ForexLive Asia FX news: Regional stocks & AUD lower

Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 2 November 2016

• BNZ says NZ simply does not need lower (& here"s why the RBNZ will cut next week)


• Deutsche Bank on political risk for the EUR (its not what you think, this is about Merkel)


• China Commerce Ministry: Large downward pressure on foreign trade in Q4


• NZ banks respond to today"s data (employment strong, inflation expectations up)


• BOJ"s Kuroda: Risks to economic outlook skewed to the downside


• Stan Chart echoes Deutsche Bank during GFC "roiled credit markets in Europe"


• New Zealand Q4 2 year inflation expectations: 1.68% (prior 1.65%)


• I"m seeing some green on my list of equity indexes. Oh, wait ... that"s VIX :-D


• Responses to the Australian Sep. building approvals data miss


• PBOC sets yuan reference rate for today at 6.7562 (vs. yesterday at 6.7734)


• Australian press: "Why the federal budget is still in trouble"


• UK economy - private forecasters expect quicker growth than the BoE does


• Australia building approvals for September: -8.7% m/m (vs. expected -3.0%)


• UK BRC Shop Price Index for October: -1.7% y/y (September was -1.8%)


• Can"t get enough Kuroda? He"s speaking in parliament today, from midday Tokyo


• Australia "national fiscal outlook has deteriorated since 2015-16 mid-year fiscal updates"


• Man kept €102,790 cash in his dunny. Doesn"t everyone?


• Moody"s Analytics election model predicts Clinton win (but there"s a but)


• NZ - Westpac hikes its forecast for Fonterra 2016/17 payout to $5.80


• New Zealand employment data (Q3): Unemployment rate 4.9% (5.1% expected)


• Japan press: "Japan"s GDP up 0.2% in September: think tank"


• UK Chancellor Hammond says he"ll take a flexible approach in Autumn budget


• Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 2 November 2016


• Private oil inventory data shows much bigger than expected build, oil price drops

The themes that were active during the US time zone carried on here into Asia today, with US political risks taking centre stage (although this interest rate market development does not seem to have filtered into a broad market consciousness, and maybe it should: Standard Chartered Plc roiled credit markets in Europe on Tuesday, when the U.K. bank broke with convention by saying it wouldn"t buy back its junior bonds at the first opportunity.)

Local stock markets dropped, last time I looked this was about where we stood:

• Japan -1.7%


• Australia -1.5%


• Korea -1.3%


• Shanghai -0.5%


• Hong Kong -1.3%


• Taiwan -1.1%


• Singapore -0.5%

Data flow during the Asian session began with a blockbuster New Zealand employment result (data for Q3);

• New Zealand employment data (Q3): Unemployment rate 4.9% (5.1% expected)

The RBNZ "inflation expectations" report was later, which continued the trend of higher expectations from the 3 prior quarterly reports. The NZ data today, combined with the surge in dairy prices overnight, saw the NZD record a very solid performance on the session, with AUD/NZD a huge mover (AUD/USD lower along with the higher NZD/USD):

• BNZ says NZ simply does not need lower (& here"s why the RBNZ will cut next week)


• NZ banks respond to today"s data (employment strong, inflation expectations up)


• New Zealand Q4 2 year inflation expectations: 1.68% (prior 1.65%)


• NZ - Westpac hikes its forecast for Fonterra 2016/17 payout to $5.80

Australian news flow and data was more of the negative variety, building permits for the month missing badly:

• Responses to the Australian Sep. building approvals data miss


• Australian press: "Why the federal budget is still in trouble"


• Australia building approvals for September: -8.7% m/m (vs. expected -3.0%)


• Australia "national fiscal outlook has deteriorated since 2015-16 mid-year fiscal updates"

AUD suffered also from the "risk off" mood prevailing with AUD/USD down around 50 points at one stage today.

The yen too, was a mover, a beneficiary of the "risk off" flow into safety, USD/JPY extending its losses well under 104. USD/JPY is knocking on the door of session lows as I update

EUR and CHF had not quite so dramatic moves, both on the rise against the USD and challenging their overnight extreme prices.

Cable is more or less unchanged as I update.

Gold managed to eke out a gain, though a late US dip in price gave it a few dollars to recover first. Oil dropped in late US trade / early Asia time with a much larger build than expected for US crude inventories, as reported in the private survey from API. This data sometimes resembles the official data (and sometimes it doesn"t), so we do await official data from the US Energy Information Administration Wednesday morning US time.

ForexLive Asia FX news: Regional stocks & AUD lower
ForexLive Asia FX news: Regional stocks & AUD lower
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