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venerdì 3 febbraio 2017

China Caixin manufacturing PMI (January): 51.0 (expected at 51.8)

Well under the expected, in at 51.0 for January (51.8 expected)


Markit with the "key points":

  • January sees weaker increases in production and new orders

  • Despite rebound in new export business

  • Inflationary pressures soften slightly but remain sharp

Comment from Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group:

  • Lower than the average level in the fourth quarter last year

  • The sub-indices for output and new orders both weakened sharply from those in the preceding month

  • While stocks of purchases and finished goods both slid into contraction territory

  • Manufacturers appear to have become rather reluctant to restock

  • Input prices and output charges continued to rise rapidly, but at slower rates than in the previous month

  • The Chinese economy maintained stable growth in January. But the sub-indices showed that the current growth momentum may be hard to sustain. We must remain wary of downward pressures on the economy this year"

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This private survey is of a different sample than the official survey, generally smaller firms. The internals of the report are concerning as pointed out:

  • sub-indices for output and new orders both weakened sharply from those in the preceding month

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Earlier this week, official PMIs:



China Caixin manufacturing PMI (January): 51.0 (expected at 51.8)
China Caixin manufacturing PMI (January): 51.0 (expected at 51.8)
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