Forex Tutor: aprile 2017

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domenica 30 aprile 2017

"Five big investment themes for the week ahead"

Via Reuters over the weekend, a broad view of 5 themese for the week ahead

French presidential election next weekend

Italy - Former prime minister Matteo Renzi looks set to regain the leadership of Italy"s ruling Democratic Party in a vote on Sunday, a move that could raise the chances of early elections.

A big week for US policy & data (Inflation, FOMC, NFP ... and more)

"Sell in May and go away"

EM economies growth across is recovering

More here at the piece.

An interesting choice of the 5.

It didn"t even make the top 5 but I woulda put the RBA at #1. then again, I"m biased ;-)

"Five big investment themes for the week ahead"
"Five big investment themes for the week ahead"
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Brexit - UK press (Times front page): May renews threat to walk away from EU without a deal

On the front page of The Times for Monday, more Brexit blather. UK PM May:

May renews threat to walk away from EU without a deal

May responding to EU comments that she is living in a "parallel reality""

27 EU member states took just four minutes to agree a hardline stance on Brexit at a summit meeting in Brussels before Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission, and Michel Barnier, the chief European Union Brexit negotiator, rounded on the prime minister.

Earlier in the weekend Mike had tois on the 4-miunte agreement:

EU 27 leaders agree Brexit negotiation guidelines in rapid time

Brexit - UK press (Times front page): May renews threat to walk away from EU without a deal
Brexit - UK press (Times front page): May renews threat to walk away from EU without a deal
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Here is the big data point coming up from the US on Monday (PCE)

It"s a big week for major events on the eco calendar. Kicking oof today in the US with ...

The Federal Reserve"s preferred inflation is the personal consumption expenditures price index (1230GMT)

Issued by the US Commerce Department

The March figures coming up on Monday

The Bloomberg survey has expected at -0.1% m/m (that"s for core PCE prices m/m)

(while the WSJ survey of analysts has the expected at report flat)

Prior was +0.2% in February (the overall PCE index in February was up 2.1% y/y)

Also due from the US today, Personal Income and Spending for March (1230GMT)

expected 0.3% and 0.2% respectively

prior 0.4% and 0.1% respectively

And:

1400GMT - ISM Manufacturing Index for April

expected 56.5, prior 57.2

Also 1400GMT Construction Spending for March

expected 0.5%, prior 0.8%

Here is the big data point coming up from the US on Monday (PCE)
Here is the big data point coming up from the US on Monday (PCE)
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Euro Treads Water After ECB Holds Course, Waiting for French Elections

Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral

- The Euro was able to hold onto its gains from the first round of the French election results, even as the ECB was conspicuously neutral on Thursday.

- Upcoming Q1’17 Euro-Zone GDP data to confirm that region has seen broadly improved growth prospects through the early part of the year..

- See how the French elections fit in with our Q2’17 EUR/USD forecast.

The Euro has proven resilient in the wake of the first round of the French presidential elections, holding onto the majority of its gains across the board as traders digested last Sunday’s vote tallies. With centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right populist Marine Le Pen heading towards a runoff on May 7, it’s very likely that the Euro will prove to retain its sense of stability that transpired after last week’s gap open higher.

Ahead of the May 7 election, the same polls that were as accurate as accurate could be for the first round of the French elections show that Macron is favored to beat Le Pen handily in a week’s time. Markets have more or less priced in this outcome as well by this point in time, with various measures of short-term volatility (one- and two-week, as well as one-month) collapsing significantly after the April 23 first round vote. Historically, rising volatility has proven negative for the Euro; should it stay retrenched, then the environment would suggest market participants have pushed the premise of an existential threat to the Euro (i.e, a ‘Frexit’) out of their minds.

Absent preparations for the final round of voting in France, the Euro has been further stabilized by a lack of movement along the policy front by the European Central Bank. To no one’s surprise, the April meeting provided little of interest from President Mario Draghi and the Governing Council, which wasn’t expected to any degree given that it was a meeting without new staff economic projections. Like so many other major central banks, in an effort to become more transparent, the ECB has become predictable: no policy changes will be announced unless there are new forecasts in hand to justify the change in approach.

That said, the ECB had another reason to sit on its hands last week and uphold the status quo (aside from refusing to wade into the French political scene): it wanted to avoid a market reaction like what resulted in the wake of the March policy meeting. The Euro, alongside rising sovereign debt yields, moved broadly higher after the March meeting as market participants took the tone of President Draghi’s press conference as a sign the ECB was moving towards the exit from its extraordinary easing measures – a misinterpretation, apparently, after a concerted ECB pushback at the end of last month.

Now, with the ECB holding a steady hand and the final round of the French presidential elections looming, the Euro should continue along its rangebound path that emerged in the final week of April. There will be bursts of volatility thanks to data and events on the economic calendar, but nothing that should destabilize the market. If anything, upcoming PMI readings and the preliminary Q1’17 Euro-Zone GDP reading will show that growth conditions in the region have been improving steadily through the early part of the year. If by this time next week Macron is the next president of France, the Euro very-well have seen its biggest risk for 2017 fade quickly into the rearview mirrow.

See how the French elections will impact the Euro over the rest of Q2’17 - check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list.

Euro Treads Water After ECB Holds Course, Waiting for French Elections
Euro Treads Water After ECB Holds Course, Waiting for French Elections
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Trade ideas thread - Monday 1 May 2017

First day of the new month, first trade ideas thread!

Charts,

technical analysis,

trade ideas,

thoughts,

views ...

If you"d like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

Trade ideas thread - Monday 1 May 2017
Trade ideas thread - Monday 1 May 2017
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Alitalia - Italian economy minister says shutdown would be a shock for GDP

Italy"s Industry Minister Carlo Calenda spoke on the government"s EUR400 million bridging loan to the airline

"It (sudden closure) would be a shock for GDP (economic output) much greater than the scenario that we are looking at: a brief period of six months covered by a bridging loan from the government so as to find a buyer who could provide services that Italians need as travelers"

Liquidators are examining scenarios to sell the business. More

Alitalia - Italian economy minister says shutdown would be a shock for GDP
Alitalia - Italian economy minister says shutdown would be a shock for GDP
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Iran Oil Minister - positive signals from OPEC & non-OPEC for extension of cuts

Iran"s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh speaking with media over the weekend

Said "During these last days we received a positive signal from OPEC members and non-OPEC contributors in this agreement for cutting the production for extending this agreement for the second half of 2017"

Iran would support extending the output cut agreement also.

via Reuters

A quick glance at the behaviour of the oil price in recent days indicates why producers would like to cut supply further:

Iran Oil Minister - positive signals from OPEC & non-OPEC for extension of cuts
Iran Oil Minister - positive signals from OPEC & non-OPEC for extension of cuts
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ICYMI - Weekend China data for manufacturing & services PMIs (lower)

Weekend official PMIs from China:

China Manufacturing PMI (April): 51.2 (expected 51.7)

China Services PMI (April): 54.0 (prior was 55.1)

Long story short, both are at robust levels still (eg. for the manufacturing PMI, its fall was from a near 5 year high in March). However:

Services PMI fell to its lowest for six months

Weakness in both the manufacturing (falling demand, lower commodity prices, slower growth in exports) and non-manufacturing was across the board

Policy emphasis in China is swinging a little to deleveraging and thus government stimulus is expected to slow (eg. the PBOC is cutting accommodation a little)

ICYMI - Weekend China data for manufacturing & services PMIs (lower)
ICYMI - Weekend China data for manufacturing & services PMIs (lower)
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Monday morning 1 May 2017, Forex prices, early indications

Good morning, welcome to the start of the new FX week & month.

Market liquidity is super thin as it always is at this time of the new week.

Price guide:

EUR/USD 10905

USD/JPY 111.32

GBP/USD 1.2950

USD/CHF .9943

USD/CAD 1.3657

AUD/USD .7477

NZD/USD .6865

EUR/JPY .84132

EUR/CHF 1.08349

EUR/JPY 121.38

GBP/JPY 144.158

Usual caveats apply - it is very illiquid and prices can move sharply on not very much at all.

Monday morning 1 May 2017, Forex prices, early indications
Monday morning 1 May 2017, Forex prices, early indications
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China Manufacturing PMI (April): 51.2 (expected 51.7)

This is official manufacturing PMI, we"ll get the private survey (Caixin / Markit) during the week

Comes in at 51.2

expected 51.7

prior 51.8

The previous result (March) improved, higher prices & property-boom related demand helpimg it along. A slip this month though, and a miss on expectations.

The non-manufacturing PMI for April has also slipped from March (separate post).

As an input to the AUD these will be a negative.

Earlier this week Bloomberg had a piece up on some of the other private-sector economic indicators:

Standard Chartered Plc"s Small and Medium Enterprise Confidence Index

The China Economic Panel, a joint project of The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim, Germany, and Fudan University in Shanghai

China Satellite Manufacturing Index

Sales manager sentiment

S&P Global Platts China Steel Sentiment Index

Like the two PMIs from China today, these showed a small loss of momentum for the economy.

China Manufacturing PMI (April): 51.2 (expected 51.7)
China Manufacturing PMI (April): 51.2 (expected 51.7)
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sabato 29 aprile 2017

Expect drama as Congress gives itself a week to avert government shutdown

Congress needs a plan to fund the government through September

In a sign of how stubborn fiscal hawks are on spending, 16 House Republicans voted against Friday"s emergency bill to extend funding for a week.

Reuters is out with a good story on markets in Trump"s first 100 days and it underscores how stocks that were favored after Trump"s election win have lagged since inauguration and the stocks that struggled after election night have made a comeback. It highlights how difficult it"s been for a Republican-dominated administration from getting anything done.

The market is still in love with tax reform but how this week goes will be the best sneak preview so far into how unified the Republican party is.

At the moment, it looks like the bill will pass with Democratic support and some Republican opposition. But when it comes to healthcare and tax reform, Republicans will have a tougher time looking across the aisle for help.

More at Bloomberg.

Expect drama as Congress gives itself a week to avert government shutdown
Expect drama as Congress gives itself a week to avert government shutdown
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EU 27 leaders agree Brexit negotiation guidelines in rapid time

EU-27 leaders have today approved the 31 March draft guidelines 29 April 2017

There must have been something special on the menu in the canteen as it only took a minute to approve the guidelines first issued by European Council President Donald Tusk on 31 March

Those guidelines in full here but in essence it means that talks will begin after the UK general election on 8 June and the deadline for completing the negotiations is 29 March 2019.

The fact that it took only a minute to rubber stamp the draft proposals shows the EU-27 intent to show unity and it"s reported that all 27 burst into a round of applause. No Theresa May there of course.

More importantly though it confirms that no talks on future EU/UK relations will begin until the exit process is completed and includes the not so small matter of the divorce payment by the UK which the EU estimate to be around €60bln because of EU budget rules. The UK has said it will pay nothing like that amount.

Yesterday Ryan reported a Bloomberg "sources" story ( now seemingly yet another one wide of the mark) which suggested the EU was ready to start talks before deciding the Brexit bill and that duly gave the pound a lift. We would expect initial posturing from both sides but in a politically charged environment with French, UK and German elections all in play this does seem that the EU27 are not offering too many olive branches at the start.

At the risk of being accused of talking my book I think today"s confirmation should see GBP pairs open lower in Asia and with the US/N.Korea uncertainty playing out again I"d expect GBPJPY to lead the way down again.

Keep in mind also that it"s a public holiday in UK and much of Europe on Monday so markets will be extremely thin not helped by the robots unable to book a day off.

Caution advised and I will be popping by at some point to cast an eye over events and add what thoughts I can.

Enjoy your week-end one and all. It"s going to be another lively week ahead in the fickle world of forex.

May/Tusk discussions could be getting a little less cosy

EU 27 leaders agree Brexit negotiation guidelines in rapid time
EU 27 leaders agree Brexit negotiation guidelines in rapid time
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Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Policy Path Back in the Spotlight

Financial markets" cheery mood after the first round of France"s presidential election will be tested as Fed decision-makers issue a verdict on the world"s largest economy.

US Dollar Forecast:US Dollar at Risk as Fed Decision-Makers Reconvene

The road ahead may prove challenging for the US Dollar after it enjoyed its best week yet in 2017 as all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement.

Japanese Yen: Disappointing Data Add to Downside Pressure

As predicted here a week ago, the Japanese Yen declined last week and there’s little sign yet that the trend is about to change.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: The Loonie Lacks Wings

The Canadian dollar is the worst performing G10 currency in April, with USDCAD at its highest since February 22 2016.

British Pound Forecast: Hawkish Fed, Strong NFP to Tame GBP/USD Recovery

The relief rally in the GBP/USD exchange rate may gather over the days ahead as it breaks out of a near-term holding pattern

Australian Dollar Forecast:Australian Dollar Faces Nervy Week Despite Central Bank Inertia

The Australian Dollar has been weakening against its US counterpart since mid-March. That trend will probably endure this week, but may not worsen.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Slide as Market Jitters Subside- FED / NFPs to Steer

Bullion looks to close the month higher by nearly 1.4% as weakness in the greenback and renewed geo-political tensions fueled demand.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Eyes on Chinese PMI, More Weakness Likely

The USD/CNH continued to consolidate in a range this week; it failed to set a lower low or a higher high. Looking forward, event risks could add volatility to the pair.

Equities Forecast: S&P 500 Has Eyes for New Highs, DAX Too

Looking ahead, Monday may be relatively quiet with major financial centers in Europe closed for holiday.

Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Policy Path Back in the Spotlight

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the DailyFX SSI readings on the sentiment page.

Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Policy Path Back in the Spotlight
Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Policy Path Back in the Spotlight
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Australian Dollar Faces Nervy Week Despite Central Bank Inertia

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

The Australian Dollar faces policy decisions from both its home central bank and the US Federal Reserve

Neither is expected to alter the settings this month

But the wait to see what they actually do could keep things balanced for AUD/USD

It may be your favorite currency, but who’s with you? Take a look at the DailyFX sentiment page.

This looks like a nervy, tricky week for an Australian Dollar which has been stuck in a downtrend since mid-March. There are tentative signs that that trend is slowing, and that some sort of AUD/USD base might form around current levels. But they are tentative.

It’ll be a tale of two central banks unfold for the Aussie, too. Monetary policy decisions are due on Tuesday from the Reserve Bank of Australia and on Wednesday from the US Federal Reserve.

It’s the Fed that is likely to have most impact, but neither may have much.

After all, to say that the RBA is expected to leave its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at the record low of 1.5%, at which it has languished since last August, is to understate the case. The ASX 30-day interbank cash futures implied yield curve (a longhand way of saying “Australian interest rate bets”) implies a 98% chance of no change on Tuesday.

Indeed, it doesn’t price in any change to the OCR this year, and hasn’t for some time. But last week’s news of an admittedly modest miss for Australian consumer price rises in the first quarter has only made markets more sure that there’s “nothing to see here” when it comes to the RBA.

The Fed isn’t expected to alter policy on Wednesday either, although markets do see more rate rises ahead this year even though much US economic data isn’t quite as strong as it was. Last month evena relatively hawkish Fed wasn’t enough to see the greenback rise in response. The Fed seems unlikely to sound any more hawkish this month, so there may be some Aussie respite in prospect there.

There’s also the final round of France’s presidential election looming on Sunday May 7. Polls suggest an easy win for the centrist Emmanuel Macron against euro-skeptic right-winger Marine Le Pen, but any boost for risk asserts on the fact of this may have to wait until next week.

Manufacturing data will come from China, in the shape of the official and private Purchasing Manages Indexes for the sector. If these come in strongly they might put a bit of floor under the Aussie, but the currency isn’t always a China proxy and this support is not guaranteed.

All up then, this week looks like a neutral one for the Australian currency, albeit one within a broader AUD/USD downtrend. For most likely risk events, there’s a countervailing chance of some support from elsewhere, although the hair-trigger geopolitics of the moment could mean that all bets come off at any point.

Yes, neutral it has to be.

Heading lower, maybe not too far this week. AUD/USD Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Faces Nervy Week Despite Central Bank Inertia

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

Australian Dollar Faces Nervy Week Despite Central Bank Inertia
Australian Dollar Faces Nervy Week Despite Central Bank Inertia
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S&P 500 Has Eyes for New Highs, DAX Too

What’s inside:

S&P 500 fails to trade to new record highs last week, could this be the week? (NFPs on Friday)

DAX is holding the French election-gap well, supported by prior highs

FTSE 100 lagging behind, caught between levels of support and resistance

S&P 500

U.S. markets started off last week gapping sharply higher on the outcome of the first round of the presidential elections in France; the CAC 40 traded up over 4% on optimism of a Macron victory over Le Pen at the upcoming May 7 run-off election. Not only did the gap hold in the U.S., but the Nasdaq 100 continued notching new record highs throughout the week. The S&P 500 turned lower on Wednesday after coming just three points shy of the 2401 mark, but maintained a large chunk of the weekly gains.

Looking ahead, Monday may be relatively quiet with major financial centers in Europe closed for holiday. In terms of scheduled ‘high’ impact data events, we have Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) and ISM Manufacturing on Monday; and the big event of the week coming on Friday when the April jobs report is due out. The market will be looking for a strong rebound in NFPs (+180k estimate) after the big miss in March of only +98k. For details, see the economic calendar.

There was a minor reversal day on Wednesday from just shy of the March 1 record high, and it is still unclear if it will hold further bearish implications. The longer the market hangs out at elevated levels, though, the more likely it was only a sign of short-term exhaustion. Looking to support, not far below lies the November trend-line and April 5 high at 2378. It would require a sharp break for us to start thinking about a gap-fill from last Monday, but should the market trade beneath the gap-day low of 2369 then the likelihood will increase significantly. All-in-all, a breakout to new record highs could be in store for the as long as support levels hold.

S&P 500: Daily

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For a longer-term view on markets, check out our Q2 forecasts.

DAX

The DAX started last week off with a monster day on the back of results from the first round of the French presidential elections. The ECB met on Thursday, but provided little in the way of volatility in the absence of any changes to interest rates or any strong guidance. Looking ahead, ‘high’ impact data events the market may be focused on include German unemployment data and Euro-zone GDP on Wednesday. For a detailed list of scheduled events, see the economic calendar.

Most of Europe will be on holiday to start the week; German and French markets will be closed for Labour Day on Monday, while the UK will be off in observance of ‘Early May Bank Holiday’. How the DAX opens on Tuesday will not only depend on any meaningful news which may hit the wires between now and then, but will also likely find influence from the start of the week in Asia and the U.S.

Following last Monday’s surge, the DAX did a whole lot of nothing, trading bullishly quiet. Meaning, a market which doesn’t quickly begin retracing a large gain has an increased likelihood of making another push higher, sooner rather than later. Maintaining above the prior highs at 12375/91 is the most bullish scenario, with leniency towards testing the gap-day low of 12289. Should the market fall back into the gap, though; risk will quickly rise of seeing it fill back down to 12048. At this time, we look for the market to hold and push higher. Looking higher, resistance first arrives at last week’s high of 12486, the August 2016 top-side trend-line, and then the trend-line running over peaks since late-February.

DAX: Daily

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FTSE 100

To start the week, the market will be closed in observance of ‘Early May Bank Holiday’. Once trading resumes on Tuesday it is likely participants will take cues from any significant weekend headlines, and how markets unfold in Asia and the U.S. It’s a very quiet week on the economic data front.

Last week, the footsie popped from support on the French election news, but ran aground into staunch resistance in the vicinity of 7255/300. After a couple of days of churning the market was unable to overcome the 7300 mark and turned lower to end the week. Of the major global indices we track, the FTSE has become the least buoyant of the bunch, and also the most difficult to get a handle on. It’s in a position of being caught between support by way of the rising trend-line off the June low and the beforementioned resistance zone. It could be a quiet week of bouncing around between levels before finally seeing a resolution. We’ll reside in the ‘wait-and-see’ camp until the picture becomes clearer.

FTSE 100: Daily

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For a full line-up of live events with DailyFX analysts, see theWebinar Calendar.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

S&P 500 Has Eyes for New Highs, DAX Too
S&P 500 Has Eyes for New Highs, DAX Too
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Gold Prices Slide as Market Jitters Subside- FED / NFPs to Steer

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold Technical Analysis: Rally Approaching Critical Resistance at 1278

What’s driving gold prices? Review DailyFX’s 2Q Gold Projections

Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT

Gold prices fell for the second consecutive week with the precious metal down more than 1.2% to trade at 1267 ahead of the New York closes on Friday. Bullion looks to close the month higher by nearly 1.4% as weakness in the greenback and renewed geo-political tensions fueled demand. The rally failed at key technical levels however and heading into the May open, prices may yet remain on the defensive.

The FOMC rate decision is on tap next week and although the central bank is widely expected to leave policy unchanged, traders will be looking for changes in the statement as Yellen & Co look to prep markets for upcoming adjustments to the benchmark interest rate. Improving labor market metrics (save last month’s off-beat miss) and a 2% read on 1Q Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) on Friday will continue to put pressure on the Fed to further normalize policy. As it stands, markets are pricing 1-2 additional hikes this year with Fed Fund Futures noting a 67% likelihood of a June hike. That said, for gold the emphasis will remain on the timing and scope of future rate increases. Remember that higher interest rates will tend to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold.

Highlighting the data docket will be the release of April Non-Farm Payroll figures on Friday with consensus estimates calling for a print of 193K after last month’s disappointing read of just 98K. Unemployment is expected to uptick to 4.6% but we’ll be on the lookout for further improvement in the labor force participation rate to offset this. From a technical standpoint, the start of May trade finds prices continuing to slide after responding to key multi-year technical resistance earlier this month.

A summary of the IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.49 (71.3% of traders are long)

Long positions are 8.7% higher than yesterday and 10.6% below levels seen last week

Short positions are also 6.9% lower than yesterday and a full 22% below levels seen last week

The build in long positioning continues to point lower in gold prices. It’s worth noting however that the recent washout in short exposure does leave the immediate decline at risk heading into the May open.

How does current retail Gold positioning help identify trend? Get more information on Sentiment here Free!

Gold Weekly

Back on April 13th we cited expectations for “a high in gold over the next few weeks” as prices approached a key long-term resistance confluence region with “initial weekly support at the 52-week moving average, currently ~1255-60”. Indeed gold prices topped on April 17th with the pullback testing initial support this week at 1260- note that this level also converges on the 2011 trendline and if broken on a weekly close basis, would validate a near-term reversal in the prices. Failure of daily RSI to push through the 60-thrshold also warns of near-term waning momentum.

Gold Daily

A closer look at the daily chart highlights this near-term pullback with daily support seen at 1255 where a basic 23.6% retracement of the December advance converges on the 200-day moving average. The near-term risk remains weighted to the downside while below 1278 with a break below 1241 shifting the focus towards 1229 & 1220 – both areas of interest for exhaustion / long-entries. Bottom line: heading into the May open we’ll be on the lookout for a move lower into structural support, ultimately to offer more favorable long-entries.

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

Gold Prices Slide as Market Jitters Subside- FED / NFPs to Steer
Gold Prices Slide as Market Jitters Subside- FED / NFPs to Steer
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Hawkish Fed, Strong NFP to Tame GBP/USD Recovery

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral

The relief rally in the GBP/USD exchange rate may gather over the days ahead as it breaks out of a near-term holding pattern, but the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) May 3 interest rate decision may tame the recent advance should the central bank show a greater willingness to raise the benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later.

Even though Fed Fund Futures continue to highlight a greater than 90% probability the FOMC will stay on hold in May, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may increase their efforts to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the committee appears to be well on its way to fulfil its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability. The pickup in the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, may push the committee to adopt a more hawkish tone, and the central bank may lay out a more detailed exit strategy as officials look to unload the balance sheet later this year or in early-2018. At the same time, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to pick up in April, with the economy anticipated to add another 193K jobs, and a batch of hawkish Fed rhetoric paired with a further improvement in labor market dynamics may curb the near-term outlook for pound-dollar especially as the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be in no rush to move away from its easing-cycle.

However, a more bullish scenario may emerge for Cable should the FOMC stick to the current script and attempt to buy more time in response to the lackluster 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The marked slowdown in private-sector consumption, one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation, may prompt the central bank to revisit its economic assumptions as officials warn ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation had remained low; survey-based measures of inflation compensation were little changed on balance.’ Moreover, NFPs may continue to fall short of market expectations as the labor market appears to be at or near full capacity, and a series of dismal developments may fuel the relief rally in GBP/USD as market participants push back bets for the next Fed rate-hike.

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The near-term outlook for GBP/USD remains constructive as it breaks out of a continuation pattern and starts to carve a series of higher highs & lows. The relief rally may accelerate going in May especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends the bullish formation from March and pushes into oversold territory, with the next topside hurdle coming in around 1.3090 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3120 (78.6% retracement). However, the lack of momentum to hold/close above the former-support zone around 1.2860 (61.8% retracement) to 1.2950 (23.6% expansion) may generate a pullback in the exchange rate, with the first area of interest coming in around 1.2630 (38.2% expansion) to 1.2680 (50% retracement).

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Retail trader data shows 39.3% of traders are net-long GBP/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.55 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since April 12 when GBP/USD traded near 1.24863; price has moved 3.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.0% lower than yesterday and 9.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.2% higher than yesterday and 1.9% higher from last week. May see retail sentiment approach near-term extremes as the crowd appears to be stuck on the wrong side of the market following the breakout in the exchange rate.

For More Information on Retail Sentiment, Check Out the New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning

Hawkish Fed, Strong NFP to Tame GBP/USD Recovery
Hawkish Fed, Strong NFP to Tame GBP/USD Recovery
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The Loonie Lacks Wings

Fundamental Forecast for the Canadian Dollar: Bearish

Trump’s tariff on Canadian lumber sank the currency

Soft economic data flow compounds downward pressure

NAFTA threat fizzles, employment data on tap ahead

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The Canadian dollar is the worst performing G10 currency in April, with USDCAD at its highest since February 22 2016.

The Loonie’s losses versus the US Dollar intensified earlier this week after new US tariffs of up to 24% on Canadian lumber imports were announced by the Trump administration. Its woes have been underpinned by weakening oil prices, which have been falling for the past two weeks.

Weak data aren’t helping matters either. USDCAD soared today, April 28, to fresh highs on weak Canadian GDP data. The Canadian economy stalled in February after robust growth in January with gains in service-producing industries offset by declines in the goods sector, Statistics Canada said.

Gross domestic product was flat year-on-year, matching forecasts. Month-on-month, GDP rose to 2.5% in February from 2.3% in January, which was below the 2.6% figure expected by analysts.

Stalling growth means the Bank of Canada, which was cautious about the economic outlook at its April 12 meeting, is unlikely to alter its current neutral stance on monetary policy. What’s more, Canada’s annual inflation rate cooled more than expected in March, pulling away from the central bank’s, underscoring the expectations that interest rates will stay put for some time.

Much of the weakness seen in CAD over recent sessions has been down to President Trump’s threat to withdraw from the NAFTA agreement. He’s since agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this stage, but indicated that he would move quickly to begin renegotiation, so CAD is likely to stay under pressure.

Next Friday brings us Canadian payrolls data for April. Canadian employment added 19.4k jobs in February, surpassing expectations and causing the CAD to edge higher. Before this, on Thursday, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will be speaking in Mexico.

The Loonie Lacks Wings
The Loonie Lacks Wings
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Japanese Yen: Disappointing Data Add to Downside Pressure

Fundamental Forecast for JPY: Bearish

The latest Japanese data have been weaker than expected, suggesting no reduction in monetary stimulus for the foreseeable future.

Moreover, as Korean tensions rise, the Japanese Yen is losing its “haven” status.

Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

As predicted here a week ago, the Japanese Yen declined last week and there’s little sign yet that the trend is about to change.

According to the Bank of Japan, the outlook for the economy is improving and inflation is picking up, but there was no indication of that in the latest hard data, which were disappointing. Japan’s core consumer prices rose 0.2% in March from a year earlier, compared with economists’ median estimate of a 0.3% annual gain. Excluding fresh food and energy, consumer prices fell 0.1% in March from a year earlier.

Meanwhile, industrial output contracted in March after just one month of growth as production of machinery and electronics declined, and household spending contracted by 1.3% year/year in March – better than February’s fall of 3.8% but a disappointment compared with expectations of a drop of just 0.3% and the 13th straight month of lower spending.

So, as the Bank of Japan said, the risks are still skewed to the downside, and that means no likelihood of its quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) measures being reduced as far as the eye can see. Indeed, its loose monetary policy stance is now more justified than ever given the weak inflation data, so the BoJ will continue to be in no hurry to tighten policy and that will mean a continuing lack of support for the Yen and a likely strengthening further of USD/JPY.

Chart: USD/JPY One-Hour Timeframe (April 14-28)

Chart by IG

Moreover, as I reported last week, the Japanese Yen is in danger of losing its “haven” status due to its proximity to the troubled Korean peninsula. So even if traders decide to lessen their exposure to risky assets for whatever reason, they are now more likely to opt for the Swiss Franc and gold. That is a toxic mixture for the Yen and suggests the upward trend in USD/JPY is set to continue.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides; they’re free and updated for the second quarter of 2017

If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, check out the IG Client Sentiment Data

Japanese Yen: Disappointing Data Add to Downside Pressure
Japanese Yen: Disappointing Data Add to Downside Pressure
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venerdì 28 aprile 2017

Forexlive Americas forex news wrap: US GDP tiny, but who cares? It's just the 1Q.

Forex news for trading on April 28, 2017.

US stocks end the session with small declines

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Shorts increasing in the CAD. GBP shorts trimmed a bit.

Key earnings releases next week: AMD, Merck, Apple, Facebook, Tesla...FOMC and US Employment too

US Crude oil futures settle the week $49.33 /BBL

Goldman raises chance for a June rate hike to 70%

Baker Hughes total rig count comes in at 870 vs 857 last week

S&P: Ratings On United Kingdom Affirmed At "AA/A-1+"

Gold up a few bucks in trading today

IFOP poll has Macron at 60% and LePen at 40%

European stocks end the mixed. Gains for the week.

NY Fed Nowcast sees 2Q GDP at 2.3% (from 2.1%)

US House of Representatives votes to avert government shutdown for a week

US Sec. of State Tillerson: Threats of nuclear attack on Japan and S.Korea real

Blackrocks Larry Fink not speaking to positively about US

US April University of Michigan sentiment index final 97.0 vs 98.0 exp

Chicago April PMI 58.3 vs 56.2 exp

Chances of 2 more rate hikes this year rise after US GDP data

Canada Industrial Prod Prices 0.8 % vs. 0.3% est. Raw Material Prices -1.6% vs -0.5%

US Q1 annualized GDP flash qq 0.7 % vs 1.0% exp

February 2017 Canadian GDP 0.0% vs 0.1% exp m/m

The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

In other markets today:

Spot gold was up $4.10 or 0.32%

WTI crude oil is up $0.21 to $49.18

US stocks were lower. S&P fell by -0.19%, Nasdaq was down by -0.02% and the Dow was down by -0.19%

In the US debt market: 2 year yield 1.265% up 0.8 bp. 5 year 1.8175%, down -0.4 bp. 10 year yield 2.287%, down -0.7 bp. 30 year yield 2.956%, down -0.7 bp.

The US GDP data for the 1Q came in at plus 0.7% "annualized" vs 1.0% estimate. Since the quarter is "annualized", it means the QoQ growth was less than 0.2%. That is not a lot and certainly not what you would have expected with all the hoopla from the soft data spikes on the back of the Trump presidency. But, for whatever reason, the seasonal for the 1Q are notoriously off (with a downward bias), so the market shrugged off the weakness and chose to keep the dollar mixed with gains against the JPY, CHF, CAD and NZD and losses against the EUR, GBP and AUD.

The regional Chicago PMI came in better than expected at 58.3 vs 56.2. On Monday and Wednesday, we will get the national Manufacturing and non-Manufacturing data. The University of Michigan final look for April was weaker at 97.0 vs 98.0. Still, that is near high levels that existed before the 2008 crash that saw the index move from 97.0 to around 55.0.

Other than that, there was talk from Sec. of State Tillerson, UK PM May, BOJ Abe and even China about N. Korea and the risk from that tiny nation. Gold ended the day up $4.00 but I would not say the fear factor led to the small bid today.

In the stocks today, the indices ended near low levels despite blow away earnings from AMZN, Alphabet after the bell on Thursday. No new record for the Nasdaq today but the week ended with gains led but the Nasdaq which a gain of 2.32%.

In ca

-------------------------------------

Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major currencies vs each other. The GBP was the strongest. For the GBPUSD it marched higher away from the 1.2900-14 level today. The NZDUSD was the weakest.

Forexlive Americas forex news wrap: US GDP tiny, but who cares? It"s just the 1Q.
Forexlive Americas forex news wrap: US GDP tiny, but who cares? It"s just the 1Q.
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US stocks end the session with small declines

S&P down -0.19%. Dow down -0.19%. Nasdaq down -0.02%

The US major stock indices are ending the session with small declines.

S&P was down -0.19% or -4.57 points to 2384.20. The high for the day reached 2393.68. The low for the day reached 2382.36.

Nasdaq was down -1.332 points or -0.02% to 6047.60. The high today reached 6074.03. The low reached 6040.707

The Dow fell by -40.82 points or -0.19% to 20940.51. The high today reached 20987.76. The low extended to 20926.75.

For the week, the major indices benefited from the gains from Brexit and modest follow through during the week.

The Nasdaq was the big winner for the week, rising by 2.32%

The S&P rose by 1.91%

The Dow rose by 1.51%.

Today is also the last day of the calendar month, and stocks are ending with gains (thanks in part, to the gains this week).

The Nasdaq rose by 2.30% this month

The S&P rose by 0.91%.

The Dow rose by 1.34%.

For the year (just for giggles):

The Nasdaq is leading the way with a 12.34% gain

The S&P is up 6.49% and

The Dow is up 5.96%.

Overall, investors in equities cannot be disappointed with the overall performance of the equity markets with 1/3 of the calendar year complete. What will the next 1/3 bring?

As posted earlier, the earnings calendar is chock-a-block with big time names that have helped propel the overall market higher including Facebook, Tesla, and Apple.

US stocks end the session with small declines
US stocks end the session with small declines
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Future FTSE MIB, Orsi o Tori, nessuno si impegna...

Investing.com – Il contratto Future FTSE MIB con scadenza a giugno 2017 chiude oggi a 20.285 punti, in contrazione del -0.01 %.

Al momento si collocano in terreno positivo 17 titoli su 40, con un range di variazione che va dal migliore (Mediobanca (MI:MDBI)) con un guadagno del +3.88%, al peggiore (Yoox Net-A-Porter Group SpA (MI:YNAP)), che cede del -1.81%.

Analisi:

sembra che siamo già in vacanza…la Festa dei Lavoratori del primo di maggio fa sentire la sua presenza e i mercati sono svogliati: basta osservare le variazioni percentuali di chiusura dei listini europei per rendersene conto, si tratta di pochi decimali. La situazione risulta pertanto quasi invariata rispetto a ieri e tutto viene rimandato alla prossima settimana. Il contratto Future sul paniere milanese è rimasto in un ristretto range con continui up & down, che hanno in chiusura espresso una impercettibile tendenza ribassista. Pur in presenza di buoni volumi di scambio, la quotazione è riisultata poco variata in chiusura. Anche l’analisi della situazione generale rimane pertanto invariata, con il livello di 20650 a far da supporto e soglia d’accesso per un ulteriore ribasso verso area 20150 o meno. Anche Il primo target rialzista di medio periodo rimane invariato e compreso fra i valori di 20660 e 20750, per poterlo vedere raggiunto è ora necessaria una reale violazione del precedente massimo, postato in data 25 aprile a 20560 punti. Nessuna operazione basata sui segnali rilasciati tramite il canale Telegram è stata oggi eseguita. collegatevi per la prossima settimana, trovate l"indirizzo nel mio profilo personale. Chi desidera ricevere i segnali settimanali di lungo periodo gratuiti, può chiederli mandando “richiedo” al mio indirizzo email personale, reperibile sul mio profilo qui sul sito Investing.com al seguente indirizzo: http://it.investing.com/members/2919 (copiare e incollare nella barra degli indirizzi del browser). Questi utili e gratuiti servizi sono offerti esclusivamente ai lettori del sito italiano di Investing.com, fatelo conoscere ai vostri amici, invitandoli a visitare e registrarsi sul sito it.investing.com, i lettori del sito Investing.com, beneficiano sempre di servizi utili e totalmente gratuiti. Buonasera. E Buona festa del 1° maggio. Francesco Lamanna

Future FTSE MIB, grafico su tf a 15 minuti

Chi gradisce questa analisi di fine giornata che viene qui regolarmente pubblicata, è gentilmente invitato a cliccare sul tasto "segui", manifestando, in tal modo, il suo gradimento.

Posizioni & operazioni del 2017:

Operazioni di trading in corso: short da 18.135 punti del 7 dicembre 2016 (CFDs)

Operazioni di trading aperte oggi: nessuna

Operazioni di trading chiuse oggi: nessuna

Ordini pendenti in attesa d’esecuzione: Ordine di vendita a livello molto superiore all’attuale (medio medio-lungo periodo); vedi segnali gratuiti Vedaforex®.

Gli indici migliori del FTSE MIB, alle 17.50, oggi sono:

FTSE Italia Tecnologia (+3.09%)

FTSE Italia Beni e Servizi Industriali (+0.58%)

FTSE Italia Industria (+0.54%)

Gli indici peggiori invece sono:

FTSE Italia Beni Immobili (-0.87%)

FTSE Italia Alimentari (-0.76%)

FTSE Italia Telecomunicazioni (-0.74%)

La sessione odierna ha visto scambiare sino alle ore 17.40, n° 721.060.653 azioni per un controvalore pari a 2.555.220.905 Euro; i contratti conclusi sono stati 275.651 e le azioni in negoziazione sono state 360, delle quali 191 hanno chiuso in rialzo e 150 in ribasso; 19 sono quelle rimaste invariate.

I titoli oggi più scambiati in capitale sono stati:

Intesa (MI:ISP) :

Volume di scambio di 134M di titoli, per un controvalore di 357M di euro

Unicredit (MI:CRDI) :

Volume di scambio di 23.1M di titoli, per un controvalore di 345M di euro

Eni (MI:ENI) :

Volume di scambio di 12.4M di titoli, per un controvalore di 177M di euro

I titoli migliori sull"indice milanese sono in chiusura:

Mediobanca (MI:MDBI) quotato 8.825 (+3.88%)

STM (MI:STM) quotato 14.84 (+3.63%)

Banca Popolare dell Emilia Romagna (MI:EMII) quotato 5.020 (+3.21%)

Fra i peggiori troviamo oggi:

Yoox Net-A-Porter Group SpA (MI:YNAP) quotato 24.40 (-1.81%)

Saipem (MI:SPMI) quotato 0.3956 (-1.54%)

Campari (MI:CPRI) quotato 10.86 (-1.27%)

I rendimenti dei BTP italiani sono stati oggi del +2.28% sulla scadenza a 10 anni, del +1.07% su quella a 5 anni e del +0,03% su quella a 2 anni.

Negative, con l’eccezione di Zurigo, le altre maggiori piazze europee con gli Indici di: Amsterdam AEX che scende del -0.15%, Parigi CAC 40 che chiude in peggioramento del -0.08%, Francoforte DAX, che diminuisce del -0.05%, Londra FTSE 100 che è in discesa del -0.46%, Madrid IBEX positiva del +0.30% e Zurigo SMI in perdita del -0.36%.

Su base giornaliera, oggi il cross EUR/USD, ha assunto un andamento rialzista (+0.37% al momento della scrittura), il cambio ha raggiunto un massimo a 1.0948 ed un minimo a 1.0857; la coppia scambia ora a 1.0905.

Future FTSE MIB, Orsi o Tori, nessuno si impegna...
Future FTSE MIB, Orsi o Tori, nessuno si impegna...
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Technical Weekly: USD/CAD and 40 Year Old Trendlines

GBP/USD could pause but headed to 1.3500

USD/JPY turns where it should

USD/CAD major zone

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--Technical Weekly wishes to share some monthly charts in today’s report as a new month begins on Monday.

EUR/USD

Monthly (linear)