Can you help out SocGen on their long dollar conundrum?

SocGen"s Kit Juckes was in a bit pf a pickle as to whether USDJPY longs or EURUSD shorts were the best long dollar trade

SocGen think there"s little value in EURUSD shorts right now;

"EUR/USD looks like drifting down to 1.08 or so, but we"re still worried about how much Euro softness depends on the ECB crowding private sector investors out of European bonds and the Euro. We"ve written about how tapering of bond purchases could trigger a Euro bounce, but more broadly, a weaker currency was one of the major channels by which ECB policy has worked but if the Euro is now just range-trading and the ECB has virtually run out of ammunition, then we struggle to see a catalyst for another significantly lower."

On the other side, they see that there"s more yen longs to squeeze;

"US rate expectations rise and B OJ policy is well-designed to help yield differentials widen in the favour of the dollar as long as the upward crawl in treasury yields goes on. The only concern is risk sentiment more broadly - I couldn"t make a credible case for Yen softness on a trump win.."

They are already long USDJPY from 100.30 so they"re in the driving seat.

Do you agree that EURUSD may not have the legs for a big move lower with the upcoming ECB meeting and end of QE?

eFX News brings us the note. Try their wares here.

Can you help out SocGen on their long dollar conundrum?
Can you help out SocGen on their long dollar conundrum?
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