Australia Q2 Capex - initial responses

Australian private Capital Expenditure for the second quarter, data is here (and my initial response)

More responses coming in ...

Fast FT :

• Also disappointing was that the March quarter's contraction was revised to minus 5.4 per cent from an initial reading of minus 5.2 per cent


• Crucially, for the current financial year the ABS's "third estimate" forecasts private capex to be A$105.17bn, which is 9.1 per cent lower that the third estimate provided at the same time last year. But today's figure is a bit higher than the A$97bn economists, on average, were expecting.


• That forecast-beating third estimate, suggesting some economic resilience (if not defiance), is probably the key reason the Australian dollar has rallied - by one-third of one per cent to $0.7543 - in the wake of the data.

NAB:

• For 2016-17 spend, expectations were upgraded


• Investment is expected to decline by 12%, against prior expectations of a 16% decline


• Non-mining investment intentions a little better at -3% from a -7%


• Overall a little more positive than expected ... but still no real lift in non-mining investment intentions


• Does not impact on NAB's Q2 GDP expectation for next week at 0.3% q/q
  

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Note on the Capex data & next week's GDP announcement:

• Its an input into GDP growth ( we get Q2 GDO next week from Australia)


• Today's result could take 1.1% points off the quarterly GDP result
  

Australia Q2 Capex - initial responses
Australia Q2 Capex - initial responses
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