Apple ends losing streak with $78B quarter

We tried Apple"s AirPods

Apple"s losing streak is finally over.

Apple"s (AAPL, Tech30) sales started growing again in the December quarter, driven by stronger demand for the iPhone. It had reported three consecutive year-over-year sales declines.

The company"s sales hit $78.4 billion for the quarter, a new record high. Apple sold 78.3 million iPhones for the quarter, beating its previous record from the same quarter a year earlier of 74.8 million.

Tim Cook, Apple"s CEO, credited the surge in part to "especially strong demand for iPhone 7 Plus," the larger and pricier iPhone model.

The holiday quarter is typically Apple"s biggest as it marks the first full three-month period after the new iPhone goes on sale in September.

The stock jumped nearly 3% in after hours trading Tuesday following the earnings release.

Apple"s annual sales fell in the 2016 fiscal year for the first time since 2001 as iPhone sales, still the majority of its business, declined in three consecutive quarters.

Many analysts have raised concerns that the global smartphone market is saturated. Customers are taking longer to replace their phones. And Apple"s latest iPhone is a dead ringer for the previous two models, eliminating some of the desire to upgrade.

The latest iPhone was thought to get a bump in recent months from the massive recall of Samsung"s Galaxy Note 7 over an exploding battery issue.

Related: Here"s what tech execs are saying about Trump"s immigration ban

Apple"s sales were also boosted by growth in its closely watched Services division, which includes Apple Pay, AppleCare and digital content. The division"s sales topped $7 billion for the quarter, up 18% from the previous year.

However, there were some concerning details in the report. Apple"s iPad revenue fell 22% from a year earlier, continuing a downward spiral for the product. Apple"s sales in Greater China, once thought to be its next big market, also fell 12%.

The earnings report comes at a tense time for the company. Apple now finds itself in the cross hairs as President Trump pushes to overhaul trade agreements, immigration policy and crack down on overseas manufacturing.

During the campaign, Trump said he would "get Apple to build their damn computers and things in this country instead of in other countries."

After winning the election, Trump said he told Cook that it"s his "ambition" to have Apple "build a great plant, your biggest and your best" in the U.S.

Apple was also one of many technology companies to express "deep concerns" this weekend over Trump"s executive order putting a travel ban in place affecting seven Muslim-majority countries.

"Apple would not exist without immigration, let alone thrive and innovate the way we do," Cook said.

On the other hand, Trump has pledged to make it easier for companies like Apple to bring money held overseas back to the U.S. by significantly lowering the taxes on it.

Apple is currently sitting on $246 billion in cash and marketable securities, most of which is held overseas.

"I am optimistic given what I"m hearing that there would likely be some sort of tax reform this year and it does seem like there are people in both parties that would favor a repatriation as part of that," Cook said on a conference call with analysts after the earnings release.

Cook declined to say what the money would be used for if brought back to the U.S., but said Apple is "always looking at acquisitions."

Apple ends losing streak with B quarter
Apple ends losing streak with B quarter
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NZD/USD Breakout or Fake-out? NZ Employment to Offer Cues

Talking Points

• NZDUSD breakout vulnerable to NZ jobs report- Constructive above 7235


• Updated targets & invalidation levels


• Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 Trading Guides. Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays at 13:30GMT (8:30ET)

NZD/USD 240min

Technical Outlook: Last week we discussed the significance of the 7292/93 resistance zone with the long-bias vulnerable while below this region.Kiwi broke above this threshold today in European trade with the rally responding to a key near-term resistance confluence at 7350/52- a region defined by the upper median-line parallel & the 78.6% retracement of decline off the 2016 high.

A close above 7300 is needed to keep the long-bias in focus with our bullish invalidation level set to the highlighted confluence support zone around 7235(weekly opening range low, 23.6% retracement & slope support). A breach higher targets longer-term slope resistance 7380 & 7400. More significant resistance is eyed at the 2016 high-day close at 7450.

Bottom line, heading into tonight’s New Zealand employment report, the broader risk remains weighted to the topside while within this formation, but don’t rule out a test of structural support before heading higher. From a trading standpoint, I would be interested in fading a spike higher into 7400 OR fading weakness into the lower parallels, targeting a new high.

• A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -2.31 (30% of traders are long)- bullish reading


• Long positions are 14.3% lower than yesterday and 10.8% below levels seen last week


• Short positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 20.1% above levels seen last week


• Open interest is 0.8% higher than yesterday and 13.7% above its monthly average


• The current dynamic of increasing short positioning alongside building open interest continues to point higher in Kiwi. Note that SSI hit an extreme of -3.32 in September as the pair topped- Look for a continued build in shorts in the coming days to further validate our near-term directional bias.

Relevant Data Releases

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections

Other Setups in Play:

• Weekly Strategy Webinar: Dollar Crosses Brace for Key Event Risk


• Gold Prices Back Below 1200- Here’s the Game Plan


• EUR/USD Eyes 1.0580 Support Ahead of 4Q GDP


• NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

NZD/USD Breakout or Fake-out? NZ Employment to Offer Cues
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OIL - Private inventory data shows bigger than expected build

Energy Information Administration"s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories is out Wednesday morning (US time)

Ahead of the official data we get this private survey. Data out now.

• Bigger than expected headline "crude" build in stocks


• bigger than expected build in gasoline inventory also

A Reuters poll showed the average expectations was for an increase in inventory of around 3.3 million barrels  

OIL - Private inventory data shows bigger than expected build
OIL - Private inventory data shows bigger than expected build
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New Zealand - Q4 employment data. Unemployment rate for Q4: 5.2% (expected 4.8%)

Jobs report for the October to December quarter 2016 from NZ

Unemployment rate for Q4: 5.2% ... big miss!

• expected 4.8%, prior was 4.9% 

Employment change for Q4 q/q: 0.8% ... small beat!

• expected +0.7%, prior was +1.4%

Employment change for Q4 y/y: 5.8% ... miss!

• expected +6.1%, prior was +6.1%

Participation rate for Q4: 70.5 ... big jump

• expected 70.2%, prior was 70.1%


• All time high participation rate

Average hourly earnings for Q4: -0.3% ... a big miss, perhaps "tightness" in the labour market is all its said to be?

• expected +0.6%, prior was 0.3%

Private wages including overtime for Q4: 0.4% ... another miss

• expected 0.5%, prior was 0.4%

Private wages excluding overtime for Q4: 0.4% ... and another miss

• expected 0.5%, prior was 0.4%

Lots of misses in there. NZD has dropped, down 30 or so point initially ... but developing (as you"d expect!)

Stats NZ is trying to put a brave face on the results ...

• Unemployment rate rises to 5.2 percent as labour force grows

i.e. Yes, they say, unemployment is higher, but so is the participation rate. "A" for effort to Stats NZ but this data is still a bit stinky.

• "The December quarter saw a large number of people enter the labour force," labour and income statistics manager Mark Gordon said. "But while the number of people in employment has risen, so has the number of unemployed people ."This means there were more people available to work, and who had either actively sought work or had a new job to start within the next four weeks.The labour force participation rate increased 0.4 percentage points over the latest quarter, to reach an all-time high of 70.5 percent.

You might expect some issues with this data veractity due to the November earthquake ... on this Stats NZ say "No":

• Note: There is no evidence of any significant effect on the estimates due to the 14 November 2016 earthquake.
  

New Zealand - Q4 employment data. Unemployment rate for Q4: 5.2% (expected 4.8%)
New Zealand - Q4 employment data. Unemployment rate for Q4: 5.2% (expected 4.8%)
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OIL - OPEC's 82% compliance with output cut agreement: "a good number"

The 82% number is from a Reuters survey, for January:

• Supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets under the agreement has averaged 30.01 million bpd


• That"s down from 31.17 million bpd in December

Compared with the levels that the countries agreed to make the reductions from -- in most cases their October output -- OPEC members have cut production by 958,000 bpd of the pledged 1.164 million bpd, equating to 82 percent compliance

More at Reuters here

-

You may have noticed I am a bit biased on this ... these sorts of agreement usually break down,

They end in tears. ;-D

So ... give it time

-

ps. dunno if this got a run on FXL overnight (I only did a cursory search), so if it did ... apols for the repeat!

OIL - OPEC"s 82% compliance with output cut agreement: "a good number"
OIL - OPEC"s 82% compliance with output cut agreement: "a good number"
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Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 1 February 2017

Hellooooo February!

And good morning/afternoon/evening all!

• Charts,


• technical analysis,


• trade ideas,


• thoughts,


• views,

If you"d like to share any or all, and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:        

Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 1 February 2017
Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 1 February 2017
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Australia - manufacturing PMI (January): 51.2 (prior 55.4)

Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing Index, a big drop on the month to 51.2

• prior 55.4

            more to come

 

Australia - manufacturing PMI (January): 51.2 (prior 55.4)
Australia - manufacturing PMI (January): 51.2 (prior 55.4)
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Ikea to sell rugs made by Syrian refugees

5 stunning stats about IKEA

Ikea plans to roll out a new range of rugs and textiles made by Syrian refugees in 2019.

The initiative is expected to create jobs for about 200 Syrian refugees living in Jordan, most of them women.

"The situation in Syria is a major tragedy of our time, and Jordan has taken a great responsibility in hosting Syrian refugees... We decided to look into how Ikea can contribute," said Jesper Brodin, a managing director at Ikea.

Ikea said it"s in the process of working with local organizations that focus on womens" issues to get the project up and running.

Jordan has accepted just over 655,000 Syrian refugees, according to the United Nations.

Recent data from the UN shows about 37,000 work permits have been issued in Jordan for Syrian refugees, though many Syrians work without permits. There"s a very low rate of employment among women, who are traditionally tasked with taking care of children.

Ikea said it would work with local organizations to ensure the hours were flexible for women who were caring for family members.

The rugs and textiles will be sold locally and in other Middle Eastern markets that have free trade agreements with Jordan. The Swedish furniture giant said the products will be part of a limited edition run.

Related: Companies speak out against Trump"s travel ban

Ikea"s work on the project predates President Trump"s decision to ban travelers from seven Muslim-majority countries, including Syria, for a period of at least 90 days. Trump has also capped the total number of refugees that can be admitted to the U.S. at 50,000 in the 2017 fiscal year, and banned Syrian refugees indefinitely.

Ikea responded Tuesday to Trump"s decision.

"We support the fundamental rights of all people, and do not accept any form of discrimination," it said in a statement.

Ikea"s top country manager in the U.S. -- Lars Petersson -- also spoke out following Trump"s executive order, saying any Ikea employees who were impacted could get free legal advice and mental health counseling.

"Any proposal that would discriminate against a certain group of our customers or co-workers, or limit our ability to attract and retain diverse talent is ... troubling," he said.

Ikea has undertaken a range of initiatives to help refugees and was recently given a top design award for its flat-pack refugee shelter.

The shelter -- developed by Ikea and the UN — won the 2016 Beazley Design of the Year award from the Design Museum in London.

The company has also donated €30.8 million ($33.3 million) for lighting and renewable energy projects in refugee camps in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

Ikea will be rolling out new rugs in 2019 made by Syrian refugees in Jordan.

Ikea, which was founded in Sweden, has 340 stores in 28 countries and employs nearly 164,000 people. It boasted sales above €34 billion ($36.9 billion) last year.

Ikea to sell rugs made by Syrian refugees
Ikea to sell rugs made by Syrian refugees
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Crude Oil Price Forecast: Stability Appears Bullish

Access Free Oil Trading Guide from DailyFX Analysts HERE!

Talking Points:

• Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Price stability above support (50/52) favors upside


• COT-Crude Oil Record Spec AND Hedger Positions


• Resistance set at $54.29/bbl, evening start top

The price of Crude Oil appears at odd with the sentiment, which we recently reported via the CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that speculators are loading into long positions at a record clip. However, the record spread between commercial hedgers and speculative investors has hit extreme levels, but the price has failed to breakout.

The first chart is taken from the article, COT-Crude Oil Record Spec AND Hedger Positions by Jamie Saettele, CMT. The price of Crude Oil current month futures contract, CL1, with net positioning per the COT shown below the price.

The worrisome observation from the chart is that the last time we saw such extremes in positioning was the summer of 2014 when Crude Oil would last trade above $110/bbl before diving to a low of $26/bbl in February 2016. Sentiment and positioning analysis is helpful, but not predictive, but it is worth noting that a breakdown that takes the price below the key level we will soon discuss could be indicative of a larger, albeit smaller breakdown in Crude Oil price like developed in H2 2014-Q1 2016.

Image Source: COT-Crude Oil Record Spec AND Hedger Positions by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

There has been an impressive amount of compliance by OPEC, but the stability in price in the lower half of $50/bbl appears to show this was fully priced in. It’s difficult to say what could kick off the next Bull trend or the next Bear breakdown, but many are watching the USD for clues ahead of the FOMC for the possible next big move in Crude. However, it’s worth noting the Crude Oil and the US Dollar has recently moved to a positive correlation relationship.

The positive correlation has been blamed on the strong bullish positions that hedge funds have in both USD & USOIL (see chart above.)

When looking at the chart below, you can see a highlighted zone that focuses on a level that was resistance that now appears to be supported. The price also looks to be trading higher within a Bullish Pitchfork drawn off the early August closing low and the October and November price extremes. The Daily Ichimoku cloud is also added to the chart and aligns with the lower quarter of the Pitchfork. The two zones of support should prevent traders from getting Bearish if price holds above these levels in anticipation of a downtrend beginning.

From a momentum perspective, you can see that there was a strong move down in Oil at the start of the year that took RSI(5) down to the oversold region. However, the price did not break below the Polarity Zone on the chart, which could be indicative that the next big move is higher rather than lower despite the positioning spread explained above.

Naturally, a break below the Ichimoku Cloud and Andrew’s Pitchfork lower bound would align with a breakdown below the polarity zone that has my focus. Until we can check off all three events as completed, I will await the sideways action in Crude Oil in anticipation of an eventual breakout that will be validated on a break above $54.29.

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D1 Crude Oil Price Chart: Crude Oil Volatility Is Subdued, Price Above Support Favors Upside Bias

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT Courtesy of TradingView

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading as of Tuesday, January 31, 2017

T.Y.

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Crude Oil Price Forecast: Stability Appears Bullish
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Humans lick wounds after losing to AI in poker

College students race pods in Hyperloop Competition

After 20 grueling days, the humans had to admit it.

The best poker player at Rivers Casino in Pittsburgh wasn"t a human, but a machine.

"Libratus," a computer program created by a Carnegie Mellon professor and student, dominated four professional poker players this month, accumulating a $1,766,250 lead in chips.

"Halfway through the challenge we thought we were going to win," said Daniel McAulay. "But we really got beat down."

Less than two years ago, Carnegie Mellon staged a similar poker showdown between four professionals and an AI program. The humans won, earning $732,713 more in chips. Two of those competitors, Dong Kim and Jason Les, returned for this year"s tournament.

Carnegie Mellon PhD student Noam Brown looks on as the poker professionals play his AI system at poker.

The computer"s decisive victory this time is a reminder of the rapid advances in artificial intelligence. A year ago, we saw another artificial intelligence milestone as a Google (GOOGL, Tech30) computer program beat one of the world"s best players at the ancient Chinese game Go.

"This has probably been the most challenging experience in my life," said Jimmy Chou, who finished second among the humans. (Kim finished first.)

Related: Obama warns of the danger of AI wiping out jobs

Each of the four humans played one-on-one against the computer system. A total of 120,000 hands of heads-up no-limit Texas hold-em were played.

"If anyone had any doubt about the quality of our technology, I can tell you we tried everything we could," Les said. "It became very demoralizing showing up and losing this hard."

The good news for the pro players is that they won"t have to pay up the $1.7 million in chips. Instead, they"ll split $200,000 as a thank you for battling the machine.

Related: Using artificial intelligence to solve the world"s problems

The margin of victory even surprised the researchers who developed Libratus.

Carnegie Mellon professor Tuomas Sandholm is shown with the supercomputer that powered his AI system.

"I thought we had a decent chance of winning, but definitely not a shoo-in," said Carnegie Mellon professor Tuomas Sandholm. He developed Libratus along with PhD student Noam Brown.

Sandholm credited Libratus" improved algorithms, which could better predict how to bet, when to fold, and whether bluffing made sense.

He believes the algorithms could be a game-changer for any game where a player has incomplete information, such as negotiations or auctions. Sandholm said he will probably commercialize the technology.

He sees the technology as a way to improve the world by leveling the playing field, provided that everyone at the negotiation table has access to his technology.

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BlackRock U.S. ETF business tops $1 trillion in assets for first time

The BlackRock logo is seen outside of its offices in New York City, U.S., October 17, 2016.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

BlackRock U.S. ETF business tops trillion in assets for first time
BlackRock U.S. ETF business tops trillion in assets for first time
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As Trump thunders, investors watch for rain

Traders work on the main trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly after the opening bell of the trading session in New York January 15, 2016.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

As Trump thunders, investors watch for rain
As Trump thunders, investors watch for rain
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S&P 500 su tf mensile - candlestick pattern

BEARISH DELIBERATION BLOCK

La figura si forma quando il mercato è guidato da un trend rialzista ed è composto da tre candele bianche consecutive, ciascuna con chiusura superiore rispetto alla precedente.

Criteri di riconoscimento:

1. Il trend del mercato è rialzista.

2. Il primo giorno si osserva una candela bianca.

3. Il secondo giorno si ha una candela bianca con l’apertura compresa nella gamma del corpo precedente e chiusura al di sopra di quella precedente.

4. L’ultimo giorno si osserva una corta candela bianca, una trottola o una Doji.

Livelli di Conferma/Stop loss

Il livello di conferma è definito come il punto medio tra l’ultimo prezzo di chiusura e il livello superiore del corpo della seconda giornata.

Per la conferma della formazione è necessaria una deviazione verso giù dei prezzi .

S&P 500 su tf mensile - candlestick pattern
S&P 500 su tf mensile - candlestick pattern
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U.S. funds recommend cutting equity allocations in January

By Krishna Eluri

U.S. funds recommended trimming equity allocations in January as they wait for President Donald Trump to announce the infrastructure spending and tax cuts he promised during his election campaign.

Following Trump"s shock victory in the race for the White House in November, U.S. stock markets have hit record highs on expectations he would cut taxes and regulation.

But major U.S. stock indexes posted their largest daily drop this year on Monday as a curb on immigration ordered by Trump reminded investors that some of the U.S. president"s promised policies are not market-friendly.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI closed 0.6 percent lower on Monday, its largest one-day percentage drop since October.

Recommended equity allocations were cut to a three-month low of 52.2 percent from 52.7 percent in December, the survey of 13 fund managers conducted from Jan. 17 to 30 showed.

Funds left allocations to bonds and property largely unchanged, while a search for yield led to a slight increase in alternative investments such as hedge funds and commodities.

Recommended cash allocations were cut to 3.9 percent from 4.3 percent in December.

Funds increased bets in favor of high-yield securities at the expense of government and investment-grade bonds.

"The "animal spirits" dynamic coming out of the Trump victory continues to be flagged as a big tailwind for equities," wrote Alan Gayle, director of asset allocation at RidgeWorth Investments.

"But while confidence can be a powerful tailwind, it ultimately must be validated by results. The early focus on ACA could delay potential positives from tax reform and infrastructure spending."

Since taking office, the president"s focus has been on immigration and weakening the Affordable Care Act, the health insurance program also known as Obamacare.

Markets have priced in only a 4 percent chance the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates this week, its first meeting since Trump took office on Jan. 20. All 106 economists in a Reuters poll were unanimous in not expecting any hike. (reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=USFOMC%3DECI)

"We believe that Federal Reserve monetary policy will err on the side of accommodation while potentially supportive fiscal and regulatory proposals are discussed and possibly implemented by the new Congress and Administration," Gayle said.

(Polling by Sarmista Sen and Purnita Deb; Editing by Catherine Evans)

U.S. funds recommend cutting equity allocations in January
U.S. funds recommend cutting equity allocations in January
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In nod to index funds, 'Agg' bond benchmark changing rules

By Trevor Hunnicutt
| NEW YORK

One of the most widely tracked market indexes is raising its admission standards, potentially offering relief to index-fund managers and pressuring bonds that failed to make the cut.

Starting April 1, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index will hold most kinds of debt only if at least $300 million of the bond remains on the market, up from $250 million.

The rule change pushes $304 billion in bonds out of the index, nearly 2 percent of its value, while allowing funds to sidestep the process of buying or trying to match the performance of bonds in short supply, analysts said.

"It has to be easier for a portfolio manager to track this index if the smaller, less liquid names were removed," said Elisabeth Kashner, director of exchange-traded fund research at FactSet Research Systems Inc, adding that many portfolio managers "struggle to fully replicate their indexes."

The performance of at least hundreds of billions of investments are judged against the "Agg." Nearly $80 billion in ETFs track the index directly, according to Morningstar Inc, with investors increasingly buying relatively cheap funds that strive to mimic benchmarks, not beat the market.

The largest such funds include the $42 billion iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF and the $32 billion Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF. Though both funds track Agg, neither must match the index"s holdings exactly.

Josh Barrickman, Vanguard Group"s Americas head of fixed-income indexing, said the asset manager may hold the smaller sets of bonds even as they leave the index "if we think they have value."

Karen Schenone, a fixed-income strategist at iShares, said she anticipates "minimal" activity as a result of the change.

The bonds set to be removed, including debt in the utilities, real-estate, energy and healthcare sectors, are selling off already, Bank of America Corp said in a research note.

Some investors avoid the U.S.-dollar, investment-grade index because of its extensive Treasury and mortgage-related holdings, which are especially likely to hemorrhage if interest rates move higher. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers have telegraphed that they plan to hike rates three times this year.

In an additional nod to index funds, Agg owner Bloomberg L.P. will provide an additional closing price for the index at 4 p.m. ET, when many funds calculate their value.

The difference in bond prices between the index"s 3 p.m. close and 4 p.m. means that index funds often report significantly different performance than their benchmark over short periods.

(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Paul Simao)

In nod to index funds, "Agg" bond benchmark changing rules
In nod to index funds, "Agg" bond benchmark changing rules
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Warren Buffett: I bought $12 billion of stock after Trump won

By Jonathan Stempel

The failure of Warren Buffett"s favored candidate to capture the White House has not dimmed the billionaire"s appetite for stocks.

Buffett revealed that he has bought $12 billion of stock for his company Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) since the Republican Donald Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton in the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election.

In an interview with talk show host Charlie Rose that aired on Friday night, Buffett suggested that Berkshire"s post-election stock purchases overall were even higher, reflecting stocks that his deputies Todd Combs and Ted Weschler bought.

"We"ve, net, bought $12 billion of common stocks since the election," Buffett said. "The guys that work with me, the two fellows, they probably bought a little bit or sold a little bit too."

The speed with which Berkshire is buying stocks is unusual. It has spent in fewer than three months roughly half what it spent on equities in the three years ending Sept. 30, 2016.

Buffett demurred on whether Berkshire has added to its stakes in the four largest U.S. airlines: American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N), Southwest Airlines Co (LUV.N) and United Continental Holdings Inc (UAL.N).

Berkshire revealed those stakes in mid-November, surprising many given Buffett"s long aversion to the sector.

Asked why Berkshire dove in, Buffett said: "It was in large part my decision."

Berkshire will likely by Feb. 14 disclose some of the stocks it has bought, in a regulatory filing listing most of its U.S. holdings as of year end.

The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate owned $102.5 billion of equities as of Sept. 30, excluding its stake in Kraft Heinz Co (KHC.O).

U.S. stocks rose after Trump was elected, reflecting investor optimism that his policies might boost economic growth, aided by a Congress also under Republican control.

Buffett said Trump is unlikely to reach his goal of 4 percent annual growth, but that growth at half that level would over a generation add $19,000 per person to real gross domestic product.

"Two percent will produce miracles," Buffett said.

The U.S. economy grew by 1.6 percent last year, the lowest since 2011.

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; Editing by Jennifer Ablan, Bernard Orr)

Warren Buffett: I bought billion of stock after Trump won
Warren Buffett: I bought billion of stock after Trump won
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U.S. trade group calls for fund to back mortgage bonds

Creation of a fund that provides a government guarantee on mortgage-backed securities would help promote competition in the U.S. housing finance market, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Tuesday.

Such a fund offering an explicit federal guarantee would ensure the timely payment of principal and interest in the event one or more of the private insurers that would compete with mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fails, the Washington-based trade group said.

"The U.S. mortgage market requires global capital in order to maintain adequate liquidity through all economic cycles. International and institutional investors will only fill that role if there is an explicit government guarantee on the securities, something that can only be obtained by congressional action," MBA Chairman Rodrigo Lopez said in a statement.

The private mortgage guarantors proposed by MBA would be organized like utilities with a regulated rate of return. They would be chartered to buy qualified single-family and apartment loans and issue bonds backed by these mortgages with a government guarantee, MBA said.

Fannie and Freddie charge mortgage lenders a fee to guarantee the loans they make to home buyers.

The proposal for the fund for MBS was part of MBA"s white paper on its recommendations for mortgage finance market reform with the goal of ending the government"s conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie.

The two mortgage agencies, since they were rescued in 2008, have operated under the conservatorship but are now profitable again and have returned more than $240 billion to federal government coffers.

(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli)

U.S. trade group calls for fund to back mortgage bonds
U.S. trade group calls for fund to back mortgage bonds
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Gold becomes one of investors' favorite safe haven with Trump uncertainty

24 karat gold bars are seen at the United States West Point Mint facility in West Point, New York June 5, 2013.

REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo

Gold becomes one of investors" favorite safe haven with Trump uncertainty
Gold becomes one of investors" favorite safe haven with Trump uncertainty
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Merkel rejects Trump adviser's trade accusation

Trump adviser: Presidential team will include women

An adviser to President Trump accused Germany of using a "grossly undervalued" euro to hurt the U.S. economy -- and promptly drew the ire of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

"Germany is a country that has always called for the European Central Bank to pursue an independent policy, just as the Bundesbank did before the euro existed," Merkel said Tuesday in response to Trump adviser Peter Navarro.

Merkel rejects Trump adviser"s trade accusation
Merkel rejects Trump adviser"s trade accusation
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February seasonals: Commodity currency climb

The start of something good for AUD, NZD and CAD

February is the time to start thinking about buying the Australian, New Zealand or Canadian dollar. It"s the third-best month since 2000 for the Australian dollar but also the start of a strong period that includes March and April.

In the past 10 Februarys, AUD/USD has only declined once, in 2013.

It"s a similar story for the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar follows a similar trend, although it"s less pronounced.

What"s notable is that NZD/USD appears to be breaking out today. The pair is trading at the best level since November. USD/CAD is also testing a major bottom near 1.30 and AUD/USD is threatening to break out.

With the seasonal trend extending for the next three months in these pairs, there is no rush to get into this trade.

[embedded content]

February seasonals: Commodity currency climb
February seasonals: Commodity currency climb
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ExxonMobil profit falls 40%

5 stunning stats about Exxon

Depressed oil prices are keeping the heat on Exxon at a time when the oil behemoth"s longtime CEO Rex Tillerson has left to join the Trump administration.

ExxonMobil (XOM), the world"s largest public oil company, revealed on Tuesday a 40% decline in fourth-quarter profits.

ExxonMobil profit falls 40%
ExxonMobil profit falls 40%
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Dollar breaking down as the words of Trump weighs

We"ve got some breaks going on folks

USDJPY has slid through 113.00 and hit stops down to 112.64. EURUSD is looking to clear this 1.0770 area and has hit 1.0780.

GBPUSD is above earlier intraday resistance at 1.2520 by 18 pips. We"re not breaking records but some of the moves could turn out to be significant. Watch the Euro in a run at 1.0800.

EURUSD daily chart

Dollar breaking down as the words of Trump weighs
Dollar breaking down as the words of Trump weighs
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A red start for US stocks

US stock market open 31 January 2017

• 
  
  S&P -5pts to 2275
  
  
  


• 
  
  Dow -62 to 19908
  
  
  


• 
  
  Nasdaq -17 to 5596
  
  
  

US 10 year yields 2.47bp -1bp

A red start for US stocks
A red start for US stocks
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Italy December PPI mm +0.6% vs -0.2% prev

Italy December PPI report now out 31 Jan

• yy 0.9% vs -0.3% prev

And the stronger Eurozone inflation vibes just keep on coming helping to lift EURGBP to 0.8636 adding to the month-end demand we"ve been banging on about. GBPUSD driven ever-lower to 1.2411.

Currently finding some money coming off the table at 0.8613 and 1.2435

I hope you"ve managed to get on board for some of the journey at least.

Italy December PPI mm +0.6% vs -0.2% prev
Italy December PPI mm +0.6% vs -0.2% prev
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The Eurozone needs more ECB QE

The data stinks so the ECB needs to pump more

• 
  
  GDP 1.7% for 2016
  
  


• 
  
  CPI 1.8% vs 0.4% Jan 2016
  
  


• 
  
  Unemployment 9.6% vs 10.4% Jan 2016
  
  

Ok, growth was down from 2015 but still, 1.7% isn"t that bad when you compare it to the other major economies.

If this was the US markets would be going taper potty, yet we"re all supposed to forget about it and carry on as if nothing"s happened.

The whole point of QE was to produce results like this. As I"ve said previously, the only reason the ECB are dumbing this down is to keep the euro in check. The problem they have is that the inflation genie is out of the bottle, and if it becomes entrenched (keep an eye on the core), they haven"t got a hope in hell of getting it back in. Everyone else might be happy to ignore it but I"m not and will remain long EURUSD for the long haul.

The Eurozone needs more ECB QE
The Eurozone needs more ECB QE
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Deutsche Bank fined for $10 billion scheme

Biggest corporate fails of 2016 in 60 seconds

The big fines keep coming for Deutsche Bank.

The giant German lender has now been hit with a $425 million penalty in the U.S. over a $10 billion Russian money-laundering scheme that involved its Moscow, New York and London branches.

Deutsche Bank fined for billion scheme
Deutsche Bank fined for billion scheme
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Canada's Wealthsimple takes on crowded U.S. robo-adviser market

By Solarina Ho
| TORONTO

Wealthsimple, a Canadian-based robo-adviser startup, announced a C$20 million ($15.25 million) investment from Power Financial Corp, and formally launched in the United States on Tuesday, as it looks to compete in a crowded American market dominated by big investment firms.

Wealthsimple"s national roll-out will make the Toronto-based firm the first foreign robo-adviser startup to enter that market, according to an industry analyst.

Robo-advisers give automated financial advice or portfolio management using technology, and do not use a human financial planner. Their online service is touted as a low-cost, convenient alternative to traditional outfits.

But increasing competition from large, established firms like Charles Schwab and Vanguard have raised questions about the ability of startups to gain enough traction to become profitable.

Founder and chief executive Mike Katchen said it was too soon to set U.S. targets and declined to specify what amount of assets under management the company would need to become profitable.

"People are absolutely right ... This business is absolutely about scale," he said in an interview.

Katchen said Power Financial"s long-term backing gives it an edge. Power and its subsidiaries have put in a total of C$50 million in Wealthsimple since first investing in 2015.

"When Vanguard or Schwab launch a product, that"s not a question people have," said Katchen, who is 29.Wealthsimple said 20,000 customers in Canada have signed up since its launch a little over two years ago, investing more than C$750 million in exchange traded funds. It expects to cross the C$1 billion threshold soon.

Wealthsimple, which caters to young and first-time investors, is charging a 0.5 percent fee for investments up to $100,000. Above that, the fee is 0.4 percent. There is no account minimum, and the first $5,000 is free.

"The U.S. is such a competitive market and Wealthsimple will have to drop fees in order to get any play," William Trout, a senior analyst with research firm Celent and robo-advisory expert, said in an email, noting that existing U.S. competitors charge lower fees.

Wealthsimple"s website also lists a London office "opening in 2017," which a spokeswoman said was still "exploratory." Trout said the UK environment is also crowded.

Wealthsimple, which offers a socially responsible investment option, said real advisers can also provide financial planning advice to clients.

It also has a platform for financial advisers in Canada, but said it has no immediate plans to launch the service in the United States.

(Editing by Matthew Lewis)

Canada"s Wealthsimple takes on crowded U.S. robo-adviser market
Canada"s Wealthsimple takes on crowded U.S. robo-adviser market
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December 2016 UK mortgage approvals 67,898 vs 69,000 exp

Details from the December 2016 UK mortgage approvals, BOE consumer credit & M4 money supply data report 31 January 2017

• 
  
  Prior 67,505. Revised to 67,461
  
  


• 
  
  Net mortgage lending 3.798bn vs 3.300bn exp. Prior 3.175bn. Revised to 3.141bn
  
  


• 
  
  BOE consumer credit 1.039bn vs 1.7000bn exp. Prior 1.1926b. Revised to 1.929bn
  
  


• 
  
  M4 money supply -0.5% vs 0.4% prior
  
  

Net mortgage lending was higher but consumer credit fell. There"s probably some seasonality in there as we saw a strong consumer on Oct & Nov, which waned in Dec, if we just take retail sales as a yard stick. That train of thought is somewhat backed up by the amount of that credit that was put on credit cards. 228m was used vs 544m in Nov. 

In business lending, SME lending fell 302m from 83m in Nov.

One other item of note was that foreign investors net sold gilts for the first time since July, just after the Brexit vote. 2.970bn was sold vs buying of 15.577bn in Nov. Something to watch going forward. The question is where did they put the proceeds? Did it stay in the UK via an asset switch, or leave the country for pastures new?

 

December 2016 UK mortgage approvals 67,898 vs 69,000 exp
December 2016 UK mortgage approvals 67,898 vs 69,000 exp
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Germany December retail sales mm -0.9% vs +0.6% exp

Germany December retail sales report 31 Jan

• -1.7% prev revised down from -1.8%


• yy -1.1% vs +0.5% vs +3.5% prev revised up from +3.2%

Forecasters getting it wrong but slight improvement mm vs weaker yy.

Not going to change much right now but not welcome news either.

EURUSD on session lows at 1.0690 in general USD demand. EURGBP still underpinned around 0.8554

Germany December retail sales mm -0.9% vs +0.6% exp
Germany December retail sales mm -0.9% vs +0.6% exp
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Yen Aims to Extend Gains, Pound Drops Before Super Thursday

Talking Points:

• Japanese Yen soars as sentiment sours across financial markets


• British Pound down as markets bet on dovish “Super Thursday”


• Euro may not find lasting support as German CPI hits 2 percent

The Japanese Yen outperformed as market sentiment soured in Asian trade, offering support to the standby anti-risk currency. More of the same looks to be brewing ahead. European shares are firmly in the red as markets in the region come online and S&P 500 futures are pointing decidedly lower, hinting that the going will not get any easier after the opening bell on Wall Street.

The preliminary set of German CPI figures is expected to show headline on-year inflation rose to 2 percent this month, slightly exceeding the ECB’s target. The recovery in pricing power has mirrored that of crude oil since early 2016 but priced-in inflation expectations are stuck in familiar ranges, hinting the central bank is unlikely to change its dovish posture. This may mean the data will not offer the Euro much of a lift.

The British Pound is facing broad-based selling pressure in a move that may reflect pre-positioning ahead the so-called “Super Thursday” later in the week. The Bank of England will publish an updated quarterly inflation report and Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference to explain its contents. The minutes and outcome of its latest policy meeting are also due.

Traders may be scaling back exposure to the UK unit amid speculation that the central bank will maintain a dovish bias despite recently rosy growth and inflation data, citing lingering Brexit-related worries. BOE officials have struck a cautious tone despite the economy’s apparent resilience since the Leave campaign triumphed in last year’s EU membership referendum.

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Asia Session

European Session

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

Yen Aims to Extend Gains, Pound Drops Before Super Thursday
Yen Aims to Extend Gains, Pound Drops Before Super Thursday
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What is ExxonMobil doing in Iraq?

Rex Tillerson in 90 seconds

ExxonMobil may have a problem in Iraq.

The country is one of seven covered by President Trump"s travel ban. And the company is the only American firm still operating under an oil license granted by the Iraqi government.

What is ExxonMobil doing in Iraq?
What is ExxonMobil doing in Iraq?
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Lego's new network to keep bullies out

Teaching kids to code with Legos

Lego"s new social network for kids lays the building blocks to prevent bullying.

The company launched on Tuesday a free iOS and Android app called Lego Life. The social platform children under the age of 13 share photos of their Lego creations, watch animated videos and participate in building challenges.

"One of its core purposes is to put their iPhone down and go do something else," Rob Lowe, senior director at the Lego Group, told CNNTech.

Although various social networks such as Twitter have long struggled with online bullying, Lego wants to take a proactive prevention approach. For example, the company is baking anti-harassment tools into the platform itself.

When a child signs up for the service, the app automatically suggests a user name -- no real-life names allowed. However, users can make Lego avatars with personalized characteristics, such as different gender, hair and outfit options.

Only photos with Lego-related content can be shared online and can"t include people. Comments have limitations, too: Kids are only allowed to comment on other users" photos with Lego emoji. (But they can comment with words on official Lego posts.)

Parents must also confirm their kids" accounts via email, and Lego Life moderators approve each post.

These features are a part of a company"s effort to cut down on the bullying and harassment that often occurs in comment sections. Lego has met with groups such as UNICEF to make sure the app adheres to child safety regulations and best practices to keep kids safe online.

Related: Lego"s new kit teaches kids to code

But the app isn"t too restrictive when it comes to exploring content. Similarto Instagram, kids can follow other accounts and search for topics such as Star Wars or super heroes. They can also "like" pictures by tapping a heart.

Lowe said the company will closely monitor how members use the liking capabilities, and if kids start to focus more on that -- think: popularity contest -- than the Lego builds, it will change its methods.

While privacy policies prevent kids under the age of 13 from signing up for Facebook, Twitter or YouTube accounts, the demographic can still view the public discourse of hate speech on these platforms.

"If you go into the comments section on YouTube, it"s not a nice place for kids to hang out," Lowe said. "We wanted to make it the opposite of the comments section on YouTube."

The app is mobile-only for now, but Lego plans to roll out its social network to the web soon.

Lego"s new network to keep bullies out
Lego"s new network to keep bullies out
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Trump fires acting AG for not defending ban

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Trump fires acting AG for not defending ban
Trump fires acting AG for not defending ban
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Crude Oil Prices Drop as Market-Wide Sentiment Sours

Talking Points:

• Crude oil prices weighed down by risk trends as sentiment sours


• Head and Shoulders pattern continues to hint that WTI is topping


• Gold prices bounce from 2-week low, have scope to extend gains

Crude oil prices fell alongside shares and the US Dollar on Friday while gold prices edged up, rebounding from a two-week low. The news-wires chalked up the move to a disappointing US GDP report that showed the annualized growth rate slipped to 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. This undershot forecasts calling for a print at 2.2 percent and marked a significant slowdown from the 3.5 percent recorded in the three months through September.

In fact, the move started well before the data crossed the wires, although it does seem to have amplified momentum. The typically cycle-sensitive WTI and Brent crude oil benchmarks followed European stocks downward and US Treasury bonds – the standby safe haven asset market-wide – dutifully advanced, pressuring yields lower. That this did not prove to be supportive for the greenback, another go-to beneficiary of risk aversion, may hint that traders see eroding sentiment as roadblock for Fed rate hikes.

The risk-off dynamic carried over into Asian trade as the new week began. S&P 500 index futures are pointing decidedly lower as Europe comes online, pointing to more of the same ahead. On the data front, the Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge takes top billing, with an uptick to 1.7 percent expected. While that might have been supportive for rate hike bets under normal circumstances, lingering uncertainty about on-coming fiscal policy may leave investors unconvinced.

Are retail traders buying or selling gold, and what does that hint about the trend? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices found interim support below the $1200/oz figure after turning downward as expected. From here, a daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1183.28 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% level at 1160.57. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 1200.00 threshold sees the next upside barrier at 1219.20, the 38.2% Fib retracement.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices continue to build the outlines of a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) chart pattern.A break below near-term support at 52.44 exposes the 50.25-69 area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, January 10 low), with a subsequent close below that confirming the topping setup. Alternatively, a move above the 23.6% Fib expansionat 53.75 targets the 55.21-65 region (January 3 high, 38.2% expansion).

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Crude Oil Prices Drop as Market-Wide Sentiment Sours
Crude Oil Prices Drop as Market-Wide Sentiment Sours
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FX Markets Set for Volatility Bump with BOJ, FOMC, BOE, and US NFPs

Talking Points:

- Central banks in focus as policy shifts from BOJ, BOE, and FOMC could all be on the horizon.

- Recent US economic data has been lagging, but a strong jobs report Friday could override near-term weakness.

- Among central bank meetings, BOE’s “Super Thursday” may prove the most provocative.

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

01/31 Tuesday | --:-- GMT | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan meets on Tuesday against a backdrop of shifting policy expectations. Despite pledging to purchase ¥80 trillion of assets per years, the recent slowdown in short-term purchases means that the BOJ is falling behind this pace. To some, to this may conjure up concerns that, given the backdrop of a weaker Japanese Yen over the past three months, that the BOJ is tempted to step away from its more aggressive easing measures. However, given the uncertainty around US fiscal policy and rising geopolitical tensions, a premature tapering announcement would upend markets – there is a small but meaningful chance of this occurring.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, USD/JPY

01/31Tuesday | 09:00 GMT | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (JAN A)

Euro-zone inflation is set to jump again in January, as higher energy prices continue to feed through, presenting ECB President Mario Draghi with a problem. While Draghi will be happy to see inflation returning to the euro-zone, higher import Prices could dampen domestic demand, just at a time when the EU is starting to see growth return. President Draghi will also have to get used to the sound of German officials suggesting that the central bank reign in its bond-buying program. The ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy is starting to hurt German savers with the current level of inflation of 1.7%, biting into bond returns. The German yield curve is negative out to 7-years, while the 10-year Bund offers around 0.48%, still sharply lower than CPI. Analysts expect euro-zone inflation to jump to 1.7% in January from 1.1% in December.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD

02/01 Wednesday | 18:00 GMT | USD Federal Reserve Rate Decision

It’s a non-press conference, non-staff projections meeting, so the scope for action by the Federal Reserve is limited. Regardless, interest rate markets aren’t pricing in any Fed action until June 2017 at the earliest, where there is in excess of a 70% chance of a rate hike per Fed funds futures. Ultimately, given the risks surrounding Fed policy - implicitly due to the lack of clarity over the scope of changes to fiscal policy – it seems that this FOMC rate decision’s policy statement will carry additional weight.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

02/02 Thursday | 12:00 GMT | GBP Bank of England Rate Decision – “Super Thursday”

Super Thursday will see Bank of England latest monetary policy announcement and the MPC Quarterly Inflation Report. All UK policy measures are expected to remain unchanged, while the QIR is expected to see governor Carney upwardly revise his near-term growth and inflation forecasts. Thursday’s first look at fourth-quarter GDP surprised on the upside, 0.6% against analysts’ expectations of 0.5%, confirming the UK as the fastest growing economy in the G7 in 2016. Governor Carney is also expected to warn about his limited tolerance to inflation overshoots, although the recent appreciation of sterling from its post-Brexit lows, may leave Carney with a little more flexibility than last quarters report.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD

02/03 Friday | 13:30 GMT | USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JAN)

The key issue surrounding the January US Nonfarm Payrolls report is whether or not the US labor market will give one further indication that it is strong enough to justify a more aggressive pace of Fed tightening. Current expectations for the data are modest, with the Unemployment Rate expected to hold at 4.7%, and the headline jobs figure to come in at +168K.

The trend of +200K jobs growth per month has recently been a psychological level for markets, but Fed leaders and centrists (the Goldilocks of the Fed; not too hawkish or too dovish) tend have another number in mind. In October 2015, San Fran Fed President John Williams wrote in a research note that he believed growth of +100K jobs per month was enough to sustain the growth in the labor force and maintain the current unemployment rate. In December 2015, Chair Janet Yellen reiterated this same view. By the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, assuming a 4.8% longer term unemployment rate, the economy only needs +122k job growth per month to sustain that level.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Read more: Euro Due for More Chop as Inflation Data Point Higher; Draghi on Thursday

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist, Nick Cawley, Analyst

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FX Markets Set for Volatility Bump with BOJ, FOMC, BOE, and US NFPs
FX Markets Set for Volatility Bump with BOJ, FOMC, BOE, and US NFPs
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