P
  
  


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  Buy US 10yr Treasuries
  
  


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  Sell US 2's
  
  


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  Buy EM debt or other parts of US yield curve
  
  


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  Two thirds think Yellen won't change inflation language of 2% target but 29% think The Fed will change their targets in the next 2 years
  
  

The survey was run among leveraged, real money, Citi colleagues, corps and some central bankers, among others.

Our pal @MilanCutkocvic caught the details

Right at the beginning of her tenure, Yellen very rarely strayed from the beaten path at speeches and events. As time has gone on she has opened up a bit more but has never really dropped big bomb. That's left the market having to infer from the scraps of her words. Will that change at Jackson Hole? It's always possible but the odds are fairly low.

Yellen to disappoint USD bulls at Jackson Hole - Citi
Yellen to disappoint USD bulls at Jackson Hole - Citi
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