Forex news for US trading on February 3, 2017
- US stocks end the session with decent gains. Small gains for the week.
- CFTC commitment of traders: Most positions trimmed in the current week
- Key events/releases for the trading week starting February 5th
- US crude oil futures settle the week at $53.83/barrel
- Feds Williams. Sees some arguments to hike in March
- Baker Rigs: Total rigs up to 729 from 712. Oil up to 583 from 566
- Trump will order US labour dept to delay fiduciary rule by 180 days - Reuters
- A positive Friday for European stocks but most are down on the week
- Theresa May wins in court but only for today
- Is Morgan Stanley wavering over dollar bullishness?
- Fed"s Evans: Could be comfortable with 3 rate hikes in 2017
- Chinese finance minister to visit Australia & New Zealand next week
- US dollar sinks to the lows of the day, AUD/USD threatens yesterday"s high
- GBPUSD moves below 100 day MA, but snaps back....again
- White House"s Gary Cohn says tax, infrastructure, regulation are top policies
- It"s important the Fed gets inflation up to 2% goal says Evans
- December factory orders +1.3% vs +0.5% expected
- January 2017 US ISM non-manufacturing PMI 56.5 vs 57.0 exp
- Fed"s Evans gives a thumbs up to the January jobs report
- Fed"s Evans: Favors gradual rate hikes
- How bad was NFP for the Fed and a March hike?
- Average hourly earnings spark a US dollar whipsaw despite strong jobs growth
- January 2017 US non farm payrolls 227k vs 175k exp
- The strongest and weakest going into the US Employment report
The headline Non Farm payroll number showed a nice size gain of 227K vs 180K estimate and the greenback went initially higher. Then the realization that the average hourly earnings were light at 0.1% vs 0.3% estimate (YoY was 2.5% vs 2.8% estimate) AND the unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from 4.7%, sent the dollar back lower. Bond yields fell with the 10 year down near 5 bp at the lows, helping to contribute to the decline.
Later Factory orders were better at 1.3% vs 0.5% est, but ISM Non Manufacturing was lower than expectations at 56.5 vs 57.0. All that hodgepodge of data did not help the dollar, but quite frankly, it did not kill the dollar either.
In the NY afternoon, Fed"s Williams in a Bloomberg interview, reminded traders (in less liquid markets) that the March meeting was still on the table and that the Fed - if it delayed tightening - could be chasing runaway inflation later. That helped to give the dollar a little more of a bid into the close. Once again though, it was not a runaway move. For the day, the dollar was higher vs the GBP, unchanged vs. the CHF and CAD and lower modestly against the EUR, AUD and NZD.
Against the EUR, the EURUSD rose by about 0.20% on the day. Technically, the low - albeit after the 1st few seconds after the announcement- bottomed against the 1.0706 level (low was 1.0707). That level represents the 38.2% of the move down from the November high. The high stalled against the 100 day MA at 1.0794 (the high reached 1.0797). Each of those levels are key technical levels going into next weeks trading.
The USDJPY spiked above it"s 100 hour MA for a few seconds after the headline release. The rest of the day was spent below that MA level although the William"s comments did send the pair to a retest in NY afternoon trading (at 113.05). That test ran into sellers.
The GBPUSD was pressured into the employment report BUT has to contend with it"s 100 day MA at 1.2471 level. On 4 separate hourly bars, the price went below that key MA with the lowest of lows coming in at 1.2456, but each of those bars closed above the MA level. Support held, but rallies were limited too. The pair is ending the week just above the MA level at 1.2479. It will be in play in the new trading week. On the topside, this week, the GBPUSD moved away from the 100 and 200 hour MAS at 1.2559. IF the 100 day MA holds and there is a correction higher, that level will be targeted.
The AUDUSD took the US data more positively for pair (bearish for the USD). The price rallied toward the high from yesterday at 0.76953 BUT stalled just ahead of that level at 0.76947 (less than a pip short of the high). The pair is closing marginally off that level at 0.7680. The double top can still be broken next week BUT the double top gives traders cause for pause too.
Below is the snapshot of the major currencies % changes vs. each other for the day.
Below is the snapshot of the major currencies % changes vs each other for the week. For the week the JPY was the strongest. Stocks were generally lower (although the gains today in the US erased it"s declines). The GBP and the USD were the weakest for the week. The BOE on Thursday was less concerned about the pick up in inflation, while in the US, Trump bashed Japan and also was not shy in saying that the strong dollar was hurting the US economy.
Forexlive Americas Forex news wrap: US jobs strong. Wages disappoint.
Forexlive Americas Forex news wrap: US jobs strong. Wages disappoint.
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