ForexLive Asia FX news: Its Tuesday already, are we there yet?

Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 8 November 2016

• Here"s a quickie from UBS on the FX impacts from the US election outcome


• China October vehicle sales +20% y/y says the CPCA


• "The yen is looking like a long-term winner after the U.S. presidential vote"


• OIL: Iran plans to sign a $6bn deal with France’s Total to help develop an offshore gas field


• China trade data - China imported lowest volume of iron ore since February


• China October trade balance: CNY +325.25bn (expected CNY366.61bn, prior CNY278.35bn)


• US election is over. My (inadvertent) poll says Trump to win in a landslide!


• Platts on the US election, oil and the USD (And, they don"t like GBP very much :-D)


• PBOC sets yuan reference rate for today at 6.7817 (vs. yesterday at 6.7725)


• Goldman Sachs forecasts for gold price


• Australia - NAB Business Conditions: 6 (prior 8) and Confidence 4 (prior 6)


• Is the US Election really Brexit 2.0? Similarities and differences.


• UK data - BRC sales like-for-like for October: +1.7% y/y (expected +0.6%, prior 0.4%)


• JPMorgan says Yellen to serve full term as Chair regardless of who wins election


• Overnight: Templeton says Australia is due for two more rate cuts


• Australia data - ANZ consumer confidence 117.8 (prior 114.1)


• NAB says "USD/JPY is at a cross road"


• Japan press: "Some possible short-term chaos after the American presidential election"


• Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 8 November 2016


• Overnight - China FX Reserves data ... to their lowest since 2011


• NZ data - ANZ "Truckometer" for October: -0.2% m/m (prior -1.4%)

Minor FX moves only today ahead of the US election today (US time). We did get some significant data, though. Well, they would have been more significant without such a huge event on the horizon.

Weekly consumer confidence from Australia is not normally much of a focus, but today it rose to a 5-week high even with the US election imminent. Counteracting this development, though the more noticed NAB Business Survey for October showed a weaker outcome again.  Business conditions and business confidence remain above longer-term averages, but still they both declined for the month. NAB describe confidence as "easing" but tracking "broadly sideways" while conditions are "showing a downward trend" (you can see this here):

AUD/USD had been softening ahead of the data, and this gentle slide continued.

The next focus was Chinese trade balance data (October). China can get its GDP data out within about four and half seconds of the quarter ending (or something like that) but today"s trade data came out much later than we normally get it, a delay of more than half an hour. Oh well, good things come to those who wait. But not today. The trade surplus was a miss, exports were a miss and imports (have a guess) a miss also. On the positive side, exports bounced a little to have not declined so much as they did in September. So there is that.

AUD/USD continued slipping after the Chinese data, but has since popped itself back above 0.7700. NZD/USD was softer through the session also, following a similar pattern to the AUD, but with a smaller points range.

I should add on the NZD an interesting comment from ANZ on the release of their "Truckometer" (another fall this month)  indicator early in the session. Its not a new point, but it appears to be gaining in importance ... "Given the speed limits being imposed on the New Zealand economy, most obviously in the forms of difficulty finding labour and tightening availability of credit, it would not be at all surprising to see growth moderate over the next six months".

USD/JPY has net lost a few points on the session, but it too has had a limited range 104.55 and thereabouts the high, and down to circa 104.30 at one stage. Its currently more or less mid-range as I update.

EUR/USD is little changed, USD/CHF & cable, ditto.

Regional equities:

• Nikkei -0.03%  


• Shanghai +0.61%


• HK +0.36%


• ASX +0.04%

Still to come:

• If you"re in the US, enjoy voting day!

ForexLive Asia FX news: Its Tuesday already, are we there yet?
ForexLive Asia FX news: Its Tuesday already, are we there yet?
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