Goldman Sachs preview of the Nonfarm Payroll report

Its NFP day for a look at the labor market in the US January

Before a look at what Goldman Sachs is expecting:

• Due at 1330GMT


• Headline expected is 180K


• Prior 156K

From GS:

• Forecast +200k in January

GS is looking for a reacceleration, citing:

• Lower-than-usual year-end layoffs


• Favourable weather effects


• Further improvement in labour market indicators

GS believes the U3 unemployment rate is likely to fall one-tenth to 4.6%

• which would mark a return to the cycle low


• in part driven by reduced year-end retail layoffs

GS expects average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y

• Reflecting firming labor markets & state-level minimum wage hikes

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I posted an earlier preview here: US January employment report - NFP preview

It includes a look at the ADP and claims data from earlier this week and what these indicate for the NFP (spoiler ... probably not much)

Goldman Sachs preview of the Nonfarm Payroll report
Goldman Sachs preview of the Nonfarm Payroll report
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