Forexlive Americas forex new wrap. Dollar mixed on quarter end day

Forex news for trading on March 31, 2017

• US stocks end the day lower. The quarter was a different story.


• CFTC Commitment of Traders: GBP shorts remain near record levels. EUR near square.


• Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD stalls at 100 hour MA


• Forex technical analysis: USDJPY wanders back toward the 100 and 200 hour MA


• US Baker Hughes rig count total up to 824 from 809. Up 15.


• More Bullard: On balance sheet, Fed could be ready to go by 2H 2017


• JPM Q1 GDP tracker to 1% from 1.5% - Livesquawk


• BOC Poloz: Canada GDP was good, but...


• NY Fed Nowcasting 1Q GDP dips to 2.9% from 3.0% last week


• Senate intelligence committee turned down Flynn"s request for immunity


• Fed doves favor shrinking of balance sheet...


• Goldman cuts 1Q GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.8% - Livesquawk


• Feds Bullard: This does not sound like a booming US economy


• Feds Kashkari: Fed needs to be more transparent about decisions


• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1Q GDP growth 0.9% versus 1.0% last


• Mexico"s finance minister expects 2017 GDP 1.3%-2.3%


• University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final) 96.9 vs. 97.6 est.


• Chicago purchasing managers index 57.7 vs 56.9 est


• Fed"s Dudley: A couple more rate hikes seems reasonable


• Canada MoM GDP MoM 0.6% vs. 0.3% est., YoY 2.3% vs. 1.9%


• February 2017 US PCE 2.1% vs 2.1% exp y/y


• The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

In other markets:

• S&P index fell by -0.23%


• NASDAQ composite index fell by -0.04%


• Dow industrial average fell by -0.31%


• Two-year notes 1.258%, -2.3 basis points


• five-year note  1.924%,, -3.9 basis points 


• 10 year note 2.391%, -2.8 basis points


• Spot gold  $1248.03, +$5.30, +0.43%


• Crude oil futures $50.75, $.41 or +0.1%

Today was the end of the week,, the month and the quarter. The most action was centered in the GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD. The EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD and NZDUSD traded most of the day with little movement although, there is some dollar buying at the end of the NY session that is extending the ranges a bit for some currency pairs.

Economically, today, the US personal spending rose by 0.1% vs 0.2% estimate. Income was higher by an expected +0.4%.  Later there was mixed news with Chicago PMI higher than expectations at 57.7 vs 56.9 while the University of Michigan sentiment final numbers were less than expectations at 96.9 vs 97.6 est.  The data did not have a great impact on the currency rates.  

There were some Fed speakers today with Feds Dudley, Kashkari and Bullard all speaking. Kaahkari is a voting dove. He did not vote for the last Fed hike. Bullard also has dovish tendencies. He is non voting this year but said he can see gradual hikes, but also added the economy is not making the noise of a booming one.  Dudley (voting) said that a couple more hikes in 2017 seemed reasonable and that the neutral target rate is 2-3%.  What was interesting is Kashkari and Bullard both talked about being in favor of winding down the Fed"s balance sheet going forward.  

How are the major pairs going out in trading today?

The GBPUSD moved up nicely - breaking away from the pairs 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.2484 area in the process. The largest gains in the NY session got going in the last hour of trading in the London session.  Was it some shorts covering into the weekend? Perhaps.  Later in the day, the CBOT commitment of traders data showed that shorts in the GBP remained near record levels.   Having a late day short squeeze higher after the market failed to stay below the 100 and 200 hour MAs makes more sense with the short backdrop of that pair.  The price moved above the 1.2500 level and then the high from yesterday at 1.2523. That is bullish technical news going into the weekend.  PS the EURGBP as stumbled lower 

More.

Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major currencies for the day.  

 

How did the USD do for the week?

Looking at the chart below the dollar gained 1.31% against the EUR but lost 0.53% against the CAD

For the quarter, the dollar was a loser against all the major currencies with the largest percentage decline against the AUD (-5.92%).

The dollar was only weaker by 0.84% against the Chinese Renminbi.  Pres Trump meets with the China"s President XI on April 6-7 at the "White House South". Needless to say, the discussion on the currency and trade will be #1 on the list for the global leaders of the worlds largest economies. 

Forexlive Americas forex new wrap. Dollar mixed on quarter end day
Forexlive Americas forex new wrap. Dollar mixed on quarter end day
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Technical Weekly: GBP/USD - Setting the Table for Cable

• GBP/USD ends consecutive quarter streak


• AUD/USD about to be let out of the cage?


• USD/JPY – huge level lines up in April

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EUR/USD

Monthly (LOG)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

“Recall that a key reversal occurred in January. There is divergence with RSI (monthly and weekly) and the decline from 2008 channels. The described conditions suggest a major bottoming scenario but if a new low is made then pay attention to 1.0200 (channel line).” Not much of anything has changed for EUR/USD on the long term charts. The downward sloping parallel near 1.1150 remains resistance as well as the trigger line for a major advance. A bearish outside week formed this week but a quarterly key reversal also formed in Q1 (new low and close above prior close).

GBP/USD

Quarterly (LOG)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

Previously; ‘the bullish outside week (2 weeks ago) argues for the bullish outcome. The bottoming pattern would trigger above 1.2700.” With Q1 in the books, we’re looking at a GBP/USD quarterly chart today. For the 3rd time in history, a string of 6 consecutive down quarters has ended. The prior to instances were major lows but also resolved with clean quarterly reversal candles. Q1 just carved an inside bar. Regardless, add this to the list of reasons to think that the table is set for Cable.

AUD/USD

Monthly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

AUD/USD has got to do something soon, right? Trending moves have developed from this region over the last few decades. The 1997 breakdown and 2006 breakout took place after consolidations that resolved near the current market price. The trending moves also commenced following reactions at the 12 month average, which was just support in March. Previously; “AUD/USD is back above .7700, which has been the ceiling for close to a year (since the April high…the 52 week closing high is .7719). I was looking for the dip to extend to the October and December 2015 highs at .7385 but FOMC lifted Aussie back to range highs. A deeper setback is still possible but don’t be stubborn on a breakout because upside potential is significant as per the weekly shift in momentum (RSI) (described in previous articles).”

NZD/USD

Quarterly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

I’m still not sure what to think with NZD/USD. Is the rally from August 2015 countertrend or a new trend? The 2016 and YTD highs are at major resistance from the 2011 low and a double top target is still unmet at .5899. A break under the 2015-2016 trendline would suggest a good deal more downside. Until then, keep an open mind. The quarterly chart highlights the importance of the long term median line as a point of reference. Basically, above is bullish and below is bearish. Kiwi has traded around the line for the last 4 quarters which has engendered a great deal of indecision with respect to direction. There are times to make a market call. This isn’t one of them.

USD/JPY

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

A major USD/JPY level could be met in April. The 52 week average (support and resistance for years) is near 108.30 and the 50% retracement of the decline is at 108.81 (the 1991 high was a 50% retracement of the 1990 decline by the way). The decline from the January high would consist of 2 equal legs at 108.49. This zone (108.30/81) intersects with the developing channel from the January high in mid-April. The channel is important because if the decline from January is corrective then price shouldn’t trade below the lower channel boundary for any extended length of time.

USD/CAD

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

The USD/CAD rally from May 2016 is corrective so the bias is for impulsive weakness but the proximity of a long term parallel to the December high increases risk of a bull trap on a push through the horizontal level (failed breakout). However, the March high is a few ticks below the 52 week closing high so it’s possible that USD/CAD is ready for its next leg lower. Weekly RSI has been failing near 40 since late 2016 which is bearish behavior.

USD/CHF

Quarterly (LOG)

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

An important behavior change took place in Q4 as USD/CHF broke through a parallel that had been resistance for over a decade. However, the lack of follow through in Q1 is reason enough to question whether the breakout will end up as a trap. Viewed in this context, continue to pay attention to the trendline that originates at the September 2011 low. The line has been support on every touch since 2015 (including the US election). A break below would be significant. The line is just below .9800.

Technical Weekly: GBP/USD - Setting the Table for Cable
Technical Weekly: GBP/USD - Setting the Table for Cable
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Investors unimpressed by Einhorn's GM share class plan: survey

File photo: David Einhorn, founder and president of Greenlight Capital, speaks during the Sohn Investment Conference in New York May 4, 2015.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Investors unimpressed by Einhorn"s GM share class plan: survey
Investors unimpressed by Einhorn"s GM share class plan: survey
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US stocks end the day lower. The quarter was a different story.

S&P -0.23% , Nasdaq -0.04% , Dow -0.32%

The US major indices are ending the day lower.

• The S&P is ending the day down -5.4 points or -0.23%


• The Nasdaq is ending the day down -2.60 points or -0.04% (no record high today)


• The Dow is ending the day down -65.82 points or -0.32%

For the quarter the story is different with all of the major global indices higher with the exception of the Nikkei posting gains. In the US for the quarter:

• The Nasdaq was up 9.82%


• The S&P gained 5.53% and the


• Dow was up 4.56%

Globally, the table below shows the historical % changes for the major global indices. Spain"s Ibex was the largest gainer, increasing by 11.9%. The Japan Nikkei was the only index down on the quarter. IT fell by -1.07%.

US stocks end the day lower. The quarter was a different story.
US stocks end the day lower. The quarter was a different story.
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CFTC Commitment of Traders: GBP shorts remain near record levels. EUR near square.

Forex futures net speculative positions as of the close of business on Tuesday March 28, 2017:

• EUR short 8K vs 20K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 12K


• GBP short 104K vs 108K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K


• JPY short 53K vs 67K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 14K


• CHF short 16K vs 12K short last week. Shorts increasedb by 4K


• CAD short 28K vs 24K short.  Shorts increased by 4K


• AUD long 53K vs 45K long.  Longs increased by 8K 


• NZD short 13K vs 13K short last week.  No change

GBP shorts were trimmed in the current week but only by 4K. It remains near record levels (last week was the record).  The chart below shows the trend in net shorts for the GBP. The large position keeps the door open for a short covering rally if the market is surprised.  

EUR shorts continue to be trimmed. They stand at 8K. The last time the EUR shorts were so small was back in May of 2014. See the chart below.  Traders are giving up on the chances for a run to parity.  

CFTC Commitment of Traders: GBP shorts remain near record levels. EUR near square.
CFTC Commitment of Traders: GBP shorts remain near record levels. EUR near square.
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Fannie, Freddie may write down $21 billion due to tax cut: BMO

File photo: A stands outside Fannie Mae headquarters in Washington February 21, 2014.

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Fannie, Freddie may write down billion due to tax cut: BMO
Fannie, Freddie may write down billion due to tax cut: BMO
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Third Avenue in $14.25 million settlement over junk bond fund collapse

Third Avenue Management, its founder Martin Whitman and other defendants have reached a $14.25 million settlement of a lawsuit by investors in a junk bond mutual fund they oversaw that collapsed in December 2015.

The preliminary accord resolves claims the defendants failed to ensure that the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund had enough liquidity to avert a demise, and the fund misrepresented its ability to properly value securities it owned.

Affiliated Managers Group Inc, which holds a majority stake in Third Avenue, previously set aside money to cover the settlement, which requires court approval.

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

Third Avenue in .25 million settlement over junk bond fund collapse
Third Avenue in .25 million settlement over junk bond fund collapse
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FTSE MIB, più che un indice, una locomotiva…

Investing.com – Il contratto Future FTSE MIB, con scadenza a giugno 2017, chiude a 20.051 punti, in guadagno del +0.57 %.

Al momento si collocano in terreno positivo 29 titoli su 38, con un range di variazione che va dal migliore (Buzzi Unicem (MI:BZU)) con un guadagno del +3.09%, al peggiore (Leonardo SpA (MI:LDOF) ), che perde il -1.34%.

Analisi:

questa è l’impressione…l’indice italiano ed il suo derivato, mantengono un comportamento simile a quello di una locomotiva capace di trainare qualsiasi peso in modo inarrestabile. Si fermerà questa corsa? …certamente sì! Prima o poi, è semplicemente inevitabile. Ma è normale questo andamento? Ebbene sì, lo è. Anche da un punto di vista puramente tecnico, questo andamento, seppur abbastanza difficile da giustificare nei fondamentali e nello stato generale dell’economia, è comunque del tutto nella normalità, quindi facciamocene una ragione. Quanto poi a sostenere che le condizioni delle principali aziende italiane, banche in testa, siano oggi equiparabili a quelle del gennaio 2016, anche questo, quasi ci sta. Che un recupero tanto importante potesse avvenire in tempi così rapidi…beh questo già ci sta un po" meno, ma tant’è. Se si pensa però, che nel 2007 l’indice quotava oltre 44000 punti, mentre all"inizio dello scorso novembre solo 16000, si può capire che un certo recupero di valore, possa avere un qualche fondamento. Il cambiamento, tuttavia, dal 2007 in poi, è stato epocale e negli anni seguenti è avvenuta una trasformazione radicale che ha scardinato l’intera impostazione del sistema economico, a livello mondiale. A che valori si deve quindi guardare? E" presto detto: 22500 punti come prima vera area di “difficoltà” per il rally, seguita poi, però, dalla successiva area posta a ben 28500 punti, per raggiungere eventualmente la quale, dovremo assistere ad una stabile violazione del precedente massimo a 24150 punti circa. Ma siamo ancora distanti dai potenziali primi punti d’arrivo di questa sfrenata corsa al rialzo? No, deve essere la risposta, ed il valore di 21150/22500 punti circa (di indice) potrebbero rappresentare delle tappe molto importanti. Rimane sempre il fatto che, una eventuale stabile violazione ribassista di 19700 punti, potrebbe comunque portare il trend a riorientarsi verso sud. Oggi tramite i segnali rilasciati a mezzo del canale Telegram non sono state eseguite operazioni. Chi desidera ricevere i segnali settimanali di lungo periodo gratuiti, inoltre, può chiederli mandando “richiedo” al mio indirizzo email personale, reperibile sul mio profilo qui sul sito Investing al seguente indirizzo: http://it.investing.com/members/2919 (copiare e incollare nella barra degli indirizzi del browser). Questi utili e gratuiti servizi sono offerti esclusivamente ai lettori del sito italiano di Investing.com, fatelo conoscere ai vostri amici, invitandoli a visitare e registrarsi sul sito it.investing.com, i lettori del sito Investing.com, beneficiano sempre di servizi utili e totalmente gratuiti. Buonasera e buon fine settimana. Francesco Lamanna

Future FTSE MIB, grafico su tf a 15 minuti

Chi gradisce questa analisi di fine giornata che viene qui regolarmente pubblicata, è gentilmente invitato a cliccare sul tasto "segui", manifestando, in tal modo, il suo gradimento.

Posizioni & operazioni del 2017:

Operazioni di trading in corso: short da 18.135 punti del 7 dicembre 2016 (CFDs)

Operazioni di trading aperte oggi: nessuna

Operazioni di trading chiuse oggi: nessuna

Ordini pendenti in attesa d’esecuzione: Ordine di vendita a livello molto superiore all’attuale (medio medio-lungo periodo); vedi segnali gratuiti Vedaforex®.

Gli indici migliori del FTSE MIB, alle 17.50, oggi sono:

FTSE Italia Alimentari (+2.46%)

FTSE Italia Viaggi e Tempo Libero (+1.55%)

FTSE Italia Chimica (+1.49%)

Gli indici peggiori invece sono:

FTSE Italia Materie Prime (-0.43%)

FTSE Italia Chimica e Materie Prime (-0.43%)

FTSE Italia Tecnologia (-0.22%)

La sessione odierna ha visto scambiare sino alle ore 17.40, n° 645.037.058 azioni per un controvalore pari a 2.238.222.991 Euro; i contratti conclusi sono stati 223.189 e le azioni in negoziazione sono state 355, delle quali 179 hanno chiuso in rialzo e 152 in ribasso; 24 sono quelle rimaste invariate.

I titoli oggi più scambiati in capitale sono stati:

Intesa (MI:ISP) :

Volume di scambio di 91.4M di titoli, per un controvalore di 233M di euro

Eni (MI:ENI) :

Volume di scambio di 14.8M di titoli, per un controvalore di 227M di euro

Enel (MI:ENEI) :

Volume di scambio di 48.8M di titoli, per un controvalore di 216M di euro

I titoli migliori sull"indice milanese sono in chiusura:

Buzzi Unicem (MI:BZU) quotato 24.00 (+3.09%)

Campari (MI:CPRI) quotato 10.87 (+3.03%)

Banca Generali (MI:GASI) quotato 24.50 (+2.64%)

Fra i peggiori troviamo oggi:

Leonardo SpA (MI:LDOF) quotato 13.29 (-1.34%)

Saipem (MI:SPMI) quotato 0.4225 (-1.25%)

Unipol (MI:UNPI) quotato 3.876 (-0.51%)

I rendimenti dei BTP italiani sono stati oggi del +2.14% sulla scadenza a 10 anni, del +0.82% su quella a 5 anni e del +0,10% su quella a 2 anni.

Positive, con l’eccezione di Londra e Zurigo, le altre maggiori piazze europee con gli Indici di: Amsterdam AEX che aumenta del +0.16%, Parigi CAC 40 che chiude in salita del +0.65%, Francoforte DAX, che cresce del +0.46%, Londra FTSE 100 che è in perdita del -0.63%, Madrid IBEX positiva del +0.55% e Zurigo SMI in scende del -0.52%.

Su base giornaliera, oggi il cross EUR/USD, ha assunto un andamento ribassista (-0.04% al momento della scrittura), il cambio ha raggiunto un massimo a 1.0702 ed un minimo a 1.0670; la coppia scambia ora a 1.0686.

FTSE MIB, più che un indice, una locomotiva…
FTSE MIB, più che un indice, una locomotiva…
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Q2 Opening Range In Focus For Yen

Talking Points:

• USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Recent push off 38.2% resistance should guide USD/JPY outlook


• USD/JPY – Short Term Hurdles at 111.60 and 112.60


• Previous Post: USD/JPY Technical Analysis: To Know Yen, Follow Yields For Now


• SSI is currently +2.3 on USD/JPY as 69.7% of retail traders are currently long: To stay up with the Speculative Sentiment Index, please click here.

USD/JPY did not end the week holding onto gains that had been accrued on month- and quarter-end USD strength. The US Dollar had a volatile week as many Fed Speakers took to the airwaves to share their view of what is to come in term of the monetary policy, and across the board, we see a confidence in the Dot Plot projections that were shared earlier this month when the Fed raised rates.

What’s worth knowing is that Economic Surprises, measured by the Citi Economic Surprise Index, has been on a sharp rise since October. Naturally, Economic Surprises do not persist, which means to me that the Fed holding to their prior views in light of improving economic data may limit the upside for the USD unless other currencies like the EUR or JPY begin to weaken aggressively.

As Q2 gets underway, what happens to the outlook for the USD (access our Q2 Forecasts here) will become important and could take USD/JPY lower. We already have strong data, so it’s hard to credibly extrapolate a similar gain in economic data going forward, which could limit the upside in Treasury Yields, which could also limit the upside in USD/JPY going forward.

March 31, 2017, Strong/ Weak Rating (JPY Strong/ NZD Weak)

The technical picture aligns nicely (for the bears) with the fundamental picture. The chart pattern that we recently focused on was a bear flag pattern, which is identified from a consolidating pattern that finishes by rejoining the trend, which for 2017 has been lower.

The price target for a bear flag breakdown is a 100% extension of the first move lower from the lower high. Where traders should take note is that the bear flag target (108.400 is a mere 20 pips away from the 200-DMA (108.20). This makes for a nice price target on the downside if you are a trend follower and a nice stop losslevel if you are a trader looking to buy USD/JPY before a presumed move higher.

For now, the bias will remain lower with obvious counter-trend moves along the way that are expected to lack follow through. Traders can watch the Ichimoku cloud on the H4 chart for shorter-term traders or Daily Chart for longer-term traders to find invalidation of the bearish view.

A move above 114 would argue that the breakdown on the bear-flag did not have the follow through and momentum to carry through, but I would watch UST Yields move above resistance as well as an Intermarket confirmation on such a countertrend development.

Interested in Joining Our Analysts, Instructors, or Strategists For a Free Webinar? Register Here

D1 USD/JPY Chart: USD/JPY Trading Lower On Validated Bear Flag Breakdown

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

USD/JPY Sentiment: Japanese Yen may weaken into support vs. USD

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 69.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.3 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jan 09 when USDJPY traded near 117.477; price has moved 5.2% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Mar 23 when USDJPY traded near 110.992. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% lower than yesterday and 2.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 19.9% higher than yesterday and 20.1% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDJPY price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

---

Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: Friday, March 31, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Q2 Opening Range In Focus For Yen
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Q2 Opening Range In Focus For Yen
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European closes the quarter with gains today

Gains for the quarter as well

The European preliminary closing levels point to gains:

• Eurostoxx 600 index is up 0.3% .  Third straight quarter of gains


• France"s CAC was up 0.5%


• German Dax was up 0.4%


• Spains Ibex was up 0.4%

Bucking the trend today was the UK FTSE which was down -0.4%. Nevertheless it ended the quarter with gains.  That represents the 4th straight quarter of gains.

Other accolades:

• Eurostoxx index rose by 5.5% for the 1Q which represents the best quarterly gain in 2 year. 

Gains for other indices on the quarter:

• UK FTSE +2.84%


• France CAC +5.15%


• German Dax +7.25%


• Italy MIB +6.47%


• Spain"s Ibex +11.66%

European closes the quarter with gains today
European closes the quarter with gains today
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US Baker Hughes rig count total up to 824 from 809. Up 15.

Oil trading at 50.33.  

Total rigs rose by 15 in the current week to 824 from 809. 

Oil rigs contributed +10 of that 15 to 662 vs 652 last week

Gas rigs added 5 to 160 from 155 last week.

It was the 11 straight week with increased oil rigs.  

This has been the best quarter addition since the 2nd quarter of 2011. 

Crude oil is little changed (actually up a few cents) after the report. 

The price this week bottomed at $47.01 on Monday.  The high was reached today at $50.56.  Technically, the price moved back above the 100 and 200 hour MA AND the 38.2% of the move down from the Feb 23rd high at $50.04. 

The 50% of the move lower comes in at $50.97

From early December until March 8th, the price traded in a $50 to $55. Getting above the $50 level is good technical news. Can it stay above?  It also is good for rig counts if the dip below $50 is just a temporary one. 

US Baker Hughes rig count total up to 824 from 809. Up 15.
US Baker Hughes rig count total up to 824 from 809. Up 15.
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DAX30: ancora forza sul weekly ?

Un saluto a tutti i lettori di Investing.com,

in quest"ultima seduta di settimana, vi propongo questa analisi flash sull"indice tedesco Dax30 Index.

Accedendo al mio profilo sul sito di investing.com

https://it.investing.com/members/109132007), trovate l"indirizzo del nostro canale Telegram, al quale potrete collegarvi per restare aggiornati su tutte le nostre attività formative e gratuite.

Grazie per la vostra attenzione!
Buon Trading Team VisionForex[embedded content]

DAX30: ancora forza sul weekly ?
DAX30: ancora forza sul weekly ?
http://it.investing.com/rss/market_overview.rss
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Analisi Ciclica dei Mercati Finanziari del 31 Marzo 2017

Buongiorno ai lettori di Investing.com, come ogni giorno, propongo l"appuntamento con l"analisi Ciclica dei Mercati Finanziari del team VisionForex.

Accedendo al mio profilo sul sito di investing.com (link: https://it.investing.com/members/200101673), trovate l"indirizzo del nostro canale Telegram, al quale potrete collegarvi per restare aggiornati su tutte le nostre attività formative e gratuite.

[embedded content]

Analisi Ciclica dei Mercati Finanziari del 31 Marzo 2017
Analisi Ciclica dei Mercati Finanziari del 31 Marzo 2017
http://it.investing.com/rss/market_overview.rss
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BOC Poloz: Canada GDP was good, but...

Media interview with Maclean"s magazine

Bank of Canada"s Poloz is on the newswires saying:

• Canada Q4 GDP wwas good on surface, but strength was not in sustainable categories


• We"ve got quite a way to go before we use up excess capacity


• Need government infrastructure program to contribute a great deal to excess capacity


• Output gap won"t close without infrastructure spending


• Uncertainty over NAFTA is creating a layer of uncertainty and holding back business

BOC Poloz: Canada GDP was good, but...
BOC Poloz: Canada GDP was good, but...
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JPM Q1 GDP tracker to 1% from 1.5% - Livesquawk

The trend is to the downside...

JP Morgan is now out with their GDP tracker. They see 1.0% in Q1 down from 1.5% earlier.

However,they now see Q2 GDP at 3% from 2%.  

So Peter is borrowing from Paul.

For the 2H they see 1.75% growth. Unchanged from prior estimates. 

JPM Q1 GDP tracker to 1% from 1.5% - Livesquawk
JPM Q1 GDP tracker to 1% from 1.5% - Livesquawk
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
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Il mondo delle Opzioni (non binarie)

Buongiorno ai lettori di Investing.com,

in video mostriamo i concetti fondamentali di questo affascinante quanto complesso strumento finanziario!

Accedendo al mio profilo sul sito di investing.com (link: https://it.investing.com/members/200101673), trovate l"indirizzo del nostro canale Telegram, al quale potrete collegarvi per restare aggiornati su tutte le nostre attività formative e gratuite.

[embedded content]

Il mondo delle Opzioni (non binarie)
Il mondo delle Opzioni (non binarie)
http://it.investing.com/rss/market_overview.rss
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Senate intelligence committee turned down Flynn's request for immunity

According to NBC

The Senate intelligence committee has turned down former national security advisors Michael Flynn"s request for immunity. This is according to a report by NBC.  

Senate intelligence committee turned down Flynn"s request for immunity
Senate intelligence committee turned down Flynn"s request for immunity
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NY Fed Nowcasting 1Q GDP dips to 2.9% from 3.0% last week

They are still near the high end of estimates

According to their website:

• The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.9% for 2017:Q1 and 2.6% for 2017:Q2.


• Negative news from consumption data reduced the nowcast by about one-tenth of a percentage point for both quarters.

NY Fed Nowcasting 1Q GDP dips to 2.9% from 3.0% last week
NY Fed Nowcasting 1Q GDP dips to 2.9% from 3.0% last week
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Ecco i numeri di una settimana movimentata sul Forex

La consueta video analisi sul mercato delle valute, proposta da Renato Decarolis.

[embedded content]

© 2017 Renato Decarolis

All rights reserved

Ecco i numeri di una settimana movimentata sul Forex
Ecco i numeri di una settimana movimentata sul Forex
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Feds Bullard speaking in NY at the bottom of the hour.

But he is not a voting member this year....

He also tends to waffle back and forth. Lately he has been more dovish than most but is starting to get more in line.  

Feds Bullard speaking in NY at the bottom of the hour.
Feds Bullard speaking in NY at the bottom of the hour.
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Goldman cuts 1Q GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.8% - Livesquawk

Due to softer consumer

Goldman Sachs is cutting its estimate for GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.8%.   They cite softer consumer growth.

The sub 2% growth in the 1Q is a bit of a worry.  It comes after a middle of the road 2.1% growth rate in the 4Q.

Fed"s Dudley spoke to this earlier today. Fed"s Bullard also alluded to it in his remarks and it could change perceptions at the Fed if it does not turn around soon.  

The dollar is falling now. The USDJPY is trading to new session lows. The EURUSD moves back toward the key 1.0700-06 area on the topside. The GBPUSD testing the day"s highs, and the USDCAD has forgotten its better than expected GDP from earlier today. The sharp fall has been nearly fully retraced.

Goldman cuts 1Q GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.8% - Livesquawk
Goldman cuts 1Q GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.8% - Livesquawk
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
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Market Overview del 31 marzo 2017

Buon pomeriggio ai lettori di Investing.com,

di seguito una video analisi panoramica sui mercati a cura di DominioBrokerClub e LiveTradingRoom che, mi auguro, possa esservi utile

[embedded content]

Market Overview del 31 marzo 2017
Market Overview del 31 marzo 2017
http://it.investing.com/rss/market_overview.rss
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University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final) 96.9 vs. 97.6 est.

Final for March

The final University Michigan"s consumer sentiment index comes in at 96.9 versus 97.6 (preliminary). 

• The current conditions fell to 113.2 from 114.5


• the  expectations fell to 86.5 from 86.7


• one year inflation  estimate rose to 2.5% from 2.4%


• 5 to 10 yyear inflation rose to 2.4% from 2.2%

University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final) 96.9 vs. 97.6 est.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final) 96.9 vs. 97.6 est.
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Mexico's finance minister expects 2017 GDP 1.3%-2.3%

Latest budget forecast

• 2018 Growth expected 2.0-3.0%


• See peso at 19.0 at the end of 2017


• Sees peso at 19.1 at the end of 2018

Yesterday Banco de Mexico raised rates by 25 basis points to 6.5%. The USDMXN trades at 18.768 currently.

Mexico"s finance minister expects 2017 GDP 1.3%-2.3%
Mexico"s finance minister expects 2017 GDP 1.3%-2.3%
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The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1Q GDP growth 0.9% versus 1.0% last

Remains on the low side for 1Q

The mmost recent Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate for first-quarter GDP growth comes in at 0.9% versus 1% last.

In their words:

"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 31, down from 1.0 percent on March 24. After this morning"s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 1.4 percent to 0.8 percent. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.49 percentage points to -0.16 percentage points after Tuesday"s Advance Economic Indicators Report from the U.S. Census Bureau."

The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 3. 

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1Q GDP growth 0.9% versus 1.0% last
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1Q GDP growth 0.9% versus 1.0% last
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
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US stocks open a bit weaker. Last day of the week/month/quarter

Could be some window dressing into quarter end

The US stocks are opening  a bit weaker.

• S&P index is down -4.81 points or -0.20%


• NASDAQ composite indexi s down -11.8 points or  -0.20%


• Dow industrial average is down -37 points or -0.18%

The US market debt market has lower yields:

• Two-year yield 1.261%,, -1.9 basis points


• 10 year yield 2.407%, -1.2 basis points


• 30 year yield 3.035%,, unchanged

The Chicago purchasing managers index is due out at 9:45 AM ET. The estimate is for a fall to 56.9 from 57.4.

US stocks open a bit weaker. Last day of the week/month/quarter
US stocks open a bit weaker. Last day of the week/month/quarter
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Chicago purchasing managers index 57.7 vs 56.9 est

Better than expectations.

The Chicago PMI index for the month of March comes in at 57.7 vs estimate of 56.9. It is also think higher than last months 57.4.  The level is the highest since January 2015.

The index has a ssw tooth pattern but moving higher and comfortably above the 50 level that is the dividing line between growth and contraction in the Manufacturing sector.  

The 3 mo rolling average is 55.1 up from 53.9 last month.

The 6M rolling average is 54.7 up form 54.1 last month.

Stocks have gotten a small boost after the data. The USDJPY is little changed.  Overall not much impact.

Chicago purchasing managers index 57.7 vs 56.9 est
Chicago purchasing managers index 57.7 vs 56.9 est
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Top Three Price Action Themes for Q2

Talking Points:

- Today marks the end of the first quarter, and below, we look at three of the more interesting price actionthemes for Q2.

- Q1 brought us even higher all-time-highs in stock prices along with a rate hike that few were expecting until two weeks before; and next quarter will likely be drive by just how hawkish the Fed might be at their June rate decision.

- If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. And if you’re looking for ideas that are more short-term in nature, please check out our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Indicator.

To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Monday marks the first day of the second quarter, and as we close the books on Q1 there are quite a few themes of considerable interest. Below, we look at three of the more interesting situations in the FX-world for next quarter.

Just How Hawkish is the Fed?

The first quarter saw quite a bit of change in this department as the first two months saw little expectation for a hike in March, as odds for a hike were hovering around 30-40% as we came into the month. But then the Fed got to work, and a series of Fed speeches in the first week of March helped to propel those odds-higher, along with the U.S. Dollar, as traders braced for a rate hike.

But when the Fed did hike rates for only the 3rd time in 10 years, the U.S. Dollar sold-off with aggression; and continued-lower until the last few days of the month; at which point the Fed has appeared to get to work again in the various interviews and commentaries that they’re sharing with the general public. This week saw no fewer than 13 Fed speeches already; and we have more on the docket for today on this last day of Q1. But of particular note is the tonality of those speeches as the Fed’s been rather apparent in attempting to transmit a hawkish-outlook to markets: We heard Mr. Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed mention the idea of four rate hikes in 2017, which would be even more-hawkish than the Fed’s own expectations as we came into this year. The net impact of this week’s Fed-speak has been re-ignition of the bullish theme in USD, as seen below:

Chart prepared by James Stanley

The big question around this theme for Q2 is whether or not the Fed hikes in June. Currently, markets are giving an approximate 59% chance for a rate hike in June (via CME FedWatch); and as the bank gets more vociferous around the topic of ‘two to three more’ rate hikes, we’ll likely see these odds continue to firm-up around a potential move in June. On the chart below, we’re looking at the shorter-term setup in the Greenback in the effort of plotting near-term bullish continuation setups.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Will the Cable Range Finally Give Way?

The Range in GBP/USD is now almost six months old. And despite the fact that the Pound has continued to dwindle around 30-year lows for almost half-a-year now, bears have been unable to create any significant drive below the psychological level of 1.2000.

But one area that has responded to that incredibly weak GBP have been importers and producers, as inflationary pressure in the U.K. continues to rise. At first, the BoE seemed unmoved by the prospect of stronger inflation; under the presumption that the risks of Brexit would outweigh the risks of potentially-higher inflation. But Brexit hasn’t turned out to be the business-killer that the BoE expected; at least not yet, and we’ve even heard as much from the chief economist at the Bank of England, Mr. Andy Haldane. In February, U.K. inflation spiked-higher; and at the March BoE meeting we saw the first vote for a rate hike since Brexit, and the meeting minutes indicated that we may be seeing more than one dissenting vote at future rate decisions.

This gives the appearance that we may be seeing a shift within the Bank of England around the prospect of near-term rate policy. For its part, Cable firmed-up as these more-hawkish indicators came into markets; but the longer-term range still very much applies here.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

The big question for this theme in Q2 is whether the BoE gets more-hawkish with their inflation expectations in their next QIR, due to be released on May 12th at the bank’s next Super Thursday.

Is This the Quarter that Stocks Begin to Stall?

Stock prices rode a rocketship-higher in the first part of Q1 to set even-higher all-time-highs; and this is likely at least part of the reason that the Fed felt confident enough to hike in March. But after that rate hike, matters appeared to change, at least for a couple of weeks, as stock prices set a series of ‘lower-lows’ and ‘lower-highs’ in the two weeks after.

The S&P gapped-lower to start this week after the failure around the AHCA, but support showed-up shortly after and since, we’ve seen prices running-higher. But we’ve just set a lower near-term low after this week’s gap-down; and we haven’t yet seen the prior swing-high on the daily chart taken-out at 2,381. So there are still bearish qualities on the short-term setup in the S&P 500.

The big question here is if this is finally the quarter that stock prices don’t extend their meteoric run. A more-hawkish Fed could drive this theme, as could further questions around fiscal policy; as investors tighten-up long positions ahead of another potential rate move.

On the chart below, we’re looking at near-term price action in the S&P 500; and the level around 2,316 could be interesting should prices fall-below, as this is the 50% marker of that 2017 major move and if price action does drive below – the door could be opened to near-term bearish strategies in the S&P 500. But until then – this is still a long-term, extended bull market.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

Top Three Price Action Themes for Q2
Top Three Price Action Themes for Q2
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US Core PCE Inflation Measure Stays Below Fed’s 2% Target

Talking Points

- The core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 1.8% year/year in February, well below the Fed’s 2% target.

- However, that won’t prevent the Fed from raising US interest rates several times this year, providing support for the Dollar.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

US inflation, as measured by the core PCE price index, was unchanged at 1.8% in February. The January number was revised up from 1.7% but the data still show the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation comfortably below its 2% target.

The Fed therefore remains on course to raise interest rates at least twice this year, and probably more, providing ongoing support for the Dollar, which barely moved on the figures.

Chart: EUR/USD 1’ Timeframe (March 31 Intraday)

Chart by IG

The headline PCE price index climbed by 2.1% year/year, up from 1.9% the month before but in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, personal incomes rose by 0.4% month/month, down from an upwardly revised 0.5%, while consumer spending increased by just 0.1% month/month, down from 0.2%. Both figures were in line with forecasts but the increase in spending was the smallest since August and suggested that first-quarter economic growth in the US could be soft.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

Don"t trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides

US Core PCE Inflation Measure Stays Below Fed’s 2% Target
US Core PCE Inflation Measure Stays Below Fed’s 2% Target
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Borse europee negative e poco mosse, Milano positiva con volumi sottili

Investing.com – Una seduta, quella odierna che fra piccoli up e piccoli down, non è ancora riuscita ad esprimere alcuna direzionalità.

Si ha quasi l’impressione che gli operatori siano assenti…tanto vanno a rilento i movimenti.

Gli scambi sono confinati, almeno sino al momento della presente lettura, in un ristretto range, con andamento laterale.

L’intonazione di fondo rimane rialzista ma passibile di correzioni ribassiste, anche profonde, il primo target up in attesa di essere raggiunto, rimane, per ora, quello di 20000 punti o poco più.

La quotazione del contratto Future FTSE MIB si trova attualmente a 19690 punti, in guadagno del +0.12 %, rispetto alla chiusura precedente.

Gli scambi totali in borsa vedono oggi sia il volume titoli (303 Mln) che il relativo controvalore trattato (926 Mln), in diminuzione rispetto a quelli rilevati, alla stessa ora, nella seduta precedente.

La piazza europea con la migliore performance è, al momento della presente lettura, Milano, con una performance del +0.12%.

La situazione europea attuale (ore 14:30 circa) sui principali indici, è la seguente: Amsterdam (-0.11 %), Parigi (-0.03 %), Francoforte (+0.09 %), Londra (-0.43 %), Madrid (-0.06 %) e Zurigo (-0.37 %).

Sono in maggioranza positive, al momento, le performance dei titoli bancari (FTSE MIB), che, per ora, vedono 2 titoli su 10 in guadagno; il miglior risultato viene dal titolo Banco BPM (MI:PMII) che, al momento, registra un guadagno del +1.62 %.

A Piazza Affari, al momento, fra i titoli migliori troviamo: Buzzi Unicem (MI:BZU) (+2.45%), Campari (MI:CPRI) +2.18 (%), Banco Bpm (MI:BAMI) (+1.69%) e Generali (MI:GASI) (+0.82%).

Sul fronte opposto, i titoli peggiori, al momento, sono: Banca Popolare dell Emilia Romagna (MI:EMII) (-1.11%), Leonardo SpA (MI:LDOF) (-1.04%), Unipol (MI:UNPI) Gruppo (-0.82%) e Saipem (MI:SPMI) (-0.91%).

Performance, al momento, negativa per il cambio del cross EUR/USD che scambia a 1.0682, in diminuzione del -0.07%.

Nel calendario economico odierno, fra le maggiori notizie troviamo: PIL annuale e trimestrale e partite correnti in UK, variazione della disoccupazione e tasso di disoccupazione in Germania, IPC annuale, discorso di Coeuré della BCE, indice dei principali prezzi al consumo in Zona euro, PIL mensile in Canada, spese personali, discorso dei membri FOMC Bullard, Kashkari, indice fiducia del Michigan, impianti di trivellazione Baker Hughes, PMI acquisti di Chicago negli USA.

Future FTSE MIB, grafico su tf a 15 minuti

Borse europee negative e poco mosse, Milano positiva con volumi sottili
Borse europee negative e poco mosse, Milano positiva con volumi sottili
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February 2017 US PCE 2.1% vs 2.1% exp y/y

Details from the February 2017 US personal income spending and PCE data report 31 March 2017

• 
  
  Prior 1.9%
  
  


• 
  
  
  
  
  

February 2017 US PCE 2.1% vs 2.1% exp y/y
February 2017 US PCE 2.1% vs 2.1% exp y/y
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Canada MoM GDP MoM 0.6% vs. 0.3% est., YoY 2.3% vs. 1.9%

Canada GDP for January

Canada"s GDP for the month of January came in much better than expected at +0.6% month on month Versus +0.3% estimate. The Year on Year came in at 2.3%  versus 1.9% estimate.

The better than expected data has sent the USDCAD to the downside and back toward the 100 day moving average at 1.32919.

Gross domestic product gains were on the strength of widespread growth across both goods- and service-producing industries. With the exception of October, gross domestic product has risen every month since June 2016.

The manufacturing sector was the largest contributor to the increase in gross domestic product, expanding 1.9% in January. With the exception of October, the manufacturing sector has grown every month since June 2016.

Retail trade grew 1.5% in January, the sixth increase in seven months, with 10 of the 12 subsectors advancing. Motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 1.2%, primarily on the strength of more activity at new car dealers. The largest decline in terms of output was a 3.3% contraction at gasoline stations.

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction expanded 1.9% in January after contracting 0.5% in December. 

Below is a look at the contributions of the different sectors in the GDP.  Good number.

Canada MoM GDP MoM 0.6% vs. 0.3% est., YoY 2.3% vs. 1.9%
Canada MoM GDP MoM 0.6% vs. 0.3% est., YoY 2.3% vs. 1.9%
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Crude Oil Prices Rebound From Yearly Lows

Talking Points:

• Crude Oil Prices Rebound From Yearly Lows


• Daily Resistance Found at $51.34


• Looking for additional trade ideas for crude oil & commodities markets? Read Our Market Forecast

Crude oil prices are rebounding this week, after breaking out to new 2017 lows earlier in the month. Technically,previous daily support for crude oil was found at $51.34. Now with the commodity retracing, this value is now acting as a key value of daily resistance. If prices fail to breakout above $51.34, traders may look for crude to turn back lower, and dip back below the 10 day EMA (exponential moving average) found at $49.32. In the event that prices remain supported here, a technical breakout would suggest that the commodity is then prepared to again challenge the standing 2017 high at $55.67.

Crude Oil Price, Daily Range with Average

(Created Using IG Charts)

Intraday analysis has crude oil trading just above today’s central pivot found at $50.13. If prices continue to rally, the next points of intraday resistance include the R1 and R2 pivots found at $50.82 and $51.31. Traders should continue to monitor today’s R2 pivot for a breakout. In this bullish scenario, it would open up the possibility that crude oil would also break above the previously mentioned daily value of resistance at $51.34.

In the event of a bearish turn, traders may look for prices to find support near $49.65. A breakout below this point should be seen as significant as it would place crude oil in a position to then test the 10 day EMA at $49.32. In this bearish scenario, traders may look for the next key value of intraday support at the S2 pivot which is found at $48.95.

(Created Using IG Charts)

Sentiment analysis for crude oil prices (Ticker: US Crude), shows the majority of traders positioned net long. The current SSI ratio seen below stands at +1.83. With 64.7% of traders positioned long, this typically suggests that crude oil prices may be positioned to again decline. In the even that a bearish breakout occurs, traders may look for SSI figures to shift towards new positive extremes of +2.0 or greater next week. Alternatively in the even that crude oil pushes higher, it would be expected to see sentiment ratios shift back towards a more natural value and the potentially shift to a negative reading.

--- Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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Crude Oil Prices Rebound From Yearly Lows
Crude Oil Prices Rebound From Yearly Lows
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