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giovedì 1 giugno 2017

Forexlive European FX News 1 Jun.

Sterling and Aussie under the pump


A new month and new beginnings, but some things never change. It has been an interesting morning, and despite relatively narrow ranges there have been opportunities.


.


I think it is appropriate to commence with my home currency. We saw a small bounce from Asia"s low of 0.7385 early  with sell orders 0.7415-20 filled .Actually 0.7420 has been the high thus far. The bearish sentiment is starting to weigh heavy now, with rallies becoming shallow and sell stops building below the market. Selling on the crosses has been noted as well. From here I favour a break of 0.7385, before an attempt at those 0.7330 stops


Sterling had an interesting morning, with EURGBP flows dominating .The 0.8750 level proved to hard to crack first up, as cable rallied from1.2840 to a session high of 1.2890. Better than expected  Markit PMI help to sustain gains, although the reversal has been typical of Sterling and we now trade 1.2835. EURGBP is back at 0.8750, having looked gone at 0.8715


Euro has been range bound, with a 1.1220-1.1250 range so far. European PMI"s were mostly positive, however the market seemed to be influenced more on cross flows .


USD/JPY has been a creeper, with offers  111.15-20 being tested. Range to date, 110.90-111.15.Yen crosses have been fairly subdued, with some selling interest against the Aussie


European equities have remained positive, with Gold and silver a little lower on the day 


Forexlive European FX News 1 Jun.
Forexlive European FX News 1 Jun.
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Aussie heads south again

Deep south, not just yet


We presently trade at 0.7401, having tested as high as 0.7420 in early European trading .

Noted sellers circa 0.7415 have been filled, with traders now looking for a test/break of the Asian low of 0.7385

NFP will no doubt play its part, but I think its a sell on rallies ( don"t you just love that one).

My own take is to be short against the Canadian dollar as this will ease the USD shock post data





Aussie heads south again
Aussie heads south again
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Forex - Il dollaro mantiene i guadagni in attesa dei dati USA

© Reuters. Forex - Il dollaro mantiene i guadagni in attesa dei dati USA© Reuters. Forex - Il dollaro mantiene i guadagni in attesa dei dati USA


Investing.com - Il dollaro mantiene i guadagni contro le altre principali valute questo giovedì, con gli investitori in attesa dei report economici USA nel corso della giornata e dei dati sull’occupazione di domani.


Il cambio EUR/USD va giù dello 0,13% a 1,1230.


Il biglietto verde guadagna terreno questo giovedì ma i guadagni resteranno limitati in un clima di apprensione per le indagini sui legami tra il Presidente Donald Trump e la Russia che potrebbero rallentare i progressi del governo sulle misure di stimolo promesse.


Il governo Trump è sotto indagine da parte dell’FBI e altri comitati per la presunta ingerenza della Russia nelle elezioni presidenziali del 2016 e la possibile collusione con la campagna di Trump.


La coppia GBP/USD scende dello 0,17% a 1,2867, staccandosi dal minimo della seduta di 1,2841 dopo che il gruppo di ricerche di mercato Markit ha reso noto che l’indice dei direttori acquisti sul settore manifatturiero britannico è sceso a 56,7 il mese scorso da 57,3 di aprile. Gli analisti avevano previsto un calo a 56,5.


Il sentimento sulla sterlina resta però vulnerabile dopo l’ultimo sondaggio di YouGov rilasciato ieri che ha rivelato che il Partito Conservatore di Theresa May ha solo 3 punti percentuali di vantaggio rispetto al Partito Laburista in vista delle elezioni dell’8 giugno.


Il cambio USD/JPY sale dello 0,28% a 111,09, mentre la coppia USD/CHF è in salita dello 0,30% a 0,9706.


Il dollaro australiano e quello neozelandese sono in calo, con la coppia AUD/USD giù dello 0,30% a 0,7408 ed il cambio NZD/USD che scende dello 0,11% a 0,7075.


L’Australian Bureau of Statistics ha reso noto che le vendite al dettaglio sono balzate dell’1% ad aprile, più dello 0,3% previsto.


La coppia USD/CAD scende dello 0,14% a 1,3480.


Intanto, i dati mostrano che l’attività manifatturiera in Cina è andata in contrazione per la prima volta dal luglio 2016. L’indice PMI di Caixin è sceso a 49,6 a maggio da 50,3 del mese prima, deludendo le attese di un calo a 50,1.


I dati deboli hanno alimentato i timori per un rallentamento della seconda economia mondiale.


L’indice del dollaro USA, che replica l’andamento del biglietto verde contro un paniere di altre sei principali valute, sale dello 0,13% a 97,04, non lontano dal minimo di una settimana di ieri di 96,80.



Forex - Il dollaro mantiene i guadagni in attesa dei dati USA
Forex - Il dollaro mantiene i guadagni in attesa dei dati USA
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Dollaro in recupero da minimi, ma mercato compra euro su ribassi

© Reuters. Dollaro in recupero da minimi, ma mercato compra euro su ribassi© Reuters. Dollaro in recupero da minimi, ma mercato compra euro su ribassi


LONDRA (Reuters) - Riprende fiato il dollaro sfruttando la risalita dei rendimenti sui Treasury nelle contrattazioni della mattinata, pur confermandosi in vista dei recenti minimi da sei mesi e mezzo sull"euro.


** Parole di ottimismo per le prospettive dell"economia americana sono arrivate dal presidente della Fed di San Francisco Williams. A suo parere lo scenario base è quello di tre rialzi dei tassi nel corso del 2017 (incluso quello già effettuato) ma non è esclusa l"ipotesi di quattro interventi, ad esempio nel caso in cui venga messo in campo un forte stimolo fiscale da parte dell"amministrazione Usa.


** A metà mattinata l"euro/dollaro tratta appena sopra il minimo intraday di 1,1224, livello comunque non distante dal massimo da sei mesi e mezzo toccato la settimana scorsa a 1,1268.


** I dati finali di maggio sui Pmi di zona euro, Germania e Francia si sono attestati a grandi linee sui livelli delle stime flash, confermando un quadro di solida crescita per il settore. In Italia, la seconda lettura del Pil del primo trimestre ha registrato una revisione al rialzo a +0,4% congiunturale da +0,2% della stima flash.


** "Abbiamo visto qualche presa di profitto sull"euro questa settimana, legata alle preoccupazioni su Italia e Grecia e a qualche commento accomodante di Draghi" spiega lo strategist di Bank of America Merrill Lynch Athanasios Vamvakidis. "È interessante quanto veloce sia stato il rimbalzo. Chiaramente gli operatori cercano di comprare euro sui ribassi, ma per il momento probabilmente prevarrà un po" di attesa per i numeri di domani dal mercato del lavoro Usa".


** Il biglietto verde è in recupero anche sullo yen, di circa lo 0,3%, nonostante il buon dato di questa mattina dal manifatturiero giapponese.


** Si conferma sulla difensiva la sterlina nei confronti del dollaro, in area 1,2875, anche se in recupero dal minimo intraday di 1,2841; sulla divisa britannica pesano i sondaggi in vista delle elezioni dell"8 giugno, secondo cui è sempre più risicato il vantaggio dei Conservatori del premier May sui Laburisti.




Dollaro in recupero da minimi, ma mercato compra euro su ribassi
Dollaro in recupero da minimi, ma mercato compra euro su ribassi
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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Euro Rally Stalls - Now What?


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Talking Points:


  • EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat

  • Euro rally stalls below 0.86 figure against the British Pound

  • Overall trend still bearish but actionable trade setup absent

A Euro recovery has paused to digest gains below the 0.86 figure after prices advanced to the highest level since mid-March against the British Pound. The trend since the beginning of the year continues to be defined by a series of lower highs and lows, but at this point just barely so.





From here, a daily close above the May 26 high at 0.8751 opens the door for a test of the 0.8787-94 area (March 3 high, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion). Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib retracement at 0.8664 sees the next downside barrier at 0.8611, the 38.2% threshold.




A compelling trading opportunity looks to be absent for now. The absence of a defined short trade signal warns against attempting to fade recent gains while proximity to resistance means that betting on continuation is unattractive from a risk/reward perspective. On balance, standing aside seems prudent for now.


What makes EUR/GBP one of the top DailyFX trades for 2017? See our forecast and find out!


EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Euro Rally Stalls - Now What?

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Euro Rally Stalls - Now What?
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Euro Rally Stalls - Now What?
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Looking for Direction Below 1.13


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Talking Points:


  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat

  • Euro locked in wide range below 6-month high vs. US Dollar

  • Setup inconclusive despite fading relative strength readings

The Euro has stalled after rising to the highest level in six months against the US Dollar, will prices oscillating in a wide range below the 1.13 figure. Fading relative strength studies point to ebbing upside momentum, but that is no sure sign of on-coming reversal and may only reflect consolidation.





Range top resistance is marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1272, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 1.1374. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% expansion at 1.1209 exposes the 23.6% Fib retracement at 1.1104.




Current positioning does not seem to offer an attractive trading opportunity. Prices are too close to resistance to make a long bet attractive from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a clear-cut bearish reversal signal warns that taking the short side is premature. Staying flat seems best for now.


Retail traders expect the Euro to fall. Find out here what this hints about the coming price trend!


EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Looking for Direction Below 1.13


EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Looking for Direction Below 1.13
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Looking for Direction Below 1.13
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Diretta Mercati, indicazioni operative del 1 giugno, 2017

Buongiorno,


di seguito troverete le indicazioni operative per la giornata odierna, con il rilascio dei livelli operativi di prezzo e ciclici inerenti ai principali cambi oltre a indici di borsa e commodities.


CAMBI ANALIZZATI:


EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USDJPY,EURGBP ,


INDICI E MATERIE PRIME:


DAX


Petrolio Greggio


Oro


Di seguito la video analisi (Durata 17:13 minuti)


[embedded content]



Diretta Mercati, indicazioni operative del 1 giugno, 2017
Diretta Mercati, indicazioni operative del 1 giugno, 2017
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Forex - GBP/USD riduce perdite dopo dati in G.B., resta sotto pressione

Forex - GBP/USD riduce perdite dopo dati in G.B., resta sotto pressioneForex - GBP/USD riduce perdite dopo dati in G.B., resta sotto pressione


Investing.com - La sterlina riduce le perdite contro il dollaro questo giovedì, dopo la pubblicazione dei dati migliori del previsto sull’attività del settore manifatturiero britannico, anche se continua a pesare l’incertezza politica nel Regno Unito.


La coppia GBP/USD si stacca da 1,2841, il minimo della seduta, registrando 1,2876 negli scambi della mattinata europea, in calo dello 0,10%.


Supporto a 1,2770, il minimo di ieri e di un mese e resistenza a 1,2949, il massimo del 26 maggio.


Il gruppo di ricerche di mercato Markit ha reso noto che l’indice dei direttori acquisti sul settore manifatturiero britannico è sceso a 56,7 il mese scorso da 57,3 di aprile. Gli analisti avevano previsto un calo a 56,5.


Il sentimento sulla sterlina resta però vulnerabile dopo l’ultimo sondaggio di YouGov rilasciato ieri che ha rivelato che il Partito Conservatore di Theresa May ha solo 3 punti percentuali di vantaggio rispetto al Partito Laburista in vista delle elezioni dell’8 giugno.


Intanto, il biglietto verde guadagna terreno questo giovedì ma i guadagni resteranno limitati nei timori che le indagini sui legami tra il Presidente Donald Trump e la Russia possano rallentare i progressi del governo sulle misure di stimolo promesse.


Il governo Trump è sotto indagine da parte dell’FBI e altri comitati per la presunta ingerenza della Russia nelle elezioni presidenziali del 2016 e la possibile collusione con la campagna di Trump.


La sterlina è stabile contro l’euro, con la coppia EUR/GBP a 0,8717.



Forex - GBP/USD riduce perdite dopo dati in G.B., resta sotto pressione
Forex - GBP/USD riduce perdite dopo dati in G.B., resta sotto pressione
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Aaaand Cable slips again

Having a nose bleed at high altitude




It may be choppy, but as my old chief dealer used to say" at least its moving shagga"

I think he still  says this,must be up for 40 years at least



We are testing 1.2850, having peaked at 1.2890 following the better May PMI numbers

EURGBP is off the mat, trading back at 0.8735 from a session low of 0.8715



I have not herd any news or rogue tweets at all, then again it is Sterling



Aaaand Cable slips again
Aaaand Cable slips again
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Unione fiscale entro il 2020 con Eurobond e Tesoro comune


La Commissione Europea al vaglio di tre ipotesi da realizzare entro il 2025 per rilanciare l’idea di Unione Europea dopo gli smacchi della crisi e Brexit.


Gli obiettivi dichiarati: completare l’unione fiscale, attraverso l’emissione di Eurobond e costituzione di un Ministero unico, e l’unione bancaria, predisponendo uno Schema di garanzia dei depositi a livello comunitario

Titoli di debito comuni (seppur senza condivisione dei rischi), Ministero delle finanze unico per l’intera area e successivamente uno Schema comunitario di assicurazione dei depositi.




Il succo delle proposte transitate ieri sui tavoli della Commissione Europea passa per questi tre fondamentali pilastri, contenuti all’interno del documento “di riflessione” redatto dell’esecutivo comunitario per tracciare un nuovo futuro dell’unione economica e fiscale e dunque rispondere in maniera netta alle sfide che incombono da qui al prossimo futuro.


Nel dettaglio, la road-map tracciata dalla Commissione prevede che entro il 2019 venga lanciato un bond sovrano dell’Eurozona però, viene specificato nel documento, “senza condivisione dei rischi”, anche perchè il dibattuto tema della mutualizzazione del debito rimane una fonte inevitabile di preoccupazioni, soprattutto per le nazioni con politiche di bilancio nazionali più solide.


Si passa poi al secondo step, in agenda al 2020 anno a partirà dal quale si contempla la creazione di un Tesoro dell’area euro con a capo un ministro delle Finanze dell’Ue che sarebbe anche il presidente dell’Eurogruppo e dell’Ecofin e che potrebbe far parte della Commissione europea come incaricato dell’Unione economica e monetaria.


Questo pilastro consentirebbe all’Eurozona di evitare i sbilanciamenti ora in essere, dovuti al disallineamento fra politica monetaria comune e differenti politiche fiscali.


Ecco poi entro il 2025, si legge nel documento, che viene prevista la realizzazione di uno Schema europeo di assicurazione sui depositi per “completare anche l’unione bancaria e fare progressi sulla condivisione dei rischi”.



Unione fiscale entro il 2020 con Eurobond e Tesoro comune
Unione fiscale entro il 2020 con Eurobond e Tesoro comune
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European equities in positive territory

A sea of green across the board


FTSE 100 +0.33%



Euro Stoxx +0.48%



CAC40        +0.72%



DAX             +0.47%



IBEX            +0.35%



European equities in positive territory
European equities in positive territory
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Kremlin says Russia supports Paris climate deal

Ahead of Trump decision, Kremlin says Paris deal would be less effective without major participants


Talking about the weather is no longer small talk

Kremlin says Russia supports Paris climate deal
Kremlin says Russia supports Paris climate deal
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Inflazione in ripresa ma la crescita dei salari delude. QE necessario


La prospettiva economica della zona euro sta migliorando ma serve una maggiore produttività, quindi il QE è ancora necessario.

Molto probabilmente non ci saranno grandi sorprese alla prossima riunione della BCE prevista per il giorno 8 Giugno (la quarta del 2017).


Questa settimana il banchiere della BCE, Mario Draghi, nel discorso introduttivo all’audizione al Comitato Affari Economici e Monetari del Parlamento Europeo ha fatto capire che anche se la prospettiva economica della zona euro sta migliorando serve ancora una maggiore produttività e quindi nuove riforme strutturali da parte dei paesi membri.


Non ci sarà, quindi, nessuna modifica relativa alla politica monetaria espansiva della BCE e si continuerà con il QE.


Sempre il banchiere ha fatto notare che servirà un gran supporto alla politica monetaria per poter riassorbire l’attuale livello di risorse non utilizzato.


Tutto ciò serve per risolvere ogni equivoco sulle future scelte da parte della BCE in merito alla politica monetaria, dato che alcuni analisti cominciavano a interrogarsi sulla possibilità di un anticipo della fine del QE(e inizio del Tapering) già a settembre 2017.


Parlando di Inflazione, sempre il presidente, ha dichiarato che è “al di sotto, ma vicina al 2%”, mentre quello che delude maggiormente è la crescita dei salari.


Pertanto si ha bisogno ancora di condizioni economiche molto accomodanti che solo una politica “abbastanza” espansiva può fornire. Sempre in merito all’inflazione, Draghi ha fatto notare che un ritorno a livelli normali(obiettivo della BCE) aumenterà il costo del debito dei paesi membri, penalizzando quelli con un debito maggiore.


Quest’effetto lo si può facilmente comprendere dato che un aumento del costo del denaro porterà all’aumento dei rendimenti delle titoli di stato.


Draghi ha affrontato anche il problema del debito greco dicendo che la BCE farà delle valutazioni “completamente indipendenti” è dovrà dimostrare che tale debito è sostenibile anche in uno scenario avverso.


Solo dopò ciò il debito greco e quello corporate potrebbero entrare nel programma di acquisto titoli.


Per quanto riguarda il rischio di elezioni anticipate in Italia, Draghi ha detto di non aver grandi commenti.


La situazione sui cambi, si sa, è a favore dell’euro già dall’ultimo evento politico di rilievo che ha visto il candidato Macron diventare il nuovo presidente della Francia.


Da allora la moneta unica si è apprezzata di circa il 5% rispetto al dollaro, il 7% rispetto allo yen e circa il 3% rispetto alla sterlina.


Mentre sui mercati c’e’ da riportare una nota degli analisti di Capital Economics che credono che il mercato stia prezzando un “tapering” già nei primi 6 mesi del prossimo anno. Questi credono inoltre che non ci sarà un primo rialzo dei tassi nella seconda metà del 2018 , cosa invece possibile nella prima metà del 2019.


Francesco Silvestri

Vincitore traders’ cup 2016 categoria forex



Inflazione in ripresa ma la crescita dei salari delude. QE necessario
Inflazione in ripresa ma la crescita dei salari delude. QE necessario
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GBP Steady as UK Manufacturing PMI Beats Expectations


Talking Points


- UK manufacturing in May grew at a slower rate than April but nudged ahead of expectations.


- GBP little moved as UK politics, opinion polls hold sway.





- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.


UK manufacturing put up another robust performance in May, following April’s strong showing, giving hope that Q2 GDP may pick-up from the poor 0.2% growth seen in the first quarter of the year. The Markit manufacturing PMI came in at 56.7, beating expectations of 56.5, but down on April’s 3-year high figure of 57.3.


Manufacturing production and new orders both expanded at above survey average rates, while companies benefited most from the continued strength of the domestic market. There was also a solid increase in new export business as well, the data revealed.


Rob Dobson, senior economist at IHS Markit, said, “The strong PMI numbers suggest the manufacturing sector has gained growth momentum in the second quarter after the sluggish start of the year. The ongoing strength of the domestic market remains the main driver of the upturn. Growth of new export business played a lesser role in comparison, with the trend in foreign demand continuing to improve only in fits and starts, despite the assistance of a historically weak sterling exchange rate.”


GBP traded little changed after the release with traders looking at the recent UK voting intention polls with the General election now just one week away. A YouGov poll out Wednesday showed the gap between the two major parties narrowing to just 5%, while others show the ruling Conservative party with a double-digit lead.


Chart: GBPUSD Five Minute Timeframe (June1, 2017)


GBP Steady as UK Manufacturing PMI Beats Expectations

Chart by IG


--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst


To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com


Don"t trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides




GBP Steady as UK Manufacturing PMI Beats Expectations
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FTSE 100 – Turnaround Adds Importance to Line of Resistance


What’s inside:


  • FTSE 100 turns lower after trying to trade above top-side trend-line

  • April trend-line just below as support

  • One side or the other to give-way soon

Find out what’s driving GBP and the FTSE 100 in our market forecasts.


In one of last week’s pieces we were discussing the FTSE 100 and the lines of influence it’s trading between – big support below, minor resistance above. ‘Minor resistance’, though, is becoming increasingly ‘major’ as the market continues to fail around the top-side trend-line extending over from the January high across the March high and over price action since the middle of last month. Resistance does exist even at record highs.





Yesterday, the market tried to push on through, sporting solid gains at one point during the session, but eventually failed to put in a fairly sharp key reversal day. The failure made it the second one of force in the last couple of weeks. Despite treading in record territory there is a technical event which continues to keep an advance from maturing. Should the Wednesday reversal prove to be short-term bearish, there is a trend-line rising up from the low established in April which may help keep the market buoyed, and ultimately pinned up against the top-side trend-line. Given the intersection between the top-side trend-line and rising support something will have to give here soon.


A clean break and close above the top-side trend-line will take what has been a problematic line of resistance and turn it into a source of support, with no other visible levels of resistance ahead. While follow-through on yesterday’s rejection-day leading to a break of rising trend support could weaken the FTSE back towards a major area of support near 7400. The long-term 2013 trend-line passing over the 2015 peak and several minor highs since January and those peaks created as a result will be viewed as rather significant should the market decline.


FTSE 100: Daily


FTSE 100 – Turnaround Adds Importance to Line of Resistance

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst


You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.


You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.



FTSE 100 – Turnaround Adds Importance to Line of Resistance
FTSE 100 – Turnaround Adds Importance to Line of Resistance
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German May  Markit manufacturing PMI 59.50 vs exp 59.40

Slightly better than expected, although the market isn"t getting carried away




Euro 1.1230

German May  Markit manufacturing PMI 59.50 vs exp 59.40
German May  Markit manufacturing PMI 59.50 vs exp 59.40
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Spain May Markit Manufacturing PMI 55.40 vs exp 54.70

A win for Spain first up




Lets see what German and Eurozone PMI"s can deliver later this morning

Spain May Markit Manufacturing PMI 55.40 vs exp 54.70
Spain May Markit Manufacturing PMI 55.40 vs exp 54.70
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Swiss April retail  -1.2% y/y vs +2.1% previous

A fall away in the retail sector, however not a market mover




USDCHF steady at 0.9690



Swiss April retail  -1.2% y/y vs +2.1% previous
Swiss April retail  -1.2% y/y vs +2.1% previous
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US Dollar May Keep Falling on Cooling Fed Rate Hike Bets


Talking Points:


A relatively lackluster offering on the European data docket is likely to see investors focused on US news-flow. The ADP estimate of US jobs growth and the ISM survey of manufacturing – both for the month of May – are set to come across the wires.


The former is predicted to show a180k increase in payrolls, a slight improvement from April’s figures. The latter is expected to reveal that the pace of factory-sector activity growth slowed over the same period, marking the third consecutive month of deterioration.





Soft numbers echoing mostly disappointing US economic data outcomes since mid-March may weigh on Fed rate hike expectations, denting confidence in the Fed’s ability to continue raising rates beyond this month’s widely expected increase. That has scope to weigh on the US Dollar.


The Australian Dollar underperformed in Asian trade, stung by disappointing manufacturing PMI data out of China. The British Pound corrected lower having scored the largest gain in four weeks against its major counterparts in the prior session.


Sterling rose inversely of a drop in UK government bonds after polls from Panelbase and Kantar showed support for the ruling Conservative party rebounding before next week’s general election. The rally stalled after another set of polls, this time from SurveyMonkey and YouGov, painted the opposite picture.


Need help turning your market opinions into a strategy? See our trading guide!


Asia Session


US Dollar May Keep Falling on Cooling Fed Rate Hike Bets

European Session


US Dollar May Keep Falling on Cooling Fed Rate Hike Bets

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


To receive Ilya"s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE


Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak



US Dollar May Keep Falling on Cooling Fed Rate Hike Bets
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Cable orders...or whats left of them

Poll based destruction has all but cleaned out the orders, however I have scrounged up a few to keep things interesting


Topside



1.2970-7



1.2935-40



Downside



1.2805-10



1.2770-75







Cable orders...or whats left of them
Cable orders...or whats left of them
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Asian Stocks Mixed, China PMI Contraction Casts Cloud


Talking Points:



  • Asian stocks were mixed with a surprise fall in a Chinese manufacturing gauge weighing on many

  • The Nikkei managed gains, however, as business capex pleased investors

  • But the Australian Dollar was clobbered by those Chinese numbers





Give your Asian Market trading strategy a tune-up with the DailyFX guide


There were more mixed fortunes for Asia/Pacific stocks Thursday although many bourses took a knock from some disappointing economic news out of China. The Caixin survey of smaller, private firms in the world’s second largest economy notched up its first contraction for twelve months in May. Modest expansion had been expected.


The rest of the day’s Asia/Pacific economic data were something of a roller coaster. Australian retail sales soared above forecasts, but Japanese capital spending numbers dented the Yen with a much more modest beat- speaking to prospects for improved global demand rather than any improvement in Japanese consumption.


The Nikkei 225 ended the session up 1.1% after those strong capex data, but mainland Chinese stocks unsurprisingly fell. Australia’s ASX was steady into the close, up 0.2%..


The Australian Dollar was the major currency casualty of that disappointing China data. The Aussie often acts as the markets’ liquid China-trade proxy and lost about 0.5% against the US Dollar. China’s Yuan rallied again adding to gains made on Wednesday, reportedly on investor views that its home central bank is now less inclined to let it weaken against the US Dollar.The greenback edged up but endured a torpid session overall


Gold prices held steady, having hit five-week highs the session before, although the perceived prospect of higher US interest rates this months was reportedly capping gains. Crude oil prices got a lift on news that the US could pull out of the Paris global climate change accord and after data showed that US stockpiles had fallen by more than expected. Both the US benchmark and international Brent added about 40 cents/barrel.


Italian Gross Domestic Product Data and the UK manufacturing PMI. From the US will come the employment snapshot from Automated Data Processing, weekly jobless-claim numbers and the manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management. More news of US oil-inventory levels are also coming, as is Canada’s manufacturing PMI.


--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research


Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX



Asian Stocks Mixed, China PMI Contraction Casts Cloud
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While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves


Talking Points:


  • Speculative positioning from both the retail spot and futures crowd shows extreme and change

  • The CFTC’s COT figures have shown a dramatic reversal in Treasury and Russell 2000 exposure

  • FX shows a steady decline in Dollar interest while VIX and Oil positioning holds near extremes

See how retail traders are positioning in the FX majors, indices, gold and oil in intraday using the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page.


Markets have essentially ground to a halt and complacency reigns looking at the indecision from the likes of global equity indexes, the Dollar and other benchmarks. But the speculative positioning behind them is anything but stoic. Conviction can sometimes be difficult to muster amid a divergence in expectations; but when there remains a greater degree of exposure and/or a heavy change in bearing behind a market, the potential of a strong price-development remains exceptionally high.





Looking at the speculative positioning development figures, we have seen some extreme build over the months, but some of those levels and changes have hit particularly remarkable pace/degrees recently. We look at a few of the highlights and their possible implications for the broader financial system.


The Market’s Haven Versus Its Standard Return Vehicle


In the traditional, hypothetical portfolio, there is a ratio of stocks to bonds that is optimized for risk and return. Those conventions have waned with time and the opening of the financial system. Recently, the convention has been fully turned on its head with complacency on the rise and the availability of meaningful yield all but vanishing.


For Treasuries – the consummate safe haven – the rise of QE led to an unorthodox flip in motivation that transitioned into a speculative outlet for those looking to front run the central bank’s efforts. As the Fed has started to back out of its easy police with hikes and the early suggestion of stimulus wind down, we have witnessed a record breaking swing in net short exposure to an equivalent net short (flipped below to reflect yields).


While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves

Equities in contrast have remained a favorite outlet for those looking for outright capital gains. No other benchmark has outperformed the S&P 500 for example amongst the major risk-oriented assets since the bottom was set after the Great Financial Crisis. Optimism surged this past six months particularly for the Russell 2000, but that appetite has completely reversed course as complacency has persisted.


While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves

A Growing Anti-Dollar Sentiment


One of the more broadly set developments behind speculative futures exposure has been a slide in interest for the US Dollar. This has not shown through particularly clearly with the net majors’ reposition as well as the DXY speculative futures interest(though that lacks the liquidity of some of the more active crosses).


While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves

From the world’s most liquid exchange rate and one of the most active futures markets, EUR/USD positioning has deviated aggressively since the early 2015 low. With an intensification of correlation between market activity and position, we have seen net speculative interest turn to its most aggressive net long position since late 2013.


While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves

Another of the majors, GBP/USD has seen some relief from its three decade low dredge over the past six months. While the rebound has been noteworthy, it has barely registered compared to the Brexit tumble and more robust moves for other pairs. Despite the measured price base move, the balance of exposure has quickly eased up, dropping to a fifth of the net short set at the beginning of the year.


While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves

Arguably the most remarkable extreme amongst the majors comes from a pair that isn’t considered a top Dollar-based pairing. USD/CAD has posted a bearish swing within a rising bull trend recently, but that correction didn’t register with net speculative futures exposure. This past week, the net short USD/CAD position hit a record (flipped in the image below) that easily overshot the general extremes tested over the past there years.


While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves

Speculative Favorites Show the Boundaries are Being Pushed


Oil remains one of the most heavily traded futures market out there. Over a longer horizon, the long exposure for the pair is still extreme on a historical basis. That said, the past few months have seen a substantial correction. With ranges holding strong for the underlying market, it is likely that the one track view will start to retreat.


While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves

Volatility has shifted from measure in underlying markets to an actively traded market. Net open interest on all VIX futures market contracts have dropped back from a record net short this past week. It is still extreme n on the bears’ side. Net exposure to the asset has hit a fresh high on its own. It will be difficult to motivate an anti volatility trade however given the already fully deflated state of the VIX and other proxy measures.


While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves

In the graph below, we see the weekly changes in net exposure quiet explicitly, but it is also a remarkable inactivity from the underlying indies. In another few weeks, the net short-appetite among VIX traders took a significant divots in market performance. Keep an eye on this speculative anomoly.


While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves

While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves
While Markets Hunker Down, Speculative Position Makes Extreme Moves
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Gold Prices May Extend Gains on Soft ADP, ISM Data


Talking Points:


  • Gold prices rise as US Dollar, Treasury bond yields decline

  • Soft ADP, ISM data may undermine Fed rate hike speculation

  • Crude oil prices may stall absent shock outcome on EIA data

Gold prices edged higher as the US Dollar declined alongside Treasury bond yields, boosting the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets including the yellow metal. The move seems to reflect a cooling rate hike outlook. Fed funds futures now price in an 85.5 percent probability of a hike when the FOMC meets in mid-June, down from 90.6 percent at the start of the week.


From here, the spotlight turns to the ADP estimate of US jobs growth and the ISM survey of manufacturing. The former is expected to reveal a 180k payrolls gain, marking a slight improvement from the prior month. The latter is predicted to show the pace of factory-sector activity growth slowed over the same period, marking the third consecutive month of deterioration.





US economic data has mostly disappointed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-March, hinting that analysts’ models may be overestimating the economy’s vigor. That opens the door for still more downside surprises. Such results may amplify skepticism about the Fed’s wherewithal to continue stimulus withdrawal, if not in June then in the months thereafter. Gold is likely to extend gains in such a scenario.


Crude oil prices dipped to a two-week low intraday but a late-day recovery trimmed losses after API reported that US inventories shed 8.67 million barrels last week. That is well in excess of the 2.67 million barrel draw expected to be reported when official EIA figures cross the wires today. Earlier losses were attributed to news that Libya – except from the OPEC output cut deal – is pumping at the fastest pace since 2014.


From here, only a sharp downside deviation the API print seems likely to imbue EIA inventory figures with significant market-moving potential. If the government’s data points to a far smaller outflow than the market consensus or even a build, that ought to get traders’ attention. Otherwise, a period of digestion may be in the cards until another eye-catching catalyst emerges.


Retail traders expect gold to rise. Find out here what that hints about on-coming price moves!


GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices turned higher anew following a retest of resistance-turned-support in the 1256.74-63.87 area. From here, a daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1280.35 targets the 50% level at 1300.73. Alternatively, a drop below 1256.74 paves the way for a retest of 1241.20.


Gold Prices May Extend Gains on Soft ADP, ISM Data

Chart created using TradingView



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Crude oil prices dropped to retest the May 26 low at 48.16. A daily close below this barrier exposes the 46.47-47.12 area. Alternatively, a push above resistance marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 50.09 targetsthe 38.2% level at 51.28.


Gold Prices May Extend Gains on Soft ADP, ISM Data

Chart created using TradingView


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


To receive Ilya"s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE


Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak



Gold Prices May Extend Gains on Soft ADP, ISM Data
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Moody's: Australian banks asset quality remains strong, but ...

Reuters with the main points from Moody"s latest Australian banking sector monitors


  • Funding profiles, capitalization of Australian banks improved in six months to March 2017, but that asset quality deteriorated moderately

  • Asset quality remains strong, but residential mortgage problem loan ratios deteriorated modestly due to exposures to resources-focused regions

  • Australian bank creditworthiness retains heightened sensitivity to economic deterioration, due to banking sector"s heavy focus on residential mortgage lending

  • Expects the impact of announced regulatory housing market cooling measures in Australia may take some time to be felt fully

  • With regards to capital, the major banks" in Australia maintained an improving trend     

-

Hai Moody"s!

FYI China PMI fell today so we don"t care about nothin" else.

;-)





Moody"s: Australian banks asset quality remains strong, but ...
Moody"s: Australian banks asset quality remains strong, but ...
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ForexLive Asia FX news: AUD the biggest loser

Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 1 June 2017


The Australian dollar was a big mover today, but I"ll come to that.


New Zealand terms of trade and Australian manufacturing PMI kicked the session off, but with little currency impact beyond minor wiggles. Yen moves were more notable then, with USD/JPY moving above 111 in the Tokyo morning. We got better than expected capex data for Q1 out of Japan, which argued for a more positive yen, but this wasn"t to be as it lost a little ground. A contributing factor to yen weakness may have been the international securities flows data for Japan, which confirmed a fifth successive week of Japanese buying of foreign bonds. USD/JPY has not managed to sustain above 111 and it soon calmed for a small range on the session.


EURJPY gained too, with EUR/USD confined to a very small range only, USD/CHF also with only small movement. Even cable, which has been active as we move towards the June 8 election was mostly subdued.


The next news to hit was a huge revaluation of the CNY against the USD from the People"s Bank of China today, USD/CNY was set (reference rate) at its lowest since early November of 2016.


There are various potential factors for the PBOC moving the yuan higher, a response to Moody"s downgrade of the country last week (the PBOC/government supporting equities, bonds and currencies in its wake). Another reason for the Bank supporting the yuan directly is with evidence showing growth is slowing (I"ll get to today"s piece of significant data in just a moment), the pressure will be on the PBOC not to push too hard with their tightening policies (which is yuan supportive to the extent it keeps the interest rate spread to the US wide even as the Fed moves towards further hikes).


And, as I update, its not just the yuan on the move, overnight offshore yuan lending rates are moving, surging, higher again in Hong Kong today. The overnight rate reported above 42%, one-week above 19%.


Next up was Australian data - April retail sales (a solid beat, see bullets above) and the not as bad as it could have been Q1 capex data (it wasn"t great, just not too terrible). The Australian dollar moved higher in the wake of the data .The strength lasted 15 minutes, until the Caixin China manufacturing PMI hit..


And hit it did. The private-survey manufacturing PMI: Caixin / Markit Manufacturing PMI for May came in showing contraction (for the first time in 11 months). Yesterday we got the official PMIs from China, which held up well, despite other private data showing growth slipping in May - see here: Early economic data for May from China shows cooling growth. I was wary of the official data yesterday and mentioned the market would be watching for confirmation (or not) from the private survey. Well, it was "or not"


The response expressed in the Australian dollar was swift and very harsh. The Australian dollar was hit lower immediately and has barely recovered from its session low as I update. It was a nice example of the market doings its "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" thing. And also how a trading vehicle behaves when its in a downward trend.



NZD is lower in the day also, but not as much as the Australian dollar. Gold is little changed.


Late NY oil inventory data say a much bigger draw than expected, helping oil to op, and it remained near its high through the day.


Regional equities:


  • Nikkei +1.10%

  • Shanghai -0.51%

  • HK +0.28%

  • ASX +0.04%

Still to come: President Donald Trump will announce his decision on the Paris climate accord Thursday afternoon US time


ForexLive Asia FX news: AUD the biggest loser
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Analyst responses to Australian data coming in - Q1 capex

Westpac comments on the March quarter capex data from Australia earlier


(in brief, bolding is mine)



By asset:

  • Equipment -0.1%, a downside surprise (Westpac 1.2%)

  • Building & structures 0.7%, close to the 1.2% rise reported by the Construction Work survey... a greater than anticipated disruption to home building work in Qld and NSW from storms and wet weather.  

By industry:

  • mining 0.4%;

  • services -0.5%;

  • and manufacturing 6.6%

While there was a small increase in capex spending in Q1, we would describe this as a mixed result.

  • Disappointments are the fall in capex by the service sectors and the broadly flat result for equipment.

  • Having said that, the Q1 outcome is an improvement on recent quarters

Implications for Q2 GDP growth forecast

  • We have lowered our forecast for Q2 GDP growth to 0.4%qtr, 1.7%yr, downgraded from 0.6%qtr previously

Comments

  • The mining investment downturn, which is nearing its end, continues to dominate.

  • The outlook for investment by the service sectors remains uncertain.

  • Policy makers can take some comfort from the fact that service sector investment intentions are moving in the right direction, upgraded to +1.5% from -3% 3 months ago (base on average RR calculations). 



Analyst responses to Australian data coming in - Q1 capex
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Goldman Sachs sees AUD/USD falling to high 60s

Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Philip Moffitt, Asia-Pacific head of fixed income


This is via Bloomberg

  • Sees AUD to around the "high 60s" level against the USD

  • Australia loses its yield advantage ... to disappear by mid-2018

  • Fed to keep tightening, while the RBA remains on hold

  • "One of the reasons why people buy Aussie dollars is it has been a relatively high yielder. That"s changing. More exposure to China, no rate movement here and rate convergence with the U.S. suggest the Aussie will go lower"

  • "It"s quite likely that in 12 months Aussie short rates and U.S. short rates could be basically the same level as the Fed tightens and the RBA does nothing"

--

I posted on this sort of indicator earlier this week:  When AUD/USD was at 0.5020 this indicator was where it is now





Goldman Sachs sees AUD/USD falling to high 60s
Goldman Sachs sees AUD/USD falling to high 60s
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