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martedì 28 febbraio 2017

Australia house price index for February +1.4% m/m (prior +0.7%)

CoreLogic data


Not a forex mover

Australia house price index for February +1.4% m/m (prior +0.7%)
Australia house price index for February +1.4% m/m (prior +0.7%)
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'Event risk' during the Asian timezone today

There is a lot on the calendar today, Westpac have highlighted the following as the focal points


Australia: Q4 GDP

  • is forecasted to increase 0.9% as the economy rebounds following a contraction of 0.5% in Q3.

  • Partials have been mixed with inventories coming in below expectations and net exports moderate, whereas company profits and public demand surged.

  • This has led to a revised Q4 GDP equated by 0.8% domestic demand, 0.2% net exports, -0.2% inventories and a statistical discrepancy of 0.1% due to the higher GDP income estimate.

China: PMI

  • Feb Caixin and Markit PMI release with the index currently showing a positive trend in services whilst manufacturing has returned to its long run trend.



US: President Trump"s address to a joint sitting of Congress is eagerly awaited by traders and economists (among others)

  • Any detail on fiscal plans and their timing to be closely scrutinised.



"Event risk" during the Asian timezone today
"Event risk" during the Asian timezone today
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Hedge funds are cutting their fees: surveys


By Svea Herbst-Bayliss
| BOSTON

Investors disappointed by hedge funds" poor returns and managers eager to pull in fresh money are seeing eye to eye: the industry"s once-hefty fees are being rolled back.

Two separate global surveys suggest that nearly three-quarters of investors and the same amount of managers have negotiated fee structures that have made the traditional fees a thing of the past. Typically, hedge funds have charged an annual management fee of 2 percent on assets plus a performance fee of 20 percent on gains earned by the funds.

The new surveys gave no figures on how far the cuts have gone. But last year, hedge fund research firm Preqin found that newer funds now charge a 1.5 percent management fee and a 19 percent performance fee.

A survey conducted by information group HFM and Citco Fund Services, which will be released on Wednesday, found that 72 percent of polled managers said they are introducing new fee structures to attract investors at a time when raising new money is increasingly difficult. The two groups surveyed 225 managers in September 2016.



In the United States, home to the bulk of the world"s hedge funds, the number is even higher with 78 percent of polled managers saying they are ready to negotiate on fees, underscoring their willingness to "innovate," the survey said.

"The funds who can adapt their fees, liquidity and other offering terms to what investors want will put themselves in a strong position in 2017 and beyond," said Greg Fenlon, head of alternative investor services at Citco Fund Services.



Similarly, three-quarters of the 350 investors surveyed by Barclays during the fourth quarter of 2016 reported seeing more flexibility on fees from managers. Barclays released its survey this week.

Managers who pick stocks were the most willing to cut fees. Those that lowered their fees the least in the last two years are so-called quant funds, which rely on computer programs to help with trading, along with multi-manager hedge funds and fixed-income relative value funds.



Pension funds were the most successful in pushing for preferential terms, the report found, noting they were able to secure almost double the concessions that their smaller rivals were able to secure. Many managers would agree to cut fees if the investors left their money in longer or gave the managers more money to manage, the survey found.

(Editing by Matthew Lewis)


Hedge funds are cutting their fees: surveys
Hedge funds are cutting their fees: surveys
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
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Volatility, inflation risk are compelling investments in '17: Pimco




FILE PHOTO: A police officer keeps watch in front of the U.S. Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC, U.S., October 12, 2016.

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque



Volatility, inflation risk are compelling investments in "17: Pimco
Volatility, inflation risk are compelling investments in "17: Pimco
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
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Australia - Manufacturing PMI (February): 59.3 (prior 51.2)

Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing Index


An 8.1 point jump in the month

To its highest since May of 2002



Key points from AiG:

  • fifth consecutive month of expansion

  • Six of the seven activity sub-indexes expanded in February (seasonally adjusted)

  • Encouragingly for the outlook, new orders (60.6 points) and sales (55.3 points) grew strongly. Production jumped from stable conditions in January to a strong expansion (65.3 points), as did employment (57.5 points). Deliveries lifted out of contraction (56.3 points) while exports strengthened further (57.0 points). Reflecting this surge in demand, inventories contracted mildly in the month (48.3 points). 

  • Seven of the eight sub-sectors improved in February (trend)

  • Food & beverages posted a strong result (58.8 points), as did non-metallic mineral products (66.3 points) and machinery & equipment (60.1 points), all building on expansions in January. Metal products (56.1 points) and petroleum, coal & chemical products (53.0 points) continued expanding well, while wood & paper products recovered from contraction (51.9 points). Only printing & recorded media remained in the doldrums (45.1 points). 

  • Comments from manufacturers in February indicate that demand looks to be increasing and confidence returning to some of the larger sub-sectors such as food processing and machinery and equipment (other than auto).

  • Exports are continuing to provide a good source of growth, as are large transport infrastructure projects and increased activity in parts of mining and agriculture in response to the recovery in prices for bulk commodities, wool and some grains.

  • On the inputs side, energy costs and energy reliability are posing a significant threat to ongoing profitability and viability for some manufacturers. Rising raw materials costs and supply constraints are causing increased price pressure and delaying some supplies. Also, intense competition is continuing, particularly from overseas firms.



more to come      

-

The big data event in Australia today is Q4 GDP, due at 0030GMT



And even bigger events are afoot! Plenty coming up on calendar today.

Australia - Manufacturing PMI (February): 59.3 (prior 51.2)
Australia - Manufacturing PMI (February): 59.3 (prior 51.2)
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Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 1 March 2017

Welcome to March! 




Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:        

Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 1 March 2017
Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 1 March 2017
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What time does Donald Trump speak to Congress?

Trump will address a joint session of Congress



President Trump is slated to speak at 9pm ET, but these things tend to start a bit late. That"s 0200 GMT in London, 11 am in Tokyo and 1 pm in Sydney.


Expect him to speak for at least 90 minutes with non-stop interruptions for standing ovations.


More reading:


What time does Donald Trump speak to Congress?
What time does Donald Trump speak to Congress?
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NZ data: Q4 Terms of Trade +5.7% q/q (expected +4.0%)

New Zealand terms of trade for Q4 of 2016




  • expected 4.0%, prior revised to -1.1% from -1.7%

 More:

  • export volumes fell 5.8% on the quarter

  • import volumes up 1.2% q/q

Via Stats NZ:

  • A rise in milk powder prices and a fall in prices of consumer electronics helped drive the terms of trade up 5.7 percent

  • The lift in the terms of trade in the December 2016 quarter was the largest quarterly increase since the September 2013 quarter

  • ."The uptick of dairy export prices lifted New Zealand"s terms of trade," business prices manager Sarah Williams said today. "However, dairy export prices are still about a third lower than they were three years ago."

  • While dairy export prices (up 14 percent) and values (up 9.8 percent) rose in the December 2016 quarter, dairy export volumes were down 8.1 percent. Despite the fall in volumes, New Zealand has earned more from the sale of dairy products abroad compared with the September 2016 quarter.



NZ data: Q4 Terms of Trade +5.7% q/q (expected +4.0%)
NZ data: Q4 Terms of Trade +5.7% q/q (expected +4.0%)
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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Dudley hints at hike

Forex news for US trading on February 28, 2017


Markets:


  • Gold down $4 to $1248

  • WTI crude down 14-cents to $53.91

  • S&P 500 down 6 points to 2363

  • US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 2.39%

  • CHF leads, CAD lags

  • On month, AUD leads, EUR lags

The US dollar got beat up early despite great numbers on consumer confidence but the dollar stormed back after London went him and continued the surge late after Dudley said the case for hiking now had become a lot more compelling.


USD/JPY tried support at 118.80 early and has rebounded more than a cent.


The euro had been up to 1.0630 but sank down to 1.0590 late. It"s the same story right across the board as the dollar catches a big bid late.


USD/CAD was strong all day ahead of the Bank of Canada decision. The pair is salted to finish 120 pips higher to 1.3300.


There are plenty of cross-currents with Trump to speak, month-end and the Fed in play. Ultimately, talk of a rate hike is something that will last.



ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Dudley hints at hike
ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Dudley hints at hike
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Economic data due from Asia today, BOJ & Fed speakers, and trump speech

Plenty coming up on calendar today. And, ladies and gentlemen, stay tuned to FXL for a HUGE Bank of Canada preview coming up in around 20 minutes


2145GMT - New Zealand terms of trade for Q4 ... came in at +5.7% q/q



2230GMT - Australia - Manufacturing PMI

  • Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing Index

  • For February

  • prior 51.2

2300GMT - Australia - CoreLogic House Prices for February



2340GMT - Fed"s James Bullard speaking

2350GMT - Japan - capex for Q4 + more

  • Capital Spending y/y for Q4, expected is +0.8%, prior was -1.3%

  • Capital Spending excluding software y/y for Q4, expected is +1.1%, prior was -1.4%

  • Company profits for Q4, prior was +11.5%

  • Company sales for Q4, prior was -1.5%

0001GMT - UK data, BRC Shop Price Index for February


  • expected -1.4% y/y, prior -1.7%

0030GMT - Australia - GDP for Q4

0030GMT - Japan - Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for February (final)

  • preliminary 53.5

  • prior 52.7

0100GMT - China manufacturing PMI (official) for February, 

  • expected 51.2, prior 51.3

  • & Non-manufacturing, prior 54.6

0130GMT - Bank of Japan policy board member Sato speaks



0145GMT - China Caixin (this is the private survey) Manufacturing PMI for February

  • expected 50.8, prior 51.0

0200GMT - US President Trump addresses Congress (more here)



Economic data due from Asia today, BOJ & Fed speakers, and trump speech
Economic data due from Asia today, BOJ & Fed speakers, and trump speech
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USD/JPY Still at Support but Needs to Establish above 112.60 to Work


Daily


USD/JPY Still at Support but Needs to Establish above 112.60 to Work

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT


DailyFX Trading Guides and Forecasts





-I’m still watching for a higher low (above 111.58) in USD/JPY as per the comments regarding RSI. Establishing above 112.60 would be viewed as constructive. “The turn higher is viewed as sustainable for several reasons. First, price turned up from a well-defined price level. Second, daily RSI turned up from near 40, which is consistent with either bullish resumption of the bottom of a range. In contrast, bear market rallies turn up from deeply oversold conditions and are quickly retraced.”



USD/JPY Still at Support but Needs to Establish above 112.60 to Work
USD/JPY Still at Support but Needs to Establish above 112.60 to Work
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US Dollar Index is Dazed and Confused


Daily


US Dollar Index is Dazed and Confused

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT


DailyFX Trading Guides and Forecasts





-DXY continues to trade on parallels that are defined by the 2016 support line (from the May low). There is talk of a possible head and shoulders top, which would confirm on a drop under the February low. Even then, trendline support would register near 98.00 with the 200 day average. 99.80 should still be watched for support in the interim.



US Dollar Index is Dazed and Confused
US Dollar Index is Dazed and Confused
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Crude Oil Frustrates Both Sides; Watch 52.37


Daily


Crude Oil Frustrates Both Sides; Watch 52.37

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT


DailyFX Trading Guides and Forecasts





-Crude is trying to break out but watch for support near 52.37 if it pulls back within the range again. The extreme COT readings continue to cast doubt on the staying power of strength though. “Crude is coiled…really tight. Bollinger band width is the smallest since July 2002! Historically extreme readings tend to register before strong directional moves. The market may be set up to rally from a triangle in which case risk is high that a new high proves terminal (end of a move rather than beginning).”



Crude Oil Frustrates Both Sides; Watch 52.37
Crude Oil Frustrates Both Sides; Watch 52.37
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USD/CHF Key Levels are .9960 and 1.0205/20


Daily


USD/CHF Key Levels are .9960 and 1.0205/20

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT


DailyFX Trading Guides and Forecasts





-Since finding low at the 200 day average and September 2016 high, Swissie has rebounded but March is just around the corner. This is interesting because USD/CHF has topped on 3/11 and 3/10 the last 2 years…at just about the same price! Near term, pay attention to the 1.0020 (now) for support. If USD/CHF is going to stretch into 1.0200 before putting in a top (2 equal legs up at 1.0221), then I’d expect a turn higher now.



USD/CHF Key Levels are .9960 and 1.0205/20
USD/CHF Key Levels are .9960 and 1.0205/20
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USD/CAD Support Works; Trouble in the Low 1.3300s


Daily


USD/CAD Support Works; Trouble in the Low 1.3300s

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT


DailyFX Trading Guides and Forecasts





-“USD/CAD continues to sport lower wicks at support but range is contracting as the latest rally failed right at the high from 2 weeks ago. I still ‘lean’ towards the upside as long as the support line holds.” The support line was good enough for the 2nd best 2 day rally of 2017 (after 1/18 and 1/19). 1.3300ish is former channel support and probably poses problems for bulls though.



USD/CAD Support Works; Trouble in the Low 1.3300s
USD/CAD Support Works; Trouble in the Low 1.3300s
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EUR/USD – Focus on the 20 Day Average for Short Term Bias


Daily


EUR/USD – Focus on the 20 Day Average for Short Term Bias

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT


DailyFX Trading Guides and Forecasts





Traits of Successful Traders


-Very short term, pay attention to the 20 day average near 1.0640 in EUR/USD. This average has been a gauge of trend so far in 2017 (see 1/11, 1/30, and 2/8-2/9). Bugger picture, an important region continues to hold. The region I’m referring to is). As long as 1.0520/30 (December 2015 low and 61.8% retrace of January rally) holds, a constructive view is OK. Weakness below would shift focus to the March 2015 low at 1.0460. Strength above 1.0820 is needed in order to suggest that a medium term bullish move is possible. Between 1.0460 and 1.0820 is trading purgatory. For a big wave count possibility, check out this video.



EUR/USD – Focus on the 20 Day Average for Short Term Bias
EUR/USD – Focus on the 20 Day Average for Short Term Bias
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One thing Trump could say later that would unnerve markets

Trump could target China in Congressional address


One theory is that Trump was waiting for his Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary to be confirmed before going on the attack against China.


Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was confirmed today.


You would expect the contents of the speech to leak but credible reports say it"s not written yet and that could partly be due to hopes for secrecy. One thing that"s leaked today is that Trump might call for compromises on immigration. In the big picture some compromise is good and shows that Trump is working with some kind of previously-unforeseen strategy.


In any case, if he decides to attack China, it could be the commodity currencies that get hit along with yen strength.


[embedded content]


h/t @bradleyjason332 for the tip.


One thing Trump could say later that would unnerve markets
One thing Trump could say later that would unnerve markets
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Ethanol rumours send crude for a ride

White House denies rumor


Earlier today Renewable Fuels Administration leader Bob Dinneen said he"d been told by someone in the administration that an executive order was coming shifting regulations on biofuels/ethanol in a move that would diminish obligations on refiners.


A White House spokesman denied the report and that"s what has given gasoline, and oil by extension, a boost.


"There is no ethanol executive order in the works," White House spokeswoman Kelly Love said.


Dinneen later doubled down saying there is "certainly" something in the works but the White House will keep it quiet until it"s ready.


Ethanol rumours send crude for a ride
Ethanol rumours send crude for a ride
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US dollar finds its legs. What to expect from Trump

Can"t keep the dollar down


The theme of falling USD and yields is unwinding a bit. USD/JPY is 30 pips from its lows at 112.07 after a test of the February low of 111.60 held.


The whole market is trying to handicap the Trump speech but it will be a very difficult one to trade. He will make some "phenomenal" promises and that"s worked in the past to boost equities and the dollar but it"s the kind of tactic that has diminishing returns in the absence of details.


On details, I just can"t believe that Trump is capable of speaking about specific details but that wouldn"t preclude some kind of simultaneous release of something. That said, you would think something would have leaked.


So all I really expect is the same old stump speech from Trump. How will that play in the market? I suppose there will be disappointment if only because the market has run so much already.


US dollar finds its legs. What to expect from Trump
US dollar finds its legs. What to expect from Trump
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Larry Kudlow dangles a carrot ahead of Trump's speech

Something that hasn"t been reported


 Larry Kudlow, on CNBC, reports that Trump"s speech will offer something that hasn"t previously been reported on.


Given that he was speaking to a financial audience, you"d have to assume that"s something for stocks or the economy.


h/t @livesquawk


Larry Kudlow dangles a carrot ahead of Trump"s speech
Larry Kudlow dangles a carrot ahead of Trump"s speech
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Forex Education: All About Trading Ranges


Trading ranges are sideways markets that conform to values of support and resistance. During today’s Technical Trading Tools & Tactics webinar event, we covered how to identify and trade these markets.


One way to identify range bound markets is to first use the ADX trading tool. This indicator is used to measure the strength of the trend, and finding a reading under 20 can help traders find a potential range. An example of this can be seen below, with the current ADX reading for the NZD/USD residing below 20.


NZD/USD Daily Range with ADX


Forex Education: All About Trading Ranges


(Created Using IG Charts)


From here traders can use a variety of techniques to trade the range. The key is to find opportunities to buy the market near support, and sell the market close to resistance.


Lastly, traders should always manage risk. If the market begins to breakout from support or resistance, stop orders may be placed either below or above these values respectively.


Did you miss today’s LIVE webinar event? Don’t worry, you can see a full list of upcoming webinars on our events calendar! Our next Technical Trading Tools & Tactics webinars will be held on Thursday this week!


Looking for more information on trading strategies? Check out Forex for Beginners guide here!


--- Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com


To Receive Walkers’ analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE


See Walker’s most recent articles at hisBio Page.


Contact and Follow Walker on Twitter @WEnglandFX.



Forex Education: All About Trading Ranges
Forex Education: All About Trading Ranges
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Le Piazze Finanziarie attendono Trump “al varco”

Investing.com – Il contratto Future FTSE MIB Future, con scadenza a marzo 2017, chiude la seduta odierna a quota 18.922 punti in guadagno del +0.20%, al momento si collocano in terreno positivo 15 titoli su 38, con un range di variazione che va dal migliore (Banco Bpm (MI:BAMI)) con un guadagno del +2.70%, al peggiore (Exor NV (MI:EXOR) ), che perde il -2.14%.


Analisi:

Dopo una partenza in forte rialzo, subito sgonfiatosi, oggi la quotazione del Future FTSE MIB ha visto un movimento sostanzialmente laterale, con qualche modesta puntata rialzista, velocemente riassorbita da contenuti movimenti ribassisti, un bel nulla di fatto, insomma. Il clima di grande attesa per il primo discorso del presidente Trump ha sconsigliato qualsiasi netta presa di posizione da parte degli operatori, che vogliono verificare l’effettiva volontà dell’inquilino della Casa Bianca di dare seguito alle promesse elettorali. Il mercato certo ripone grandi attese su questo evento, caricandolo, probabilmente, di una importanza molto superiore a quella che in realtà esso ha. Considerata l’alto livello di emotività che, in questo momento, domina il mercato, ci aspetta, probabilmente, un periodo ad alta volatilità. In ogni caso se anche il presidente degli Stati Uniti dovesse confermare appieno le sue intenzioni annunciando, magari, anche qualche concreta iniziativa di spesa, i tempi necessari affinché queste spieghino i loro effetti sull’economia reale, sarebbero piuttosto lunghi ed il percorso realizzativo, certo non privo di ostacoli, visto il clima sociale e politico decisamente a lui ostile, nel quale Trump si ritrova a dover agire. Un atteggiamento forse eccessivamente interventista del Tycoon americano gli ha sino ad ora procurato più di un dispiacere, obbligandolo a muoversi in un clima mai riservato prima ad un presidente neoeletto, nella storia degli Stati Uniti. Questo implica un probabile sovradimensionamento delle aspettative degli operatori. Oggi, tramite il canale Telegram non è stata segnalata alcuna operazione; la scarsa volatilità ha suggerito un momento di attesa. Chi non avesse ancora richiesto l’invio dei segnali settimanali di lungo periodo gratuiti, può farlo mandando “richiedo” al mio indirizzo email personale, reperibile sul mio profilo qui sul sito Investing al seguente indirizzo: http://it.investing.com/members/2919 (copiare e incollare nella barra degli indirizzi del browser). Sintonizzatevi anche per il trading intraday via Telegram, trovate i link sempre sul mio profilo personale. Questi utili e gratuiti servizi sono offerti esclusivamente ai lettori del sito italiano di Investing.com, fatelo conoscere ai vostri amici, invitandoli a visitare e registrarsi sul sito it.investing.com. Buonasera. Francesco Lamanna


Future FTSE MIB, grafico su tf a 15 minuti
Future FTSE MIB, grafico su tf a 15 minuti




Chi gradisce questa analisi di fine giornata che viene qui regolarmente pubblicata, è gentilmente invitato a cliccare sul tasto "segui", manifestando, in tal modo, il suo gradimento.


Storico posizioni & operazioni:

1. Short da 17.960 punti del 23 marzo 2016, chiusa il 5 aprile al target di 16.700 punti (+1260 punti).

2. Short da 17.945 punti del 18 aprile 2016, chiusa il 13 maggio a 17.100 punti (+845 punti)

3. Long da 17.100 punti del 17 maggio 2016, chiusa il 18 maggio a 17.300 punti (+200 punti)

4. Long da 17.700 punti del 9 giugno, chiusa il 10 giugno a 17.350 (-350 punti)

5. Long da 17.450 punti del 10 giugno, chiusa a 17.350 punti il 10 giugno (-100 punti)

6. Short da 17.180 punti del 11 aprile, chiusa a 16.180 il 14 giugno (+1000 punti)

7. Short da 16.790 punti del 17 agosto, chiusa a 16.350 il 19 agosto (+440 punti)

8. Short da 16.270 punti del 27 settembre, chiusa il 28 settembre a 16.260 punti (+10 punti)

9. Short da 16.270 punti del 30 settembre chiusa il 13 ottobre a 16.230 punti (+40 punti)

10. Long da 16.600 punti del 2 novembre, chiusa il 8 novembre a 16.600 punti (0 punti)

11. Short da 16.520 (media) del 9 novembre, chiusa a 16.870 il 10 novembre (-350 punti)

12. Long da 16.300 del 18 novembre, chiusa a 16.230 il 18 novembre (-70 punti)

13. Long da 16.325 del 23 novembre chiuso a 16350 il 28 novembre (+25 punti)

14. Short da 18.135 punti del 7 dicembre


Operazioni di trading in corso: short da 18.135 punti del 7 dicembre (un terzo di posizione)

Operazioni di trading aperte oggi: nessuna

Operazioni di trading chiuse oggi: nessuna

Ordini pendenti in attesa d’esecuzione: Ordine di vendita a livello molto superiore all’attuale (medio medio-lungo periodo); vedi segnali gratuiti Vedaforex®.


Gli indici migliori del FTSE MIB, alle 17.50, oggi sono:

FTSE Italia Beni Immobili (+4.18%)

FTSE Italia Energia (+1.28%)

FTSE Italia Salute (+1.01%)


Gli indici peggiori invece sono:


FTSE Italia Materie Prime (-1.52%)

FTSE Italia Chimica e Materie Prime (-1.51%)

FTSE Italia Alimentari (-1.47%)


La sessione odierna ha visto scambiare sino alle ore 17.40, n° 811.952.911 azioni per un controvalore pari a 2.733.703.237 Euro; i contratti conclusi sono stati 241.117 e le azioni in negoziazione sono state 354, delle quali 189 hanno chiuso in rialzo e 151 in ribasso; 14 sono quelle rimaste invariate.


I titoli oggi più scambiati in capitale sono stati:

Unicredit (MI:CRDI) :

Volume di scambio di 35M di titoli, per un controvalore di 443M di euro

Eni (MI:ENI) :

Volume di scambio di 21.2M di titoli, per un controvalore di 308M di euro

Intesa (MI:ISP) :

Volume di scambio di 129M di titoli, per un controvalore di 284M di euro


I titoli migliori sull"indice milanese sono in chiusura:

Banco BPM (MI:PMII) quotato 2.356 (+2.70%)

Saipem (MI:SPMI) quotato 0.4311 (+2.33%)

UniCredit SpA (MI:CRDI) quotato 12.65 (+1.52%)


Fra i peggiori troviamo oggi:

Exor NV (MI:EXOR) quotato 44.73 (-2.14%)

Campari (MI:CPRI) quotato 9.550 (-2.10%)

Yoox (MI:YNAP) quotato 22.48 (-1.71%)


Positive, le altre maggiori piazze europee con gli Indici di: Amsterdam AEX che aumenta del +0.11%, Parigi CAC 40 che chiude in aumento al +0.28%, Francoforte DAX, che sale del +0.10%, Londra FTSE 100 che aumenta del +0.14%, Madrid IBEX positiva del +0.96% e Zurigo SMI in guadagno del +0.30%.


Su base giornaliera, oggi il cross EUR/USD, ha assunto un andamento rialzista (+0.20% al momento della scrittura), il cambio ha raggiunto un massimo a 1.0630 ed un minimo a 1.0569; la coppia scambia ora a 1.0605.



Le Piazze Finanziarie attendono Trump “al varco”
Le Piazze Finanziarie attendono Trump “al varco”
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Last bout of USD strength 'now or fairly soon' - CIBC

From CIBC:


The US dollar"s initial Trump bump has largely been sustained, but the President"s first month in office hasn"t seen any further gains on that front.


Attention has now shifted back to the central bank to give the greenback another boost, and while, on balance, Fed policymakers look like they have enough evidence to hike rates in March, the market is only assigning a 1 in 3 chance that they move at that meeting. Even if the Fed ends up passing on March, markets need to realize that another rate hike is coming soon, and that will push the US dollar stronger versus a variety of other currencies.


Risks also appear to be tilted to the upside, with the Trump administration still considering protectionist policies which could ultimately give greenback strength additional fuel. While administration officials have stated that they would like to see a weaker currency, actions speak louder than words, and trade policies remain a wild card. But as long as policymakers take a measured approach on that front, which is our base-case expectation, the US dollar is likely to begin losing ground in the second half of the year. That"s when large-scale monetary stimulus could start being pulled back in other places like Japan and the Eurozone.



At the same time, the current account surpluses of those jurisdictions will begin to be seen in starker contrast to the large deficit in the US, adding another layer of pressure to the US currency.


So whether it happens within the next month, or fairly soon thereafter, the US dollar has one more bout of strength left in it before it starts a longer-term slide against a number of other majors.


For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus.




Last bout of USD strength "now or fairly soon" - CIBC
Last bout of USD strength "now or fairly soon" - CIBC
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OPEC members achieve 94% of pledged reduction in Feb output - survey

Reuters survey on compliance


  • Members who were subject to cuts delivered 94% of reductions compared to 82% in January

  • Total OPEC output down 30K bpd in February to 32.19m bpd.

  • Higher Iranian and Nigerian output partly offset Saudi-led cuts

The OPEC survey is very credible. This is good news for oil but OPEC compliance is balanced by rising North American supply.


An earlier report said Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies were hoping for $60 oil.


OPEC members achieve 94% of pledged reduction in Feb output - survey
OPEC members achieve 94% of pledged reduction in Feb output - survey
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Sturgeon: New independence vote looks more like a necessity

Scotland"s Sturgeon:


  • New independence vote may be the only way for Scotland

  • Attacks May for lack of compromise on Brexit

The only way for compromise is if the UK softens its stance on Brexit, Sturgeon said.


"Proposing a further decision on independence wouldn"t simply be legitimate, it would almost be a necessary way of giving the people of Scotland a say in our own future direction," she said. "In the absence of compromise from the U.K. government, it may offer the only way in which our voice can be heard, our interests protected."


Reports on the weekend about Scotland announcing another referendum in March pushed the pound down at the weekly open. Cable is nearing a session low of 1.2400 at the moment but these headlines don"t seem to be weighing.


Sturgeon: New independence vote looks more like a necessity
Sturgeon: New independence vote looks more like a necessity
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Forex Education: Trading Elliott Wave Triangle Patterns


In this webinar recording, we assessed a popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave Theory called the triangle.


We looked at idealized shapes of the patterns, rules and guidelines in how the patterns form. We also discussed what pattern could be evolving if one of the rules are broken.


At the end, we covered how to time trades when you think you have found the pattern.





We will continue the educational video series next week on Tuesday.


See how Elliott Wave Theory is applied in the current environment in the main markets. Join Jeremy in the US Opening Bell webinar on Mondays.


If you cannot make the live webinars, but wish to learn more about Elliott Wave theory, grab our beginning and advanced Elliott Wave guides.


---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX EDU


Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .


See Jeremy’s recent articles at his Bio Page.


To receive additional articles from Jeremy via email, join Jeremy’s distribution list.



Forex Education: Trading Elliott Wave Triangle Patterns
Forex Education: Trading Elliott Wave Triangle Patterns
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Retail Buyers Load In Before Trump Speech


Talking Points:


JPY strength continues into the close of February and in anticipation of President Trump’s speech that will be analyzed for details on the timing of stimulus that could revive the reflation trade. There is a strong positive correlation to yields of US Treasuries and USD/JPY and a clear message from President Trump that inflationary inducing policies are on their way would likely help boost USD/JPY. Lack of details could keep the market on its current course of giving back-post election gains, most notably in JPY crosses. An additional fundamental note worth considering is that March is the last month of the Japanese Fiscal Year, which may lead to further JPY demand in the coming weeks from Japanese accounts that could push USD/JPY lower.


As of Tuesday, the Japanese Yen is the strongest currency in G8 FX on a relative basis, when analyzed on an H4-chart against a 200-DMA. From a momentum perspective, it’s difficult to tell when the momentum will stall. Traders who track momentum can look to RSI(5) on the Daily Chart to see if a higher low in RSI(5) aligns with the chart support of the Ichimoku Cloud and Andrew’s Pitchfork drawn from the closing low of last Summer. The 100-DMA also aligns with the Ichimoku Cloud base at 111.74.





Lastly, traders who utilize sentiment via SSI in their analysis should note there has been a large surge in long orders in USD/JPY. SSI is currently +2.7344 on USD/JPY as 73% of retail traders are currently long. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long provides asignal that the USDJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown more net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish bias.


Interested in Joining Our Analysts, Instructors, or Strategists For a Free Webinar? Register Here


The chart shows the momentum in 2017 has been Bearish. Momentum is famous for pushing past the point of expectation so Trader’s may want to think twice or reduce counter-trend trade size on USD/JPY.


Trader’s looking for a breakout will likely focus on the February high of 114.95 to validate that the Bull trend from Q42016 is resuming. Selling the strongest currency, which the JPY currently is, is ill-advised due to the momentum component and the lack of subsequent sustainable USD strength.


The US Dollar has stabilizedrecently, thanks in part to the re-emergence of geopolitical risk in Europe with upcoming elections that have subsequently kept EUR near the bottom of the relative strength rankings in G8FX.


Tonight’s speech from President Trump could breathe new life into the Bulls that seem to have taken 2017 off so far. If we get a breakout higher in USD pairs in favor of USD, we should keep an eye on an aggressive shift in positions or add to early reversal bets. Such a move could make March an exciting month for trading. Without such a reversal, we’ll anticipate further low volatility and USD-weakness.


D1 USD/JPY Chart: USD/JPY Trading Into Bullish Channel & Ichimoku Cloud Support


USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Retail Buyers Load In Before Trump Speech

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT


---


Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: February 28, 2017


For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.


USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Retail Buyers Load In Before Trump Speech

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell



USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Retail Buyers Load In Before Trump Speech
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Retail Buyers Load In Before Trump Speech
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S&P 500: rischio debolezza in aumento nel breve



In un post di qualche settimana fa, si era prospettato il raggiungimento di area 2400 per il principale indice Usa; analisi basata esclusivamente sulla estensione possibile dopo la rottura rialzista di una figura tecnica rettangolare su base settimanale.


Ieri l"indice ha raggiunto i 2370 punti, in rapido avvicinamento al possibile target e senza fornire alcun segnale di debolezza, neppure sui grafici orari; un rialzo molto rapido, che sta probabilmente prendendo di sorpresa molti analisti.


Qui di seguito una tabella che mostra le stime di fine anno 2017 per l"indice in questione, da parte di numerosi istituti finanziari.


Di fatto l"indice ha già praticamente raggiunto gran parte delle stime, dopo neanche 2 mesi dell"anno. Naturalmente l"anno è ancora lungo, ma quantomeno la convergenza dei valori (2300/2450) dimostra si ottimismo, ma sul versante cauto piuttosto che euforico.


CropperCapture[1]
CropperCapture[1]


Ma al di la di questo genere di stime, che generalmente (e comprensibilmente) sono poco più di una estrapolazione della storia passata, c"è un aspetto tecnico che dovrebbe mettere in guardia da acquisti su questo indice in questa fase. In qualunque trend rialzista (anche fortissimo come l"attuale), le medie mobili tendono ad agire come una calamita per i prezzi. E a questo genere di distanza (circa l"8% dalla media mobile a 200 periodo sul giornaliero) un qualche ritracciamento sembra essere la norma. Data la forza dei prezzi comunque, credo che un eventuale ritracciamento non dovrebbe superare il 3-4% di estensione, almeno in prima battuta. E nel frattempo la media mobile si avvicinerà comunque ai prezzi, rendendo di nuovo le valutazioni più attraenti.


medie mobili
medie mobili


Analisi S&P 500 settimanale




Se guardiamo al nostro usuale scenario settimanale, la media a 21 periodi (sorella minore della media a 200 giorni sul giornaliero) potrebbe incrociare i prezzi in area 2250/2280.


Area che si configura come il supporto principale in caso di possibili indietreggiamenti dell"indice.


Livelli dai quali una entrata sull"indice sarebbe decisamente meno rischiosa, dato anche l"eccesso di ipercomprato sugli oscillatori.


Con quali prospettive difficile dire: ma se due mesi fa ero piuttosto fiducioso di un raggiungimento di 2400 punti (praticamente fatto), oggi non mi sconvolgerebbe una estensione fino in area 2500 punti da qui ad aprile-maggio.


Una cifra tonda che trascinerebbe molti emergenti ed il Dax a possibili ritocchi dei precedenti massimi storici.




analisi grafica sp 500
analisi grafica sp 500


Riccardo Zarfati

onehourtrading



S&P 500: rischio debolezza in aumento nel breve
S&P 500: rischio debolezza in aumento nel breve
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USD/JPY hits fresh session low as stocks take a leg down

Risk aversion is picking up


The old risk trade is on today with USD/JPY, yields and the stock market all headed in the same direction.


The market is jittery about Donald Trump"s speech tonight. I"m expecting the garden variety, no details kinda address but there were some expectations built in for details and there"s always the chance he does something crazy.


With the market on a ludicrous winning streak, it doesn"t take much to push people the to sidelines. The S&P 500 is down 9.5 points to 2360 after chopping around in mildly positive territory to start the day.


Month end is the other factor as February wraps up. Stocks outperformed bonds in the month so there could be some rebalancing.            


The level to watch in USD/JPY is 111.60. If we get there, then the pair may close the month on the lows, which is a negative sign going forward.



USD/JPY hits fresh session low as stocks take a leg down
USD/JPY hits fresh session low as stocks take a leg down
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French policeman accidently shoots himself during Hollande speech

Hollande hardly breaks stride


A policeman in France accidentally fired his pistol during a speech by President Hollande. He and a colleague were reportedly lightly injured.



French politicians have been sniping him so long that he hardly slows down. Although you would think his security would be protecting him, just in case it was something sinister.


French policeman accidently shoots himself during Hollande speech
French policeman accidently shoots himself during Hollande speech
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FXStreet announces the winners of the Forex Best Awards 2017

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We are more than happy to reveal the winners of the 7th edition of our famous Forex Best Awards that rewards the best analysis, educational content and contributors on our website.  Here are the winners of The Golden Pip! Best Analysis: “If Trump’s ideas are so awful, why are markets recovering?” by Barbara Rockefeller, Rockefeller … Continue reading FXStreet announces the winners of the Forex Best Awards 2017


The post FXStreet announces the winners of the Forex Best Awards 2017 appeared first on About FXStreet.


FXStreet announces the winners of the Forex Best Awards 2017
FXStreet announces the winners of the Forex Best Awards 2017
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New Forex experts to help you win in the markets

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Today we want to present you two experts that will share their trading strategies with you every month live on FXStreet – and one of them will do it on his REAL MONEY account! Do you want to keep making money in these disturbing times in the markets? If so,  join their Webinars every month in … Continue reading New Forex experts to help you win in the markets


The post New Forex experts to help you win in the markets appeared first on About FXStreet.


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Analisi Forex con tecnica Ichimoku

Buongiorno a tutti i lettori di Investing.com,


vi proponiamo di seguito un analisi delle coppie EURCAD ed USDCAD con tecnica Ichimoku del team VisionForex.


Accedendo al mio profilo sul sito di investing.com (link: https://it.investing.com/members/200101673), trovate l"indirizzo del nostro canale Telegram, al quale potrete collegarvi per restare aggiornati su tutte le nostre attività formative e gratuite.


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Analisi Forex con tecnica Ichimoku
Analisi Forex con tecnica Ichimoku
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C'è chi vede tassi USA bassi per molto tempo

La video analisi panoramica sul mercato delle valute, proposta da Renato decarolis.


[embedded content]


© 2017 Renato Decarolis


All rights reserved



C"è chi vede tassi USA bassi per molto tempo
C"è chi vede tassi USA bassi per molto tempo
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Diretta Forex, indicazioni operative del 28 febbraio, 2017

Buongiorno di seguito troverete le indicazioni operative per la giornata odierna, con il rilascio dei livelli operativi di prezzo e ciclici inerenti ai principali cambi oltre a indici di borsa e commodities.


CAMBI ANALIZZATI:


EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD ,EURGBP ,


INDICI E MATERIE PRIME:


DAX
Petrolio Greggio
Oro


Di seguito la video analisi (Durata 24:42 minuti)


[embedded content]



Diretta Forex, indicazioni operative del 28 febbraio, 2017
Diretta Forex, indicazioni operative del 28 febbraio, 2017
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Trump, ieri solo un "assaggino", oggi tutto il resto

Buongiorno ai lettori di Investing.com,


ieri Trump ha già dato le prime indicazioni su cosa si baserà il suo programma ed i mercati hanno reagito concedendo ancora una volta fiducia, ma quello di ieri è stato solo un assaggio e oggi tutti gli operatori attendono maggior chiarezza e nuove direttive per capire le prossime mosse del presidente.




Nella video analisi odierna troverete :

- Calendario economico

- Performance del giorno precedente

- Analisi : Fondamentale, Tecnica, Grafica e Indicatori



[embedded content]


© 2017 Michele Badea

All rights reserved



Trump, ieri solo un "assaggino", oggi tutto il resto
Trump, ieri solo un "assaggino", oggi tutto il resto
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Impennata del KoF svizzero

Bentrovati ai lettori di Investing.com,


il barometro economico sosterrà ulteriormente il rafforzamento del CHF, rendendo molto più difficile il lavoro della BNS.


A febbraio l’indicatore predittivo è aumentato di 5,2 punti, salendo a 107,2, ciò significa che l’economia svizzera crescerà a un ritmo più veloce del normale.


Nonostante gli avvertimenti disperati sul brusco apprezzamento del CHF all’inizio del 2015, l’economia svizzera sembra aver resistito bene alla mancanza di competitività.


È emblematico che il contributo maggiore sia venuto dall’industria manifatturiera, che dipende fortemente dalle esportazioni, per cui il livello della valuta dovrebbe essere cruciale per un miglioramento.


Dai dati emerge un indebolimento della sensibilità alle valutazioni sul forex.


In prospettiva, il miglioramento delle prospettive su crescita e inflazione consentirà alla BNS di essere più flessibile sul livello dell’EUR/CHF.


La banca centrale continuerà a intervenire, ma l’intervento si limiterà ad addolcire e non invertire il trend.


Continuiamo a considerare i corti sull’EUR/CHF come l’operazione principale per navigare nelle acque agitate provocate dall’imminente incertezza politica in Europa.


Il supporto di base dell’EUR/CHF a 1,0632 fornirà un test chiave per gli operatori e per la BNS (fornendo informazioni sul livello di “sopravvalutazione” del CHF che la banca è disposta a tollerare).


EUR/CHF, grafico su tf giornaliero
EUR/CHF, grafico su tf giornaliero


Impennata del KoF svizzero
Impennata del KoF svizzero
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Cross GBP/CAD prossima opportunità Forex?

Buonasera ai lettori di Investing.com,


è per me un piacere, sottoporvi la mia classica video analisi Forex del martedì.


In attesa di capire cosa succederà questa notte (con il di scorso di Trump), ci potrebbero essere nel contempo, delle occasioni su alcuni cross valutari.


Vi auguro una buona visione!


[embedded content]



Cross GBP/CAD prossima opportunità Forex?
Cross GBP/CAD prossima opportunità Forex?
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The winner is...lo scopriremo questa notte!

La video analisi panoramica sul mercato delle valute, proposta da Renato Decarolis.


[embedded content]


© 2017 Renato Decarolis


All rights reserved



The winner is...lo scopriremo questa notte!
The winner is...lo scopriremo questa notte!
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Parla Trump? Allora meglio guardarsi attorno...

Buonasera a tutti i lettori di Investing.com,


come sicuramente voi tutti già saprete, stanotte alle 3 italiane, ci sarà il primo discorso al congresso del nuovo Presidente degli Stati Uniti Donald Trump.


I mercati sono in attesa delle sue parole per capire se manterrà le promesse fatte, ognuno può avere la propria idea su cosa accadrà ai mercati ma chi opera sul Forex, soprattutto in queste occasioni, ha un grosso vantaggio. Quale? Guardare altrove!


Il mercato azionario seguirà facilmente il trend dei maggiori indici americani, la maggior parte delle materie prime saranno condizionate essendo quotate in dollari, mentre per i forex traders ci saranno diversi strumenti su cui il dollaro ha un impatto poco rilevante.


Analizzando i grafici sul time frame giornaliero ho notato due situazioni interessanti, entrambe con lo Yen (valuta rifugio)


CAD/JPY





Come si può ben vedere dal grafico a candele Heikin Ashi, ci troviamo già in una fase discendente con massimi decrescenti che non hanno superato la trend line ribassista tracciata partendo da un grafico weekly.

Fin"ora l" area 85,10 ha funzionato benissimo come supporto statico, se tale area fosse violata sul daily, ci sarebbe la possibilità di entrare short. Sul grafico ho segnato anche i prossimi livelli interessanti che potrebbero essere utili come obbiettivi.

In calendario domani c"è il meeting della banca centrale canadese, non sono attese novità, per cui i tassi d"interesse dovrebbero rimanere invariati a 0,50%.



NZD/JPY





Discorso molto simile graficamente anche per NZD/JPY mentre, il calendario economico, non ci riserva particolari appuntamenti su queste due valute in questa settimana.


Ricordo infine, come detto in precedenza, che lo Yen è una valuta rifugio per cui potrebbero partire acquisti su questa valuta considerata la situazione di incertezza economica generale. In questo caso la mia view su questi due cross sarebbe agevolata.



Parla Trump? Allora meglio guardarsi attorno...
Parla Trump? Allora meglio guardarsi attorno...
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Analisi mercati, euro dollaro a un bivio

Buongiorno a tutta la community di investing


Consueta analisi sull"indice italiano, americano e il cambio euro dollaro.


Il nostro Ftse Mib sta andando in laterale, fortemente indebolito ha chiuso la scorsa settimana a quota 18600, pesano molto le incertezze politiche e la debole ripresa economica.


Situazione pressocché uguale alla scorsa settimana sul mini sp 500, mentre euro-dollaro si trova su un livello tecnico molto interessante.


Infine analisi di ewy, etf sul mercato coreano.


Buona visione

Cesare Marconi


Trading Building


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Analisi mercati, euro dollaro a un bivio
Analisi mercati, euro dollaro a un bivio
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Analisi flash dei Mercati Finanziari del 26 Febbraio 2017



Un Saluto a tutti gli utenti di Investing.com,


in questo articolo potete apprezzare l"Analisi Flash dei Mercati Finanziari effettuata da :




  1. La prima Parte è a cura di Francesco Cerulo, che ha trattato i principali Indici Mondiali ed alcune Blue Chip Italiane.



  2. La seconda Parte è a cura di AntonelliFX, che ha trattato le principali Majors del Mercato Forex e 2 Commodities: Oro e Platino.

Accedendo al mio profilo sul sito di investing.com (link: https://it.investing.com/members/109132007), trovate l"indirizzo del nostro canale Telegram, al quale potrete collegarvi per restare aggiornati su tutte le nostre attività formative e gratuite.




Grazie per la vostra attenzione
Buon Trading
Team VisionForex


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Analisi flash dei Mercati Finanziari del 26 Febbraio 2017
Analisi flash dei Mercati Finanziari del 26 Febbraio 2017
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$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Analisi flash dei Mercati Finanziari del 26 Febbraio 2017 Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/analisi-flash-dei-mercati-finanziari-del-26-febbraio-2017/