ForexLive Asia FX news: China manufacturing PMI officially better (privately not so much)

Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 1 September 2016

• Jam-packed calendar in September, no asset class immune from potential event risk


• China: NDRC Chairman says economy faces risks, challenges


• "Are You Smarter than an Algorithm?"


• ASB on the NZ terms of trade decline - it's a brilliant disguise


• Better China PMI to support yuan? Yes, says Commerzbank


• ANZ says they "have downgraded our USD forecasts across the board"


• Australia Q2 Capex - initial responses


• China Manufacturing PMI (Caixin) for August: 50.0 (expected 50.1, prior 50.6)


• Australia - Q2 Capex headline: -5.4% (expected -4%, prior -5.2%)


• Australia - Retail Sales (July): 0.0% m/m (expected +0.3%, prior +0.1%)


• PBOC sets yuan reference rate for today at 6.6784 (vs. yesterday at 6.6908)


• China manufacturing PMI for August: 50.4 (expected 49.8), Services 53.5 (prior 53.9)


• File under 'old news': Australia services not offsetting mining declines, Goldman Sachs


• Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (final) for August: 49.5 (flash was 49.6, prior 49.3)


• Heard the one about 'The Skyscraper Curse' & market crashes? Yeah, its rubbish.


• 11% last year - " href="http://news.forexlive.com/!/australia-corelogic-house-price-index-for-august-11-mm-prior-08-20160901" target="_blank">Australia Corelogic house price index for August: +1.1% m/m (prior +0.8%)


• Japan Q2 Capex, company profits and sales data


• Australian Manufacturing PMI (August): 46.9 (prior 56.4)


• Mexican president to Trump: "Pay for your own ****ing wall"


• NZ data: Q2 terms of trade down 2.1% q/q


• Comments from Westpac on Australian Capex data due today


• Australian Q2 capex due today (0130GMT) - preview


• Fed's Rosengren says rate rise could temper risk in commercial real-estate sector


• Morgan Stanley bullish EUR, CHF, GBP & bearish AUD and CAD


• Thursday 1 September 2016 trade ideas thread


• Banco Central do Brasil leaves rates on hold


• US Treasury's Sheets: US economy a relative bright spot


• Japan press: "the BOJ may surprise the market yet again"


• RBA noob says chill out on China fears

Asia kicked off September with a data deluge, but it didn't translate into much in the way of forex movement. Check out the bullets above for all the data results, but in very brief:

• NZD Q2 terms of trade fell dramatically (but ASB says they are about to turn much higher). NZD did little on the session, confined to a relatively small range


• Australian manufacturing PMI dropped like a rock in the month, for its largest monthly fall ever ... AUD doesn't pay much attention to this data point though and it remained mainly unmoved (until the capex data later, but I'll get to that)


• Aussie house price data followed, another rise (yes, again), further underlining the epic failure of the "50% price crash" crowd (will they ever learn? LOL)


• US Presidential contender Donald Trump met the Mexican President and was told he would have to pay for his own wall


• Japanese Q2 capex data (go on, have a guess) came in at a miss, and the yen did little. USD/JPY dribbled lower to around 103.10 during the session and then ticked back 20 points higher to be little changed for the day as I update. Japanese manufacturing PMI came out today too (the final reading for August), not matching its flash reading.


• Australia retail sales data for July came in at a big disappointment, unchanged on the month. At the same time we got Q2 Private Capital Expenditure data, the headline was a miss but the much-awaited '3rd estimate' for 2016/17 spending came in well above expectations, negating the negative headline somewhat. The Australian dollar ticked higher after an initial spike move 20 or so points down on the headlines, and as I update its about 10 points from the day's high and 20 from its lows ... so not a large range.


• We got two sets of PMI data from China today, firstly the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for August - manufacturing coming in at a big beat. The private manufacturing PMI (from Markit / Caixin) followed soon after, coming in at a line ball 50 for August which would appear indecisive ... but it was a big fall from July's 50.6 result so net a poor result indeed from this one.

EUR, CHF and GBP (all against the USD) are little changed indeed on the session. Gold, ditto while oil has added a few cents.

Regional equities:

• Nikkei +0.22%  


• Shanghai -0.15% (ps. The head of international affairs at the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Qi Bin, said today the country plans to raise quotas gradually for foreign investors to the A-share market)


• HK +0.51%


• ASX -0.12%

ForexLive Asia FX news: China manufacturing PMI officially better (privately not so much)
ForexLive Asia FX news: China manufacturing PMI officially better (privately not so much)
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