That"s according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which says in a new report that the poor -- who were hit hard by the financial crisis -- have been left behind in the global recovery.
On the first or second Friday of each month, Statistics Canada releases the Canadian jobs report, or Labour Force Survey. It"s a hugely market-moving data point for the Canadian dollar.
But over the past year it"s come under fire because of the unusual and consistent strength.
So economists have been taking a closer look at the "payroll employment, earnings and hours" report, which is released six weeks later but paints a more-complete picture. They have widely diverged in the past year, especially lately as the LFS has averaged 45K new jobs over the past three months in a very sluggish economy.
If we look at August, the LFS number was +26.2K. The more-complete payroll survey however showed August at -12.6K.
The good news is that the September numbers nearly matched. When the +67.2K print was initially released, the market scoffed. But the payroll survey showed 65.2K new jobs in the month.
Taking a step back, the highly-criticized LFS survey may even be understating the jobs market. In Sept, it showed employment up 139K but that compares to 217.1K in the payrolls data.
The large divergence is still troubling but even with problems in the Canadian energy sector, it"s clear that people are still hiring.
What"s troubling is the lack of pay raises. The earnings portion of the latest survey shows pay down 0.1% in September and up just 0.4% y/y.
Talking Points
- The South African Rand held steady as the central bank left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 7.0%, as expected.
- Future movements in USD/ZAR are more likely to be determined by events in the US than in South Africa.
- A rating decision Friday by Moody’s will also be an important driver.
The USD/ZAR exchange rate held steady Thursday as the South African Reserve Bank, as expected, left its benchmark repo interest rate at 7.00%. The South African Rand slumped in the four days after Donald Trump won the US Presidential elections, alongside other high yielding, emerging-market currencies; but has held its ground since. USD/ZAR, which traded as high as 14.6472 in the days following the election, traded at 14.1414 at the time this report was written.
Against the background of slowing inflation, a weak economy and a turbulent domestic political situation, rates are unlikely to rise in the near future. A local drought, lower commodity prices and weak global demand have all put the South African economy under stress in recent months.
Chart 1: USD/ZAR Hourly Chart (November 17 to 24, 2016)
At the end of last month, South Africa’s chief prosecutor dropped fraud charges against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan that had upset the nation’s currency. However, the possibility of still higher US interest rates after an expected increase next month is likely to be a more important driver of USD/ZAR; a move that could in turn raise South African borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve meets on December 14, and markets (per Fed funds futures contracts) are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-bps rate hike next month.
In the coming days, a decision Friday by the rating agency Moody’s Investors Service on whether to downgrade the country’s debt rating should prove market moving. Moody’s will review its Baa2 rating, which is two notches above sub-investment grade, while the two other major rating agencies S&P and Fitch, which rate South Africa just one rung from junk, are expected to give their verdicts on Friday next week.
At a press conference Thursday, Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said domestic growth and inflation dynamics have remained more or less in line with expectations, but risks to the inflation outlook have increased moderately. As for the country’s debt rating, he said that if the financial markets have priced in a downgrade, and a downgrade does not take place, the SARB would expect that there would be a possible repricing in financial markets.
Read more: British Pound Rallies as Autumn Statement Reveals New Fiscal Stimulus
--- Written by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com
Talking Points
- UK mortgage approvals rise to a five-month high in October.
- The data illustrate further signs that UK consumers are defying Brexit fears.
- Consumer confidence may still be hit when UK eventually leaves EU for good.
The British Pound is clawing back some gains on the Dollar and rising on the Euro after data earlier Thursday morning revealed that UK mortgage approvals climbed to a five-month high in October.
Chart 1: GBP/USD 5-minute Chart (November 24, 2016 Intraday)
Mortgage approvals for house purchases by the main High Street banks picked up for a second successive month in October, according to the British Bankers Association, a trade body for the UK banking and financial services sector. Mortgage approvals rose to 40,900 in October from 38,700 in September, beating consensus estimates of a rise to 39,000.
The data are not important enough to influence Bank of England thinking on monetary policy. But they do illustrate further signs that consumers are playing a leading role in keeping the economy growing following June’s Brexit vote.
Chart 2: EUR/GBP 5-minute Chart (November 24, 2016 Intraday)
Will this ‘British pluck’ among UK shoppers continue? Many are warning it will run out of steam. Mortgage approvals in October may have bounced back from August’s 19-month low, but they are still 10.5% lower year-over-year.
Economists also continue to suspect that business and consumer uncertainty will heighten next year in the run up to the UK’s official departure from the EU, which will hamper economic activity and crimp confidence and spending on the British high street. Rising inflation due to the weakened Pound will put pressure on peoples’ earnings and on companies’ willingness to hire staff.
This impending stagnation of households’ real incomes, driven by soft employment growth and high inflation, suggests that mortgage approvals will remain depressed next year. However, there is still a massive shortage of houses for sale in the UK, which is sustaining house prices.
Also remember that these figures are not the official measure. More comprehensive Bank of England data, which include specialist lenders, are published Tuesday.
Read more: British Pound Rallies as Autumn Statement Reveals New Fiscal Stimulus
--- Written by Oliver Morrison, Analyst
To contact Oliver, email oliver.morrison@ig.com
The latest news out on the OPEC deal is that OPEC will discuss cutting output down to 32.5mbpd, according to reports on social media via @Deltaone. The latest OPEC report had them running at 33.64mbpd. That might rise to a cut of as much as 1.3mbpd. OPEC might also ask non-OPEC to cut by 500-600kbpd, and Russia by 300k.
Still, it"s all more sources chatter and speculation but from it we can roughly build what OPEC may be aiming at, and where things stand.
So we have a broad outline and one the market has started to price. Iraq and Iran are probably still the biggest potential flies in the ointment, and the other important thing to remember is that we still don"t know what level these cuts of freezes will be set at because everyone is using current figures. It"s fine assuming that OPEC will green light a 1.3m cut before freezing but if that"s going to happen in Jan, they might be pumping 2m more a day by then.
Overall, the deal shaping up looks far from anything that could be considered as something that would stabilise or lift the price of oil over the long-term. Six months pumping at near full pelt, while those levels still add to the surplus, isn"t going to see prices materially higher. If the world wants stable flat prices for 6 months then this deal will get it. If oil producers want the price higher because they"re still below breakeven, this ain"t the deal for that.
Outside of kneejerk moves when we do get the announcement next week, there"s not a lot here that would really have prices running to any new ranges, which is $41-45 & $51/53-54 on my charts.
Brent daily chart
Brent weekly chart
Only something way out from the above would have the possibility of doing that, and know from history that OPEC deals often fail to deliver to expectations
Throughout all these weeks of news and conjecture, the one thing I"ve always fallen back to in my thinking, is that the supply/demand dynamics haven"t changed and they still won"t by this deal, and that stops me from being bullish.
There is perhaps one outlier that might be worth considering. With sentiment rising that the US is going to suddenly jump into fiscal action and be a boon for global growth, we might find that oil has some catching up to do. If USD and bond players were holding back over the election, oil players might be doing the same ahead of the OPEC meeting. Once that risk is removed, oil may try to catch up with he rest of the commodity rally we"ve already seen. Just something to consider.
© Reuters. Dollaro riprende fiato tra scambi festivi, resta in vista ultimi massimiLONDRA (Reuters) - Tende a riprendere il fiato il biglietto verde, senza però allontanarsi dal record degli ultimi venti mesi su euro e otto mesi su yen. Rimane in vista dal massimo da quasi 14 anni anche l"indice calcolato sulle principali controparti commerciali,
A mercati Usa fermi il Ringraziamento, qualche realizzo sul dollaro si è visto da parte degli istituti di creditio cinesi a controllo statale, intervenuti quando la valuta Usa ha toccato il record di 7 contro yuan.
"Facile farsi tentare con le vendite di dollari se si pensa che il mercato Usa non lavora, ma l"idea di fondo sul mercato dei cambi resta la stessa: aumenta la fiducia nel rally del dollaro" commenta Valentin Marinov, strategist per le valute del G10 a Credit Agricole (PA:CAGR).
Investing.com – Piazza Affari è oggi, al giro di boa della seduta, la peggiore fra le maggiori piazze finanziarie europee con una perdita che, per ora, si attesta al -0.40% a 16.477 punti. La positiva partenza rialzista è stata velocemente sostituita da un trading laterale, con tendenza leggermente ribassista; la tendenza è tuttora in atto.
Il setup odierno è certamente influenzato dal ridotto volume di scambi consequente alla festività del mercato americano, con la celebrazione del thanksgiving Day.
Positive, con l’eccezione di Milano e Londra, anche se moderatamente, le rimanenti principali piazze finanziarie europee.
La situazione attuale vede Londra (-0.12%), Francoforte (+0.08%), Madrid (+0.12%), Parigi (+0.02%), Amsterdam (+0.00%) e Zurigo (+0.31%).
Al momento il setup tecnico di brevissimo dell’indice italiano, rimane laterale, con possibilità di ulteriori allunghi down con primi supporti individuabili, in successione, a 16450 e 16250 punti.
I Titoli bancari sono, al momento, in maggioranza negativi e la peggiore performance è, attualmente, quella di Banca Milano che registra un -2.07%.
A Piazza Affari, al momento, fra i migliori troviamo: Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (MI:BMPS) (+5.30%), Buzzi Unicem (MI:BZU) (+1.70%), Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (MI:FCHA) (+1.32%) e Ferrari NV (MI:RACE) (+1.08%).
Sul fronte opposto, i peggiori al momento sono: Unipol Gruppo (MI:UNPI) (-2.21%), Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl (MI:PMII) (-2.20%), Banco Popolare (MI:BAPO) (-2.11%) e Leonardo Finmeccanica SpA (MI:LDOF) (-1.97%).
Leggermente rialzista, al momento, il cambio del cross EUR/USD che scambia a 1.0564, in salita del +0.20%.
Fra le news di maggior rilievo, troviamo oggi: PIL della Germania e della Spagna,Indice IFO sulla fiducia delle aziende in Germania, Approvazioni di mutui in GB, tasso d’interesse overnight e pronti contro termine in Turchia, Rapporto Gfk sul clima fra i consumatori tedeschi, Riserve della banca centrale russa, Saldo della bilancia commerciale in Nuova Zelanda.
In an interview with the New Statesman, the former British prime minister said the process could be halted.
"It can be stopped if the British people decide that, having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis doesn"t stack up," Blair told the magazine.
The former Labour Party boss believes that parliament -- or the British people -- will in the end be allowed to pass judgment on the specific exit deal negotiated with the EU.
That puts him at odds with Prime Minister Theresa May, who has rejected calls for a second referendum, while insisting that "Brexit means Brexit." She"s also appealing a court ruling that parliament should have a vote before the formal exit negotiations begin.
May has committed to triggering the legal exit process by the end of March. That will set off two years of frantic negotiations over the terms of Britain"s exit from the trading bloc.
Blair makes the case for a public evaluation of whatever deal is negotiated. Will Britain retain access to the EU"s giant free trade area? Or will it be forced to go it alone and negotiate new trade deals with Europe and the rest of the world?
"Why wouldn"t you keep your options open? Why wouldn"t you say, "We took this decision, we took it before we saw what its consequences are; now we see its consequences, we"re not so sure?" " he asked.
Related: The cost and complexity of leaving the EU
The public got its first official look at the cost of Brexit on Wednesday. The U.K. will be forced to borrow an extra £58.7 billion ($72.6 billion) over the next five years because of an economic slowdown triggered by the exit, according to estimates published by the Office of Budget Responsibility.
The independent government agency said growth will slump to just 1.4% next year -- the weakest rate since 2009.
Blair, who has expressed a desire to reengage in policy debates in the U.K., cited the example of a deal offered to Nissan (NSANY) following the referendum. In exchange for continued investment in the U.K., May is believed to have offered the Japanese automaker certain commitments.
But the specifics of the deal remain a closely held government secret.
"I don"t know what the terms of that deal are, but we should know," Blair said. "Because that will tell us a lot about what [the government is] prepared to concede in order to keep access to the [EU] single market."
Related: U.K. economy to grow at slowest pace since 2009
Blair won three consecutive general elections, the last in 2005. He was the Labour Party"s longest serving prime minister but faced fierce criticism over his decision to join the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003.
Now he is intent on returning to policy debates by leading a resurgence of the center-left.
"You"ve got to learn the right lessons of Brexit, Trump and these popular movements across the Western world," he said. "Otherwise you"re going to end up in a situation where you seriously think that the populism of the left is going to defeat the populism of the right. It absolutely won"t."
The Thanksgiving holiday is one of the quieter days of the year in financial markets and that extends into Friday, which is a de facto holiday in much of the country that"s now dedicated to rampant consumerism.
At the CME, equity, interest rate and foreign exchange products are closed, along with energy and metals. Products resume trading at 6 pm ET (2300 GMT). On Friday, they close early at 1:45 pm ET (1845 GMT) but trading will be sparse.
The New York Stock Exchange is closed all day today and closes at 1 pm ET on Friday (1800 GMT). Same story at NASDAQ.
In terms of bonds, SIFMA recommends a full close today and a 2 pm ET (1900 GMT) close on Friday.
Here is the full notice from the CME regarding trading on Thanksgiving and Nov 25 (pdf).
The spot forex market never closes for holidays but it will be thin and illiquid today, especially after London goes home. Canadian markets are full open today as well.
It"s a leading indicator.
The country overtook China as the world"s fastest growing major economy this year, but may fall behind again as the withdrawal of big rupee notes hurts business activity.
Analysts estimate India"s shock decision to scrap its 500 rupee and 1,000 rupee notes -- accounting for about 86% of cash in circulation -- will shave at least 1% (and possibly much more) off India"s current GDP growth rate of 7.1%.
"A 3% dip in the growth rate [for the current financial year] wouldn"t surprise me," Pronab Sen, India"s former chief statistician, told CNNMoney. Sen is country director for India at the International Growth Centre in London.
If that happens, India would almost certainly lose its crown to bigger rival China.
Related: How fast are India and China really growing?
"The impact on GDP growth is clearly going to be negative in the short run," said Thomas Rookmaaker of Fitch Ratings.
How big a hit the economy will suffer "depends to a large extent on how long the cash crunch is going to take," Rookmaaker added.
No end in sight
It doesn"t show signs of ending anytime soon. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), over 5 trillion rupees ($74 billion) in old cash has been sucked out of the economy since Prime Minister Narendra Modi"s abrupt announcement onNov. 8.
So far, only 1 trillion rupees ($15 billion) have been replaced by new 500 and 2,000 notes -- equivalent to just 7% of the value of the defunct cash. The new notes are too small for ATMs, and refitting the machines will take weeks.
The Indian government has given people 50 days -- until Dec. 30 -- to exchange old notes. But daily and weekly limits apply.
Related: 5 key questions about India"s cash crunch
In a country where close to 90% of transactions take place in cash, the shock will reverberate a while longer.
"Unavailability of notes and restrictions on withdrawals have made it difficult to carry out transactions, even for those who have legitimate wealth," Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist for HSBC, said in a recent note.
Sectors such as retail, construction and real estate rely heavily on cash and contribute about 30% of GDP, according to the Institute of International Finance. It estimates that the hit to those areas of the economy could pull growth down by more than 2% over the next two quarters.
Rupee sinks to record low
The economic fallout helped push the rupee to a record low of 68.86 to the U.S. dollar on Thursday, despite reports that the RBI was selling dollars to stop the slide.
Modi is hoping the rupee note switch will reduce tax evasion and money laundering. It still appears to have solid support among Indian voters. And analysts say the long term impact, if coupled with further policy changes, could be good for the economy.
"The[negative] impact might well be mitigated once the supply of the new notes has improved," said Shilan Shah, India economist at Capital Economics.
"I think the impact over the longer term is probably going to be quite positive, given that it"s a fairly strong reflection of the government"s anti-corruption drive," he added.
Food and soft drink manufacturing profits were solid, and to a lesser extent so were machinery and equipment wholesalers.
Oil and gas extraction contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter and each of the quarterly losses in 2016 have been larger than in 2015.
The only real winners are finance in the Canadian economy with financial industries earning $26.1 billion in Q3, or 32.3% of all corporate profits.
The controversial French satirical magazine will next week begin publishing a German edition.
A spokeswoman for the magazine said an initial run of 200,000 copies will be printed in Germany. She noted that the French version of Charlie Hebdo is already popular in the country, which is home to a large French-speaking population.
The German version of the edgy magazine will include both translated and original content.
"If we do feel like one topic is too French oriented, we will either replace it with an exclusive content, or else bring out an archive and translate it," the spokeswoman said.
The magazine will open a small office in Germany. But the new edition"s content will be produced in Paris, and its top editor will be based in the French capital.
The first edition of the weekly mag will cost €4 ($4.20) and hit German newsstands on Thursday, December 1. The magazine sells for €3 in France.
Related: Charlie Hebdo faces lawsuit over Italian quake cartoons
Charlie Hebdo became an international symbol of free expression after an attack on its newsroom in January 2015.
Terrorists killed 12 people, including the magazine"s top editor and several cartoonists.
The publication had received violent threats about its caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed before the attack and several of its staff were under police protection.
A week after the attack, the magazine"s "survivors" edition" featured a cartoon depiction of Mohammed on the cover.
The wearable tech company makes clothes with built-in sensors to track how different muscles are used during a workout. A Bluetooth-enabled device transmits data back to a smartphone app, allowing users to see which areas they"re working.
"So much of conditioning has been educated guess work," says Don Faul, the company"s CEO. "Now, trainers can actually understand what athletes are doing on the field, what"s working and what"s not working, and how to use that knowledge to prepare them to perform their best. That"s never been possible before."
Read more: How Tracy Anderson became fitness guru to the stars
The product was the brainchild of Dhananja Jayalath and Christopher Wiebe, two students from Toronto"s University of Waterloo who also happened to be workout buddies.
They wanted to know if they were doing their exercises right, but couldn"t afford a personal trainer -- so they decided to create their own digital fitness coach.
More than data
They use breathing and electromyography (EMG) sensors, which are built into the fabric, to track the electrical activity of the muscles and translate the data into a form that"s useful for the wearer.
Faul says this has been one of the biggest challenges for the company. "For us, data in and of itself is insufficient," he explains. "What people want to know is, "how do I use what I"m doing to get more out of my training?""
Someone bench pressing in an Athos shirt, for instance, can look over the data and see if they"re favoring one arm, and try to correct the imbalance. Someone doing squats can simultaneously glimpse at the Athos app to see if they"re activating their glutes properly.
Based in Redwood City, California, Athos offers only a few pricey products: a men"s shirt and shorts (together retailing for $547) and women"s leggings ($149).
Faul says the company is currently focusing on professional and soon-to-be professional athletes -- from high school up through the Olympic level. The clothes are already being trialed by NFL hopefuls, as well as seasoned pros, like former world champion light welterweight boxer Amir Khan.
But Athos, which has raised more than $50 million in funding since its 2012 launch, has plans to target more casual users and add more products to its range.
Dollar shorts are not the only people getting stuffed today. Today"s the day Turkeys get hot under the collar as the yanks take a holiday for Thanksgiving.
While it should be a fairly quiet afternoon, the reduced liquidity might still make for some jumpy moves. With USDJPY still quite volatile, that will magnify what would usually be more sedate moves. Just be on your guard in this and other pairs. The trades to look for is anything that really goes against the current trends but be wary that most yanks tend to take tomorrow off as well.
Looking at the 15m chart right now, the 113.53 high is the main upside level to watch, while 112.80/85. 112.70, 112.55/60, 112.35/40 & 112.20/25 look to be the support levels below.
The Fed will have a keen interest in Thanksgiving and inflation by gauging the TPI (Thanksgiving Price Index).
This year, the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner fell to $49.87 vs $50.11 prior, first drop below $50 since 2014. Inflation adjusted numbers show the dinner cost has fallen to the lowest since 2010 at $20.66. Turkey costs fell to $22.74 vs $23.04 last year.
US TPI
It"s been a mixed bag of price rises and falls for other items included in the TPI
TPI details
So no inflation for the Fed from here this year and that might factor into the Dec FOMC ;-)
Jokes aside, if you"re off for Thanksgiving, have a good and peaceful one.
Happy Thanksgiving to all those celebrating it around the globe
News:
Data:
These fragile markets continue as the US prepares the turkey dinners.
Busy times again that"s seen USDJPY continue its march higher to 113.53 before retreating as per recent patterns and another rally in the pound before sellers re-emerging to take GBPUSD back to 1.2450 from 1.2495 and EURGBP to 0.8483 from 0.8460 after 0.8504 highs.
EURUSD posted fresh lows of 1.0518 as early USD demand prevailed but was soon back above 1.0550 with AUDUSD also taking advantage of the USD turnaround to post 0.7419 but still doing its own thing by and large.
USDCAD also fell on the USD sales to 1.3480 from 1.3530 helped by oil staying underpinned and USDCHF stalled into 1.0200 and backed off to 1.0146 before finding fresh demand.
So, some good opportunities again. Not always easy to pick but they"re out there to be had.
Ieri in seguito alla pubblicazione dei dati USA oltre le attese, ha scatenato una nuova esplosione dell"USD verso l"alto.
Questa esplosione ha rotto dei livelli molto importanti, facciamo attenzione a non cadere nella trappola.
Vi ricordo che oggi in USA si festeggia il ""Thanksgiving Day"".
Nella video analisi odierna troverete :
- Calendario economico
- Performance del giorno precedente
- Analisi : Fondamentale, Tecnica, Grafica e Indicatori
[embedded content]
© 2016 Michele Badea
All rights reserved
I dati svizzeri pubblicati oggi hanno fornito delle buone notizie, di cui c’era un gran bisogno.
La produzione industriale svizzera è salita dello 0,4% dal dato rivisto al ribasso pari al -1,3%; la produzione del settore costruzioni è aumentata dell’1,1% rispetto al dato rivisto al ribasso pari al -1,9% a/a.
Dopo un 2015 debole, i dati industriali mostrano finalmente una decisa tendenza al rialzo.
Il costante deprezzamento del CHF ha dato adito a timori sul tasso di cambio, che si sono fatti sentire su settori come quello dei beni di lusso.
Sono continuati gli interventi verbali della BNS, Maechler ha dichiarato che la banca centrale è pronta a “intervenire in caso di necessità”.
Con l’attenuarsi del rally dell’USD, aumenta la pressione sul CHF e andare lunghi sull’USD/CHF è diventata una strategia preferenziale per chi opera sul differenziale fra i rendimenti.
Poiché la Fed si orienta verso una maggiore normalizzazione e la BNS manterrà i tassi negativi per un tempo indefinito (Maechler ha detto che la debolezza dell’IPC indica che la politica attuale è appropriata), questa operazione appare come una scommessa sicura.
È interessante notare che Maechler ha affermato che la BNS è pronta a intervenire sull’esito del referendum in Italia.
Il 4 dicembre l’Italia voterà su una riforma della Costituzione e l’incertezza risultante potrebbe innescare una forte volatilità sul forex.
Il franco continua a essere una moneta utilizzata molto quando le acque sono tranquille, ma rimane anche il rifugio sicuro per eccellenza in caso di turbolenze di natura geopolitica.
Guardando al calendario del 2017 (considerando soprattutto gli eventi rischiosi in Europa), è difficile prevedere una debolezza direzionale del CHF.
Inoltre, rimaniamo ribassisti sull’USD nel medio e lungo termine, perché prevediamo che il ciclo di normalizzazione della Fed raggiungerà il suo picco all’1,5%, e non al 3% previsto dalla Fed.
Stamattina in Germania sono stati pubblicati parecchi dati economici, in particolare il dato finale sul PIL del T3, risultato perfettamente in linea con la stima preliminare.
Non sono state apportate modifiche e l’economica si è rafforzata dell’1,5% a/a, pur espandendosi solo dello 0,2% t/t.
Anche i consumi privati sono aumentati, salendo dello 0,3% t/t, durante il trimestre.
Crediamo, tuttavia, che per il momento i dati economici non siano sufficienti a far apprezzare l’euro, perché la BCE mantiene un’impostazione prettamente accomodante.
I rendimenti tedeschi mostrano una tendenza rialzista e quelli dei Bund decennali sono in stallo sotto lo 0,25%.
Al contempo i rendimenti tedeschi sono crollati ai minimi storici.
È opinione piuttosto diffusa che la BCE rivedrà leggermente il suo programma di acquisto asset per non rimanere senza titoli.
I mercati quindi non si concentrano sui dati, ma sulle banche centrali.
Viviamo una fase in cui i dati economici hanno un ruolo secondario rispetto alla politica delle banche centrali.
A nostro avviso, è molto probabile che la BCE si autorizzi ad acquistare bond con rendimenti inferiori alla soglia minima per i depositi (-0,4%), il che spiega l’attuale apprezzamento del Bund tedesco a due anni.
© Reuters. Il dollaro sale al massimo di 14 anni contro i rivali, scambi ridottiInvesting.com - Il dollaro rimane stabile al massimo di 14 anni contro il paniere delle altre principali valute questo giovedì, si prevedono volumi piuttosto contenuti durante gli scambi festivi di questo Thanksgiving day.
Il biglietto verde rimane fortemente sostenuto dalle aspettative di un aumento della spesa pubblica e di una riduzione delle tasse sotto la Presidenza Trump.
Una crescita più veloce e l’inflazione più alta spingerebbero la Fed ad inasprire la politica monetaria prima del previsto.
Il dollaro USA è stato sostenuto dalla speculazione che la banca centrale USA deciderà quasi sicuramente di alzare i tassi il mese prossimo.
La presidente della Fed Janet Yellen lo scorso giovedì ha dichiarato che un aumento dei tassi “potrebbe rendersi necessario relativamente presto”.
Il cambio EUR/USD è in salita dello 0,09% a 1,0562, e si stacca dal minimo di 20 mesi dopo i dati positivi sulla fiducia delle imprese tedesche; nel report Ifo si legge che l’indice sulla fiducia delle imprese è sceso a 110,4 questo mese da 110,5 di ottobre.
Gli economisti avevano previsto una lettura a 110,5.
La coppia GBP/USD è stabile a 1,2447.
Il cambio USD/JPY è in salita dello 0,36% a 112,95, staccandosi dal massimo di otto mesi di 113,53 toccato precedentemente, mentre il cambio USD/CHF è stabile a 1,0166.
Il dollaro australiano è in salita, con il cambio AUD/USD su dello 0,23% a 0,7401, mentre il cambi NZD/USD è stabile a 0,7005.
Il cambio USD/CAD è stabile a 1,3500.
L’indice del dollaro USA, che replica l’andamento del biglietto verde contro un paniere di altre sei principali valute, si attesta a 101,70, poco al di sotto del massimo di 14 anni di 101,97 toccato nell’overnight.
Not one the market is overly bothered about but it goes into the general mix. confidence has been holding steady for a while.
German consumer sentiment
Buongiorno a tutti i lettori, di seguito troverete le indicazioni operative con i livelli da tenere sotto controllo per la giornata odierna, inerenti ai principali cambi oltre a indici di borsa e commodities.
Cambi analizzati:
EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/CAD, EUR/NZD, USD/CHF, AUD/CAD, USD/MXN
--------------------------------------
Indici e Materie prime :
DAX
FTSE MIB
S&P 500
Petrolio Greggio
Brent
Oro
Di seguito la video analisi.
[embedded content]
Durante la seduta asiatica, il dollaro USA ha ampliato i guadagni contro quasi tutte le coppie di valute, mentre si registrava un’accelerazione delle vendite su bond e mercati emergenti.
Dopo aver guadagnato lo 0,70% martedì, l’indice del dollaro è salito di un altro 0,10% a Tokyo, raggiungendo quota 101,90, livello massimo dal marzo del 2003.
I dati USA migliori delle attese diffusi ieri avvalorano le ragioni a favore di un rialzo del tasso d’interesse negli USA.
Le valute dei mercati emergenti hanno continuato ad essere oggetto di deflussi massicci, perché gli investitori si orientano sulle attività USA. Ieri l’indice Dow Industrial Average ha chiuso sui massimi storici – per il terzo giorno di fila – a 19.083 punti.
Oltre al peso messicano, che ha subito pesanti vendite dopo l’elezione di Trump, il real brasiliano ha fatto registrare le perdite peggiori nel comparto dei mercati emergenti, cedendo fino al 10,90% contro il biglietto verde; la coppia USD/BRL è balzata a 3,50 prima di scendere, una volta tornata la calma sui mercati, a 3,38.
La ragione principale della recente svalutazione delle valute emergenti è che, negli ultimi mesi, questi mercati sono stati inondati da flussi massicci di capitale sulla scia della caccia a rendimenti più elevati. L’USD/BRL non è pero riuscito a violare al rialzo la media mobile a 200 giorni e la divisa al momento è bloccata sotto questo livello, a 3,43.
Giovedì lo yen giapponese ha subito nuove pressioni, perché gli investitori continuano a preferire il biglietto verde sulla scorta dei solidi dati USA.
All’avvio della seduta europea, l’USD/JPY si è impennato a 113,42, in rialzo di più del 2% sulla settimana, dopo che, a ottobre, gli ordini di beni durevoli sono saliti del 4,8%, superando la previsione media dell’1,7%, e che il rilevamento precedente è stato rivisto al rialzo, dal -0,3% allo 0,4%.
L’indice, esclusi i trasporti, è salito dell’1% m/m rispetto allo 0,2% previsto e allo 0,2% della revisione al rialzo.
In un capitolo a parte, le domande iniziali di disoccupazione hanno rispettato le attese, attestandosi a 251 mila unità rispetto alle 250 mila previste.
Sui mercati azionari, stamattina le piazze regionali asiatiche hanno avuto un andamento contrastato, con il Nikkei in rialzo dello 0,94% al rientro dalle festività.
Nella Cina continentale, l’indice composito di Shanghai è rimasto piatto, mentre quello di Shenzhen ha ceduto lo 0,38%.
Sulle piazze offshore, l’Hang Seng ha perso lo 0,26% e il Taiex lo 0,28%.
In Europa, i future sui listini azionari sono positivi - con il DAX a +0,14%, il Footsie a +0,24% e l’Euro Stoxx 50 a +0,20% - lasciando presagire un’apertura in rialzo.
European bonds
The FTSE tried to make a spirited comeback from the 6779 lows as Hammond opened the purse and despite being up on the day we fell back into the close. Watch tomorrows papers to see how the UK press is going to react to the news. For me there was nothing special and no doubt our "cup half empty" media will feel the same.
Since Nov 8, the market has decided that it doesn"t mind populism.
The pound has been the only currency able to hang with the US dollar since the election and that"s continued today.
Cable weakened to 1.2361 at the peak of the US dollar rally today but it"s recovered to a session high of 1.2462. The pound is also beating up on the rest of the FX market, especially GBP/JPY, which is at the best levels since July.
Donald Trump"s decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a controversial trade deal, wasn"t taken well by world leaders.
A wide range of global markets have surged by 20% or more from recent 2016 lows, meaning they are officially in bull territory.
GBPUSD looked like it was sitting back and watching the show for a while but now it"s finding its feet.
GBPUSD 15m chart
While we"ve made a new high for the day, the late European resistance yesterday at 1.2440 has slowed things down. It"s no coincidence that that has come as EURGBP takes what might be a temporary breather at 0.8475. GBPJPY is still adding to the moves as it chalks up over 300 pips from the days low.
1.2500/15 is still the level to get back above to let buyers push on but be wary that these euro moves might see some profit taking as Europe heads out the door.
Strong auction. The bond bulls finally make a stand. That"s a big miss and barring a surprise from the FOMC Minutes, that might be the cue that the latest round of market moves is over.
Gentili Lettori di Investing.com, in video abbiamo analizzato ed operato, al solo scopo didattico e formativo, sui principali indici e titoli del mercato equity e principali valute del mercato forex, una buona visione!
[embedded content]
La video analisi panoramica sui mercati, proposta da Renato Decarolis.
[embedded content]
To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here.
Talking Points:
In our last article, we looked at the prospect of a new bullish trend in EUR/JPY as the pair surged to fresh three-month-highs, bursting above a previously strong zone of resistance around the 116.37 level.
And since that last article, Yen weakness has continued in a very big way; leading to significant top-side breaks in many Yen-pairings such as USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and of course, EUR/JPY. Of those three, the move in EUR/JPY may be the most vulnerable, as the potential for an extension of European QE out of the ECB can carry the potential to drive the Euro-weaker in the weeks ahead. If we combine this with a series of resistance levels sitting just above price action, and traders would likely want to move forward on continuation moves with a heavy amount of caution. For those looking to trade in Yen-weakness, more attractive venues may be seen in pairs with base currencies carrying lessened ‘QE-risk’, such as AUD/JPY or the aforementioned USD/JPY or even GBP/JPY.
A big ‘decision level’ on the pair can be seen at the psychological level of 120. This level is significant because not only is it a round-figure on the pair, but it’s also just 10 pips away from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 16-year major move in EUR/JPY. Traders that are looking to stage top-side approaches would likely want to let this level first break to prove that bulls might be able to continue pushing the move-higher. Should that take place, traders can then use this potential level of resistance to try to find that ‘higher-low’ of the continuation move.
Chart prepared by James Stanley
--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
Gray is the global head of real estate at the Blackstone Group (BX) private equity firm and widely considered heir apparent to Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman.
"I had a terrific meeting and robust policy discussion with the president-elect," Gray told CNNMoney on Wednesday. "It was an honor to be considered for Treasury secretary, but I still have much work to do at Blackstone."
That could clear the way for former Goldman Sachs (GS) banker and film producer Steven Mnuchin to be tapped for the Treasury post.
Sources had told CNN this week that Gray and Mnuchin were the two remaining contenders. Mnuchin served as Trump"s chief fundraiser during the campaign, and is the former principal investor and CEO of OneWest, the bank that was formed when he purchased failed subprime lender IndyMac in 2009.
The Treasury secretary is essentially the federal government"s banker, paying its bills, collecting taxes and selling and managing U.S. debt. The department has about 100,000 employees, of which about 91,000 work for the IRS. The secretary is also a top regulator of banks and Wall Street and the face of the U.S. in negotiations with finance ministers around the globe.
Just looking at the specs -- 4K UHD TVs, 1080p displays, quad-core processors -- is enough to give you a holiday hangover.
Considering the sheer number of items on sale starting this week -- Walmart alone has 11 TV deals -- you"ll want to be an informed shopper.
According to the Consumer Electronics Association, TVs and laptops top the list of what shoppers will look for this holiday season, followed by smartphones, video games, tablets and headphones.
To make it easier, we"ve rounded up what you should keep in mind -- and other tips, like where to buy the cheapest Apple (AAPL, Tech30) products -- before reaching for your wallet.
TVs
About 98% of U.S. households own a TV -- and the average house has three. When you"re shopping for a new one, first consider where it will go and why you want it. Will it be your flagship set in the living room, or is it destined for the guest bedroom or kitchen?
The living room: If you want all the new bells and whistles, consider a 4K display, also known as Ultra HD. This means the resolution -- 3,840 by 2,160 pixels -- is four times that of an HDTV. You"ll get a super crisp picture and be ahead of the trend.
"We"re excited 4K TVs will finally see significant discounts, but shoppers should know that options for 4K content are still limited," said Benjamin Glaser, editor at DealNews.
You"ll still be able to watch TV on a stunning display, but most entertainment companies aren"t yet producing content specific for a 4K TV"s resolution.
Beyond display, keep these specs on your radar: Smart capability -- so you can stream content from the web -- and HDMI ports, if you"re planning to connect other devices to it. The price points will be dictated by these features, as well as screen size.
Your second TV: You can still find solid 4K options for less money. Walmart is offering a 43-inch 4K Ultra HD Smart TV for $199. Standard HDTVs are very affordable this season, too. Smaller HDTVs (32 inches) can get you even closer to $100.
Laptops
You may know off the bat whether you want a Windows, Mac or Google Chrome operating system, but the options within any of those are vast. The three things you need to decide on are screen size, hard drive space and computer processing capability.
Size: If you"ll be lugging it around often, you might want a smaller 11-inch or 13-inch laptop. 15-inch laptops are great for the home or power users.
Brands: If you"re a student or just want a computer to surf the web at night, go for a Google Chromebook. These cloud-based computers, which run on Google apps (like Google Docs and Sheets), can cost less than $200. But they"re limited, with no hard drive space. If you plan to edit photos or video, look elsewhere. Some retailers are offering discounts on MacBook Air laptops -- Best Buy is selling the 13-inch MacBook Air for $999 -- but don"t expect major deals around Apple"s more powerful MacBook Pro line.
Processor: According to Glaser, the best value this year is for 15-inch laptops with Skylake or Broadwell Intel processors for about $300.
"There is a more current Intel processor (Kaby Lake), but it is mostly in high-end laptops that will be less affordable, and also more powerful than most users need," he said.
If you"ll be using a computer for gaming or heavy-duty work, you"ll want a dual-core or quad-core processor. Each core performs tasks, so a dual-core processor can handle two tasks at a time -- like browsing the web and downloading a file simultaneously -- while a quad-core can handle four and offer better performance.
Hard drives: The MacBook line starts in the 256 GB range -- perfect for the average user. If you"re into editing photos and video, opt for something bigger, like 500 GB or even 1 TB.
Display: If you"ll be streaming a lot of Netflix, go for a crisp high-resolution screen (1080p). But sometimes display quality isn"t a priority.
"You don"t go out looking for a Chromebook with 4K resolution because those laptops attract a different audience. Price and portability is more important," Shawn DuBravac, chief economist at the Consumer Electronics Association, told CNNMoney.
That said, 720p is still a good display option for the average consumer.
Gaming consoles and VR headsets
Sony and Microsoft have rolled out incremental system updates and complimentary accessories to hold people over until their next big console launch, likely in two years. For example, Sony is touting its new PlayStation VR set -- which has been in high demand -- to work alongside its existing PS4 or a new PS Pro consoles.
But the best value you"ll find this year is with bundles -- a combo package that often includes games, gift cards and other accessories, like controllers -- when you purchase a PS4 Slim and the Xbox One S.
"Older generation consoles will be cheaper, but not by much," Glaser said. "Budget-minded gamers should not pre-order the Playstation Pro or wait for Microsoft"s Project Scorpio, as it will still be quite some time until they see significant discounts."
Virtual reality headsets have been slow to hit the mainstream, but there are a ton of new and affordable options to introduce people. Google Daydream View is a solid consideration at $79, while the Samsung Gear ($60 as a standalone product) often comes bundled with phone purchases.
Other tips
--The Apple Store doesn"t typically offer steep sales around the holidays, but it"ll often throw in iTunes credit or Beats headphones with a purchase. Other retailers, such as Best Buy, Walmart and Target, do frequently discount Apple devices, while also offering gift cards and other incentives. (Target is offering a $250 gift card with an iPhone purchase this year).
--Be aware of return policies. Some companies offer returns for only 15 or 30 days, while others extend it into the new year.
--A lot of gift cards are given around the holidays, so stories often roll out big savings in January and February. You may want to cash in on those cards then.
--If you see something you want, get it. "Retailers are pretty lean on inventory this year across the board," DuBravac said. "If you find a good deal, take advantage of it. Things will sell out."
--Some retailers are vague about product details and models. For example, there are three generations of the Apple Watch -- the "original", the Series 1 and the Series 2 -- so make sure you"re getting the one you want, even if a store doesn"t say which model is on sale. "If you see an Apple Watch for an unbelievable price, it is probably the original, which has a slower processor," Glaser said.
--Some companies release old products under new serial numbers just for the holidays, he added. "This means there may be no reviews or price comparisons available. We saw this from Roku last year."
Overall, the best way to survive holiday shopping is to do your research ahead of time: Compare prices, research the trends and know what you want.
"You should also stick to your shopping list," Glaser said. "This has the added benefit of helping you avoid impulse buys."
