Forexlive Americas forex news wrap. Dollar ends mostly higher in quiet NA trade

Forex news for NY traders on February 17, 2017

• US stocks end the session higher.Nasdaq leads the way.


• CFTC commitment of traders report: CAD long position the biggest change


• US WTI Crude oil futures settle at $53.40 /bbl


• What"s up next week? A look at the key releases and events


• WSJ: US budget plan is bullish on Trump-onomics


• The NY Fed Nowcast for the current week stays at 3.1%


• Baker Hughes oil rigs 597 vs 591 last week


• USD: What"s next & how to trade it? - BofA Merrill


• European stocks end Friday with a loss but see green on the week


• Bill Gates talks about a robot tax


• Is Kuwait being naughty with their oil deal numbers?


• HSBC know exactly what"s behind the softer dollar


• USD "conundrum" is temporary - Credit Agricole


• January 2017 US leading index 0.6% vs 0.5% exp m/m


• Citi US economic surprise index hits best in three years


• 10 year Treasury yields wilting towards 2.30% could mean trouble for the dollar


• United left could upend the narrative in French election twist


• Goldman Sachs warns on rising US mortgage rates


• The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

In other markets:

• US stock indices close higher/S&P and Nasdaq at record levels. S&P +0.17%. Nasdaq +0.41%.  Dow up +0.02%


• US debt. 2 year down 1 bp. 5 year -3 bp.  10 year -3 bp


• US crude oil $53.37, unchanged on the day


• US spot gold -$3.73 or -0.30%

The US trading session was largely void of data. Yes there was US leading index It rose by 0.6% vs 0.5% est, but I cannot remember the last time that report mattered. 

Baker Hughes weekly rig count increased by 10 - continuing the trend of modest gains.  It seems as long as oil prices remain >$50, that that is good enough for a steady increase in rigs.  It is nothing big, but it is steady. There was no reaction.  

Pres. Trump spoke in SC at the Boeing plant there.   He kept to the script. Talked about jobs and jobs and ended the campaign-esque rally with "God bless Amercia and God bless Boeing". Poor Lockhead. No love. No blessing.  What was clear was that after yesterday"s press conference diabolical, "Teflon Donald" bounced back.  The workers in the airport hangar were raucous, and you could see the bounce in Trump"s step. He raced up the stairs of the new 787 to tour the plane. He may have even put an order in for a new one at the end of his term(s) (just kidding).  

Anyway, since he was 1/2 way to Florida in SC, it was off to Florida after lunch.  You can imagine he is teeing it up about now at Mar-a-lago.  Fore.  He will keep the air hangar theme going with a rally at the Orlando/Melbourne International Airport at 5 PM on Saturday. Still campaigning. Still looking for the love... He is doing it "My Way"....

For the USD today, the dollar rose against all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY.   This was despite declines in yields.  

Where do we stand technically for some of your favorite pairs?

EURUSD:  

The EURUSD was confined to a 39 pip trading range coming into the NA session.  It ended with an respectable 72 pip trading range. The extension was to the downside - closing right around the 100 hour MA at 1.06128 (closed at 1.0611).  For the week, the EURUSD is ending the week down about 25 pips The low stalled at the 61.8% of the move up from the January low (at 1.0526). The high stalled at the 50% of the move down from the February high (at 1.06745. The high reached 1.06788) The pair is a little more bearish, but it is only by a little

USDJPY: 

The USJDPY had an up and down week, with the pair stalling near trend the 115 level on Wednesday. If you recall, there was a big expiration against the 115 level, and damn if the sellers kept the lid on. There was also a failed trend line break near the level. The rest of the week was spent marching lower (see post here). Today, the pair moved down to a support area defined by swing lows and highs on the hourly chart between 112.51 -57. The low today reached 112.61 and the rest of the day was spent below 113.00.  Next week, the 112.51 will be support. A break and we go lower. The 113.00 and then the 113.27 area (where 200 hour MA and 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart are found), will be eyed on rallies. A move above is more bullish. 

GBPUSD: 

The GBPUSD fell sharply in the London session after weak retail sales.  The decline sent the pair below the 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart for the 7th hour bar since Feb 7th.  For the 7th time, the price could not close below that MA line.   The current MA comes in at 1.24037. The GBPUSD is closing just above that level at 1.24037.  Go below on Monday, and traders will be looking for the 8th break to be the charm.  The 50% of the move up from the Jan low comes in at 1.2346. That was the low from Feb 7th. Key level on the downsiide. If the support holds, the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.23717 and 1.24878 respectively become upside targets to get and stay above (that is the start). 

USDCHF:  

What do I see in the USDCHF?  The picture tells the story.  The pair is ending the week above the 100 day MA and the 200 hour MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.0017 area.   The pair is also ending the day below the 100 hour MA at 1.0033. That is not a lot of wiggle room for bullish above/bearish below, but traders will look for clues from those levels as the new week begins.  Keep it Simple to be Successful.

USDCAD: 

The USDCAD moved above the 200 hour MA for the 3rd time in 4 days today. That MA comes in at 1.3101. For the 3rd time the break higher (above the MA) failed.  UGH.  The price action was, nevertheless, congruent with the price action this week. The priced moved lower, higher, lower and higher before the Friday afternoon fall. The range for the week was only about 117 pips with support at 1.3000 (low reached 1.3008). The high today took out the Monday and Wednesday high at 1.3119 on the way to the weeks high at 1.31255. That 7 pip extension was not what you expect. The buyers turned to sellers. For next week, the outer extremes will be eyed at 1.3000/08 and 1.3118/25. In between is the 100 hour MA at 1.3070 and the 200 hour MA at 1.3101.  

AUDUSD: 

The AUDUSD fell in London morning session but stalled near the 200 hour MA at 0.76615 (the price actually traded above and below that MA for most of the NY session). ON the topside in the NY session, the high stalled right against the 100 hour MA at 0.7680.  So in the early trade on Monday, do we go below the 0.7661 level OR above the 0.7681 level?  This pair has been trading up and down since Feb 2nd. The low was at 0.7605 and the high extended above a triple top at 0.7700 area on Wednesday (peaked at 0.7731). Today, the price traded above the 0.7700 one last time before rotating below in the London session and that turned to tide back to the downside.  So on the wide it is 0.7600 below and 0.7700 above.  

That does it for me. Hoping you all have a great weekend. 

Below are the % change of the major currency pairs vs each other for the day

Forexlive Americas forex news wrap. Dollar ends mostly higher in quiet NA trade
Forexlive Americas forex news wrap. Dollar ends mostly higher in quiet NA trade
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