Forex news for Asia trading Friday 31 March 2017
- Trump to sign EOs Friday aimed at identifying abuses causing US trade deficits
- Iron ore - ANZ upgrade forecasts: expect prices to hold around USD80/t in Q2 2017
- Japan inflation, household spending, industrial production data - recaps
- Gold forecast from BNP, lower due to Fed hikes
- HSBC AUD forecasts and RBA outlook
- USD/JPY & EUR/JPY orders
- PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.8993 (vs. yesterday at 6.8889)
- China Manufacturing PMI (March): 51.8 (expected is 51.7)
- China vice foreign minister says no currency devaluation policy to promote exports
- China Service PMI (March): 55.1 (prior was 54.2)
- EUR/USD orderboard
- China PMIs - expect them any time now
- Australia, private sector credit for February: 0.3% m/m (expected +0.5%)
- AUD and NZD orderboards
- NZ data: ANZ (March) Activity Outlook 38.8 (prior 37.2)Business Confidence 11.3 (prior 16.6)
- Japan (Feb. prelim.) Industrial Production 2.0% m/m (vs. expected 1.2%)
- Japan headline inflation (February): 0.3% y/y (vs. expected 0.2%)
- Japan - (Feb) Overall Household Spending: -3.8% y/y (expected -1.7%) (& more data)
- US admin appeals Hawaii federal judge"s ruling blocking revised travel ban
- Heads up for Japan inflation data due at the bottom of the hour (and other data too)
- UK data - GfK Consumer confidence for March: -6 (vs. expected -7)
- US politics ... WSJ: Mike Flynn Offers to Testify in Exchange for Immunity
- Trump on the Twitter on China, trade deficits and US jobs
- Australia - (APRA) Regulator new measures on mortgage lending
- New Zealand Building Consents (permits) for February: +14.0% m/m (prior +0.8%)
- More on Fed"s Dudley saying Federal Reserve not considering selling MBS
- New Zealand employee confidence Q1 2017: 109.9 (prior was an 8-yr high 112.7)
- Trade ideas thread - Friday 31 March 2017
- More from Fed"s Dudley: 2% inflation target is not a ceiling
- ZAR crosses under pressure - cabinet reshuffle talk, fin min sacked?
- French regulators update Forex broker warning list ... better check this out!
- US Com Sec Ross - comments on when to expect 90 day Nafta consultation period
- Fed"s Dudley: Risks to US growth, inflation may be shifting to the upside
- Economic data due from Asia today - Japan CPI day, China PMis
- ICYMI: Forexlive America"s Forex news wrap: US dollar recovers in NY session
A busy day for news and data, but not too much currency movement to accompany.
For data, Japan and China were the focus; from Japan:
- Japan (Feb. prelim.) Industrial Production 2.0% m/m (vs. expected 1.2%)
- Japan headline inflation (February): 0.3% y/y (vs. expected 0.2%)
- Japan - (Feb) Overall Household Spending: -3.8% y/y (expected -1.7%) (& more data)
From China, it was official PMI day:
- China Manufacturing PMI (March): 51.8 (expected is 51.7)
- China Service PMI (March): 55.1 (prior was 54.2)
News flow was from the US ... you"ll never guess ... was all politics related!
- Trump to sign EOs Friday aimed at identifying abuses causing US trade deficits)
- US admin appeals Hawaii federal judge"s ruling blocking revised travel ban
- US politics ... WSJ: Mike Flynn Offers to Testify in Exchange for Immunity
- Trump on the Twitter on China, trade deficits and US jobs
- US Com Sec Ross - comments on when to expect 90 day Nafta consultation period
The yen was a mover today, weakening against the USD and crosses. It was the last day of the Japanese fiscal year, and thus the FY final Tokyo fixing. USD/JPY traded higher into the fix, and never really backed off much afterwards. The range has not been large, though, from lows around 111.70 early for USD/JPY up to a high (as I update) of circa 112.20. The sharpest part of the upmove came ahead of the fixing.
Having said this, inflation and household spending data was weak, again; an argument still in favour of a weak yen. These data points make the argument afresh pretty much every month though.
From Australia today we got an announcement from the prudential regulator (APRA, not the RBA), trying to tighten up lending for housing (see bullets above for more details). Various commentary has the tightening as far too little, but maybe it"s a next step with more to come. We"ll see. If enhanced prudential rules do weigh on house price growth it gives the Reserve Bank of Australia scope to cut further, not that this seems to be a likely development at this stage. In other Australian news (data actually) today, credit numbers came in weaker.
NZ data early in the session showed a huge surge in m/m building approvals for February (see bullets above for the devil in the details).
Apart from against the yen, currencies were subdued. EUR and CHF are barely changed on the session vs. the USD. Cable is a few tics higher. AUD/USD is little changed, NZD a touch softer (some AUD/NZD buying was evident during the session, but the range was small).
Gold is down small, so is oil.
South Africa"s finance minister was replaced - ZAR under pressure early here in Asia time (see bullet above for more details)
Regional equities:
- Nikkei +0.55%
- Shanghai +0.29%
- HK -0.49%
- ASX -0.15%
ForexLive Asia FX news: USD/JPY higher on last day of Japan FY
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