Google+

mercoledì 31 maggio 2017

Australia (May) manufacturing PMI: 54.8 (prior 59.2)

Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing Index for May


A big drop on the month, down 4.4 points to 54.8 for its 8th consecutive month in expansion

  •  prior 59.2 (was the strongest monthly result since February (before that since May 2002))



more to come

Australia (May) manufacturing PMI: 54.8 (prior 59.2)
Australia (May) manufacturing PMI: 54.8 (prior 59.2)
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Australia (May) manufacturing PMI: 54.8 (prior 59.2) Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/australia-may-manufacturing-pmi-54-8-prior-59-2/

PIMCO's 5 significant pivots, & says US recession chance now 70% within 5 years

PIMCO"s latest "Secular Outlook" was released overnight


It"s a report on the firm"s views developed through the "Secular Forum" held on May 8-10

In very brief:

  • The firm is assessing the chance of a US recession in the next 5 years at 70%

  • Investors should gather cash for that - when stocks and bonds will be cheaper

  • And ... "Investors should use cyclical rallies to build cash to deploy when markets correct and risks are re-priced"

  • "In contrast to prior downturns, there"s not a lot of tools in the policy tool-kit" ...  said potential lack monetary policy options is like "driving-without-a-spare-tire"

  • "People need to remember that in 2001, the Fed cut interest rates by five percentage points. In the next recession, the Fed is not going to have room to cut the interest rate by five percentage points"

  • Firm predicts  President Trump"s proposed tax package will pass, but will be "light on reform", ore about tax cuts

More:

  • Italy to remain in the euro zone

  • Forecasts 2 % growth & 2% inflation for the US

  • "All three key risks that we saw on the horizon - elevated and rising debt levels, monetary policy exhaustion and the ascent of populism - have either materialized or become more real" 

The full report is here, including PIMCO"s outline of:

  • Over the next five years, the global economy may undergo five significant pivots in the direction and scope of monetary, fiscal, trade, geopolitical and exchange rate policies. But while the direction of some of these policy pivots may be known, the path that policies actually take, their impact on the global economy and markets, and their ultimate destination are today all highly uncertain. That said, over our five-year secular horizon we believe that the global economy will be "driving without a spare tire" as the Fed raises rates and shrinks its balance sheet, and that any pivot to fiscal policy that materializes will be unlikely by itself to boost global growth prospects in a sustainable way.





PIMCO"s 5 significant pivots, & says US recession chance now 70% within 5 years
PIMCO"s 5 significant pivots, & says US recession chance now 70% within 5 years
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! PIMCO"s 5 significant pivots, & says US recession chance now 70% within 5 years Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/pimcos-5-significant-pivots-says-us-recession-chance-now-70-within-5-years/

Australia retail sales data (April) - previews

There will be much focus on the capex data today, I"ve posted a few previews already


But, its also retail trade data day!

Here are some brief comments from banks on what to expect on the retail data today, bolding mine:



ANZ:

  • Expecting a small rise in retail sales in April (after two consecutive declines)

  • Trend remains weak

  • ANZ think households have likely kept the purse strings tight

  • Consumers appear cautious about household finances, with consumer confidence trending lower amid weak wage growth, rising energy bills, high levels of household debt and rising expectations that house price growth will moderate

  • Another negative outcome would be worrying - the last time sales fell for three consecutive months was in late 1999/early 2000

Westpac:

  • Retail sales dipped 0.1% in March following a 0.2% decline in February and a 0.5% gain in January

  • Cyclone Debbie and abnormally wet weather over the eastern states had a significant impact in March - Queensland was the hardest hit, saw retail sales fall 1.3%

  • April will clearly see some rebound from weather effects

  • However, this is against a weak consumer backdrop with sentiment weakening in early 2017 amid increased pressures on family finances

  • Private sector business surveys continue to point to retail underperforming non-retail consumer sectors as well

  • With price discounting an ongoing drag on nominal sales as well we expect the rebound in monthly retail sales to be fairly muted with just a 0.3% gain overall

RBC:

  • Retail sales have been particularly weak of late, with the monthly average barely 0.1% over the last six months

  • Some payback for two consecutive negative monthly prints is likely in April, but we have long highlighted the challenges for the consumer-weak wages growth, high levels of debt, still elevated unemployment-which remain intact

  • We look for a corrective bounce of 0.3% in April although this is unlikely to challenge the tepid trend.



Australia retail sales data (April) - previews
Australia retail sales data (April) - previews
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Australia retail sales data (April) - previews Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/australia-retail-sales-data-april-previews/

Muddy Waters: “Starting to believe that there could be some real problems with Canada”

The quote is from Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters and (very much the) activist Investor


"I"m starting to believe that there could be some real problems with Canada"

  •  recent selloffs in Home Capital Group Inc. & Element Fleet Management Corp. show investors are nervous about soaring real estate prices and household debt

more to come




Carson Block

Muddy Waters: “Starting to believe that there could be some real problems with Canada”
Muddy Waters: “Starting to believe that there could be some real problems with Canada”
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Muddy Waters: “Starting to believe that there could be some real problems with Canada” Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/muddy-waters-starting-to-believe-that-there-could-be-some-real-problems-with-canada/

Australian Q1 capex data due today - preview 2

The Australian Q1 Capex is due today (the Survey of the Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure (March quarter of 2017) )



  • Due from Australia at 0130GMT



This via Westpac.

  • Business spending on capex contracted in each of the past four years, including a -15.5% for 2016, led lower by mining

  • Perhaps surprisingly then, we expect a positive start to 2017, albeit a small one, forecasting a rise of 0.5% for Q1

  • The mining investment drag has diminished and some businesses appear to be responding modestly to improved conditions: with incomes boosted by higher commodity prices; global growth having strengthened; and the domestic economy having emerged from the mid-2016 slowdown

  • Building & structures is expected to be flat in Q1, after a 25% fall in 2016. The Construction Work (CW) survey was +1.2% for Q1, but we"re mindful that the capex at times undershoots CW

  • Equipment spend is forecast to rise by 1.2%, after a Q4 result of 0.4%qtr, 1.5%yr, with gains expected in mining and services

I bolded a few bits and pieces above.

Note, WPAC looking for

  • a "headline" of "a rise of 0.5% for Q1"

  • Equipment spend is forecast to rise by 1.2%



Australian Q1 capex data due today - preview 2
Australian Q1 capex data due today - preview 2
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Australian Q1 capex data due today - preview 2 Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/australian-q1-capex-data-due-today-preview-2/

Australian Q1 capex data due today - preview 3 (this one is a quickie)

Australian Q1 Capex is due today at 0130GMT


I posted a few previews already.


(more detail)
Now, this, a quickie from RBC:

There are three key numbers in the detailed CAPEX survey

  1. Firstly, real capex in Q1, which we expect to have fallen modestly (RBC -0.5%) as the capex downturn begins to abate. This will feed into Q1 GDP due on 7 Jun, which is shaping up on the soft side.

  2. Secondly, an update on nominal spending plans for FY2016-17.

  3. And thirdly, the second estimate of plans for FY2017-18.

We note that the survey was conducted over the last 6-8 weeks, with business confidence at a 7-year high and conditions holding at a decade-high. Plans for both FYs should, accordingly, show some upward revision, especially 2017-18 with an inherent upward bias in the early estimates.








Australian Q1 capex data due today - preview 3 (this one is a quickie)
Australian Q1 capex data due today - preview 3 (this one is a quickie)
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Australian Q1 capex data due today - preview 3 (this one is a quickie) Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/australian-q1-capex-data-due-today-preview-3-this-one-is-a-quickie/

Preview - "Your 10-second guide to today's Australian retail sales report"

Australian March quarter 2017 Capex survey data is due today at 0130GMT


I posted a few bank previews already:

Business insider have this one up, a great summary & preview;

But I"m gonna have to have a word with them about "10 seconds" :-D.

Maybe for the speed readers.



In very brief from the BI piece (check out the link above for more), the major points to watch

1. Expectations for the headline is +0.5%

2. Equipment, plant and machinery figure, a direct input into Q1 GDP

  • There"s no forecast offered for this figure

  • But ANZ"s economics team thinks it"s likely to increase by 1.5% given growth in capital goods imports during the quarter

  • Such an outcome would make a positive contribution to quarterly GDP

  • Previously expenditure in this category grew by 0.4%.

3. In terms of the second estimate of 2017/18 spend

  • the figure that"s most likely to generate market volatility

  • the median forecast is looking for expenditure of $88 billion, higher than than the first estimate of $81 billion

  • Estimates tend to increase over time as strength in operating conditions becomes more clear to firms

  • Within the second estimate, many will be looking at expected spend from other industries, particularly as the RBA expects it to pick up in the quarters ahead.





Preview - "Your 10-second guide to today"s Australian retail sales report"
Preview - "Your 10-second guide to today"s Australian retail sales report"
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Preview - "Your 10-second guide to today"s Australian retail sales report" Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/preview-your-10-second-guide-to-todays-australian-retail-sales-report/

NZ terms of trade data for Q1, up 5.1% q/q

New Zealand Terms of trade index for Q1, the March quarter of 2017.




more to come

NZ terms of trade data for Q1, up 5.1% q/q
NZ terms of trade data for Q1, up 5.1% q/q
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! NZ terms of trade data for Q1, up 5.1% q/q Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/nz-terms-of-trade-data-for-q1-up-5-1-qq/

Politics Drives Dollar-Yuan Reversal, What Gets Risk Back on Track?


Talking Points:


  • The Chinese Yuan is rallying (USD/CNH dropping) as China makes moves to gain global influence amid US withdrawal

  • Crude oil and Pound keep their volatility levels high but their fundamental motivations differ dramatically

  • A divergence in risk-motivated assets offers further evidence that complacency wide spread and deep

The US ADP payroll report is the lead in to Friday"s NFPs. Sign up for the live coverage webinar on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to see how the event impacts the Dollar and rate forecasts for the June 14th FOMC decision.


Big moves within these otherwise complacent markets are increasingly difficult to miss. One of the most remarkable moves this week is the sudden surge from the Chinese Yuan (the tumble from USD/CNH). The move is the second sharpest in the offshore currency"s relatively short life. As complicated as a direct trade as their pair may be, its developments are important for anyone that is keeping tabs on the global financial system. While there are technical aspects supporting this jolt of activity, the real current follows deeper fundamental concerns - namely, politics. The US is moving increasingly away from a globalist economic position to one that shows more elements of an isolationist agenda. This past week"s NATO and G7 summits only solidified that tendency. With the world"s largest economy withdrawing, its second largest member sees the opportunity to solidify its position after a tenuous but rapid ascendance. China has made considerable moves to draw tighter connections to other key global players and regions which increasingly makes it an indispensable wheel in the machine. That can help expedite the country"s opening of its financial system, offer better pressure relief mechanisms for future crises and systemically change the flows of capital around the world. While most political developments carry significant market influence, they are generally focused in on more immediate (months to perhaps a few years) circumstances. This development more definitively change the landscape through the foreseeable future.





Another significant mover this past session which is likely to maintain its activity level was crude oil. The commodity posted a sharp drop on the session and the explanations applied were generally formulaic. While it is certainly likely that waning confidence in OPEC production cuts and the complicating influence of the shale production along with the moderation in consumption (seasonally adjusted) all have an impact on prices; these strong moves within broader range seems to reflect underlying conditions well. Complacency has turned off most markets from prevailing trends and the surge in participation behind oil futures trading ensures there is plenty of market to still express volatility. Expect more activity without clear, long-term bearings and an abundance of explanation. Meanwhile, the Pound put in for a wide range day with another political focus. With the UK general elections a week away and recent surprise vote outcomes in the Brexit (EU Referendum) and US Presidential election, expect the market to fixate on any updates on the country"s lean. The closer the outcome looks - or even more significantly if the Prime Minister seems on track to lose majority - the more dramatic the impact on the Sterling.


Political and trade developments seem to be taking the active influencer roles over risk trends and monetary policy. Yet, the latter motivations are unlikely to remain dormant for long. Risk trends in particular are a constant volatility threat - especially when markets are this complacent, even oblivious to unstable conditions and an abundance of threats. The S&P 500 wavered slightly this past session and the VIX only barely climbed above 10. The true problem arises in the divergence in the performance of risk-oriented markets. For monetary policy, the docket ahead will start the drum beat for the FOMC rate decision on June 14th. The ISM manufacturing report will reflect on the health of a sector that has been the focus of the new administration while the ADP payrolls figures will set the marker for anticipation in the May NFPs. We discuss active movers and deep moving fundamental themes in today"s Trading Video.


To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE


Politics Drives Dollar-Yuan Reversal, What Gets Risk Back on Track?Politics Drives Dollar-Yuan Reversal, What Gets Risk Back on Track?

Politics Drives Dollar-Yuan Reversal, What Gets Risk Back on Track?
Politics Drives Dollar-Yuan Reversal, What Gets Risk Back on Track?
https://rss.dailyfx.com/feeds/all
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Politics Drives Dollar-Yuan Reversal, What Gets Risk Back on Track? Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/politics-drives-dollar-yuan-reversal-what-gets-risk-back-on-track/

Fitch Ratings downgrades MetLife's Brighthouse Financial unit




A MetLife Inc building is shown in Irvine, California, U.S., January 24, 2017.

REUTERS/Mike Blake



Fitch Ratings downgrades MetLife"s Brighthouse Financial unit
Fitch Ratings downgrades MetLife"s Brighthouse Financial unit
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Fitch Ratings downgrades MetLife"s Brighthouse Financial unit Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/fitch-ratings-downgrades-metlifes-brighthouse-financial-unit/

New York City suspends municipal business with Wells Fargo




A Wells Fargo Bank is shown in Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S., September 26, 2016.

REUTERS/Mike Blake



New York City suspends municipal business with Wells Fargo
New York City suspends municipal business with Wells Fargo
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! New York City suspends municipal business with Wells Fargo Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/new-york-city-suspends-municipal-business-with-wells-fargo/

U.S. infrastructure-focused mutual funds, ETFs attract inflows in May


By Jennifer Ablan
| NEW YORK

Investors poured an estimated $316.6 million into infrastructure-focused U.S. mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in May, according to preliminary data by fund-tracker Morningstar Inc. on Wednesday, extending a monthly inflow streak since the presidential victory of Donald Trump.

The latest figures suggested investors were warming to the president"s budget proposal, unveiled last week, which calls for $200 billion in federal infrastructure funds with hopes to leverage $800 billion more in private and state government investments.

Investment firms including BlackRock Inc, the world"s largest asset manager with $5.4 trillion in assets under management, Blackstone Group LP, the world"s biggest private equity manager, and Jeffrey Gundlach"s DoubleLine Capital have been active in the sector.

BlackRock has been building up its infrastructure unit, started in 2011. It works on public-private partnerships globally, and on complex endeavors that can range from wind farms to transportation projects, financed by equity or debt.



Last week, BlackRock announced the creation of a $280 million infrastructure debt fund that will be focused on highways and other infrastructure projects in Colombia.

For its part, the $450 million DoubleLine Infrastructure Income actively invests in three sectors of infrastructure credit: corporate bonds, structured product (also known as asset-backed securities) and project bonds. It is the only taxable bond mutual fund for investors who want to invest in non-municipal infrastructure credit, a space otherwise dominated by insurance companies and other institutional creditors.



Infrastructure debt finances projects, assets or companies that provide essential services in strategic sectors of the economy. Investments can include debt that finances airports, toll roads, power plants and renewable energy. It can also include investments secured by infrastructure-related assets, such as aircraft, rolling stock and telecom towers.

"Infrastructure debt is a surrogate for investment-grade corporate bonds," Gundlach said in a telephone interview. "These are vastly more secured with assets pledge to them and all are investment-grade rated and dollar-denominated. I consider them much safer and they yield more and have shorter duration."



Overall, institutional investors have historically invested in infrastructure mostly through private equity. Infrastructure debt, however, is a nascent investment opportunity that has arisen over the past several years due to increasing regulatory constraints on infrastructure lending (such as Basel III), said Damien Contes and Andrew Hsu, who oversee the DoubleLine Infrastructure Income Fund.

So far this year ended May 30, DoubleLine Infrastructure Income has posted returns of 3.66 percent, surpassing 95 percent of its category group.

(Additional reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by David Gregorio)


U.S. infrastructure-focused mutual funds, ETFs attract inflows in May
U.S. infrastructure-focused mutual funds, ETFs attract inflows in May
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! U.S. infrastructure-focused mutual funds, ETFs attract inflows in May Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/u-s-infrastructure-focused-mutual-funds-etfs-attract-inflows-in-may/

Trade ideas thread - Thursday 1 June 2017

Happy June y"all!


Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so.



Who will take the prize for being first in June? ;-)

Trade ideas thread - Thursday 1 June 2017
Trade ideas thread - Thursday 1 June 2017
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Trade ideas thread - Thursday 1 June 2017 Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/trade-ideas-thread-thursday-1-june-2017/

Economic data due from Asia: Japan, Australia capex; BOJ, Fed; China - big day coming

It"s a big day on the economic calendar in Asia today, along with central bank activity


2245GMT - New Zealand - Terms of Trade Index for Q1

  • expected +3.9% q/q, prior +5.7%

2330GMT - Australia manufacturing PMI

  • The Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing Index for May

  • the prior was 59.2 for its seventh consecutive month of expansion & the strongest monthly result since February (before that since May 2002)

2350GMT - Japan - capex for Q1

  • Capital Spending y/y for Q1, expected is +4.0%, prior was +3.8%

  • Capital Spending excluding software y/y for Q1, expected is +4.1%, prior was +3.3%

  • Company profits Q1, prior was +16.9%

  • Company sales Q1, prior was +2.0%

Also at 2350GMT,

  • International Transactions in Securities data from Japan"s Ministry of Finance, for the week ended May 26

0000GMT - Australia - CoreLogic house prices for May


0010GMT - Federal Reserve San Francisco head John Williams is speaking in Seoul, with a news conference following

 

0030GMT - Japan - Nikkei / Markit Manufacturing PMI for May (final)

  • the "flash" for May was 52.0 , with the prior at 52.7

  • If confirmed May will be 6 month low

  • Noteworthy detail in the flash report was that the Output Index showed its slowest growth for six months and that job creation was at its weakest since November of 2016

0130GMT - Australia - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, for the March quarter of 2017

AKA, the Q1 Capex report

  • The "headline" is expected to be +0.5%, previous was -2.1%

  • While the headline is an immediate focus, of equal of not more) important are the figures for investment in "Machinery, plant and equipment" and the "second estimate" for 2017/18 investment

  • Ill have more on this in a preview of this report separately

0130GMT - Australia - Retail sales for April. The capex data is a focus, but this is of at least equal importance and focus.

  • expected +0.3% m/m

  • prior -0.1%

  • Yesterday we got the private sector (NAB) survey for retail, more detail here, but in brief if its any guide to today"s retail sales its not gonna be strong!

0130GMT - Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Yutaka Harada is speaking, at a meeting with business leaders in Gifu



0145GMT - China - Caixin / Markit Manufacturing PMI for May


Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Yutaka Harada, speaking at 0130GMT. No tie? Maybe he wants to be Greek PM? 



Economic data due from Asia: Japan, Australia capex; BOJ, Fed; China - big day coming
Economic data due from Asia: Japan, Australia capex; BOJ, Fed; China - big day coming
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Economic data due from Asia: Japan, Australia capex; BOJ, Fed; China - big day coming Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/economic-data-due-from-asia-japan-australia-capex-boj-fed-china-big-day-coming/

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar ends the day mixed. Rises ag. commodity currencies. Falls ag. the rest.

Forex news for trading on May 31, 2017


A snapshot of other markets at the close:


  • US stocks ended the day with modest declines. S&P down -0.05%. Nasdaq down -0.08%. Dow down -0.10%

  • US yields are little changed from yesterday"s close. 2 year 1.2818%, unchanged. 5 year 1.7516%, unchanged. 10 year 2.204%, down -0.5 bps. 30 year 2.8664%, down 1 bp.

  • Spot gold up $6 or +0.48% to $1269.25

  • WTI Crude $48.74, down $-0.91 ore -1.83%

The US dollar was mixed in trading today with the greenback falling vs the EUR, CHF and GBP, and rising vs the AUD, NZD and CAD.  It was little changed vs. the JPY.   



Fundamentally, the greenback was influenced by some weaker US data. The Chicago PMI typically has a limited impact on the market.  Today was not one of those days (some technical breaks may have also contributed).  The regional manufacturing index came out weaker than expected at 55.2 vs 57.0 estimate. That was enough to push the greenback lower - mainly against the GBP, EUR and JPY (the commodity currencies were less impacted as oil, iron ore, CRB commodity index were going lower in trading today).  



A short time later, pending homes sales were also weaker (supply was the excuse once again) . That weakness - not matte the excuse - did not help the sentiment.  



Around the London 4 PM fixing time, there seemed to be another run to the downside in the greenback on the back of month end flows.  That pushed pairs like the EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY toward their high extremes vs. the greenback.  



Ironically, the piece of data that started the dollars selling, stalled the fall a short time later when the Chicago PMI was revised corrected as European/London traders looked to exit.  Instead of being lower at 55.2, the actual number was higher at 59.4.  The rest of the day saw a minor retracement in the impacted currencies.  



In central back speak today: 


  • Fed"s Kaplan said that inflation is slow but he does not think the trend is deteriorating

  • ECB Lautenschlaeger says the ECB should start to reduce its bond buying QE and Weidmann said the ECB should start to adjust guidance. 

  • SNBs Jordan lamented about the CHFs strength. The CHF was the strongest currency today, so his comments did not have a big impact (although the CHF was only up marginally against the EUR (up 0.17%))

  • Finally the Feds Beige book said that growth was modest/moderate.

Technically for some of the major currency pairs:

(more to come)


  • EURUSD: 

  • USDJPY:

  • GBPUSD:

  • AUDUSD:

  • USDCAD:


----------------------------------------------------------




Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major pairs vs each other. The CHF and EUR are the strongest, while the AUD and CAD are the weakest. 





Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar ends the day mixed. Rises ag. commodity currencies. Falls ag. the rest.
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar ends the day mixed. Rises ag. commodity currencies. Falls ag. the rest.
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar ends the day mixed. Rises ag. commodity currencies. Falls ag. the rest. Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-dollar-ends-the-day-mixed-rises-ag-commodity-currencies-falls-ag-the-rest/

UK poll, Cons 42, Labour 39 (You Gov)

The latest YouGov poll hitting the wires, poll conducted for the Times newspaper


The gap is narrowing again

  • Conservatives on 42%

  • Labour on 39%

Election is June 8

more to come



GBP is off a few points.  This is the usual reaction as information comes in showing the race is tighter. The perception is that a weakened government (not going to get the result in the polls of a great majority which is why PM May called the election in the first place) means a weaker negotiating position with the EU and thus a "harder" Brexit.

Or, you could just parrot "also selling". Which confuses cause and effect, but whatever floats your boat.             

UK poll, Cons 42, Labour 39 (You Gov)
UK poll, Cons 42, Labour 39 (You Gov)
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! UK poll, Cons 42, Labour 39 (You Gov) Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/uk-poll-cons-42-labour-39-you-gov/

OIL - Private inventory data shows bigger than expected draw in crude stocks

This is the private survey, which is released to their subscribers at 4.30pm ET (US time) and hits media (mainstream and social) soon after.


Oil prices have popped on the much bigger than was expected drawdown in US crude inventory.

Gasoline also showing a bigger than expected draw in stocks.






more to come

 
OIL - Private inventory data shows bigger than expected draw in crude stocks
OIL - Private inventory data shows bigger than expected draw in crude stocks
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! OIL - Private inventory data shows bigger than expected draw in crude stocks Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/oil-private-inventory-data-shows-bigger-than-expected-draw-in-crude-stocks/

In rare twist, cash may prove better portfolio protector than bonds: James Saft


By James Saft

With bond yields at historic lows, cash may now be in a rare period when it offers better portfolio protection and diversification than bonds.

Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes are just 2.2 percent, driven nearly 40 basis points lower since March by a rally in bond prices on moderate growth and sluggish inflation.

The yield on cash, of course, is even lower, with three-month Treasury bills yielding just 0.98 percent, but cash’s usually discreet attractions may now, unusually, mean that its low volatility and more symmetrical risks give it the upper hand over bonds in portfolio construction.

“In a low-return world, the drawdowns from government bonds have been significant,” Alain Bokobza and the asset allocation team at Societe Generale write in a note to clients.

“We find the excess return offered by government bonds over cash is now in negative territory. Due to lower volatility, lower correlation and a similar expected return as for bonds, our (methodology) finds cash a more effective instrument for portfolio protection in the current market environment.”

In dollar terms, the rolling 12-month returns from Treasuries have turned negative and the maximum drawdown - the biggest loss - has increased this year. Clearly, too, with government bonds at such low yields, an investor realistically faces more risk from rising rates, which hit capital values, than potential returns from falling rates.

Perhaps even more importantly, Societe Generale calculates that government bonds are now more highly correlated to a basket of other assets including equities than cash. An uncorrelated asset, one which tends to move less in the same direction, is useful as a diversifier.



Investors diversify, usually primarily into government bonds, not because they expect to make more money in them but because they serve as ballast, keeping a portfolio stable and allowing the owner to take on more risk via high-returning assets like equities than they otherwise would.

Over the very long term, since 1871, the equity-bond correlation has been close to zero, meaning bonds are extremely useful as portfolio insurance, generally moving in the opposite direction to stocks. (here)

That’s changed, perhaps as markets have become more tightly integrated, and Socgen now sees a correlation of about 30 percent between stocks and the rest of the financial universe outside cash.

If government bonds don’t yield much, move around a lot in value and won’t pay off when your other assets are going down, then their value to investors is far less.



HISTORY NOT KIND TO CASH


To be sure, history has not been kind to cash. In the U.S., cash has averaged an annualized real return of just 0.8 percent since 1900, compared to 2 percent for bonds, according to Credit Suisse data. Since 2000, the comparison is even less flattering: cash has lost 0.5 percent of its value annually in real terms, compared to a 5.1 percent return from bonds.

Cash has usually had a place in investment portfolios, but its attractions and payoffs are only loosely related to the small yield it generates. Cash is valued by investors for its optionality, meaning cash’s value isn’t in its returns, which are small other than in the rare periods when short-term rates are much above inflation, but in the way in which it can be deployed.

But cash also holds its value better than stocks and bonds during periods of volatility.



A concern now is the not far-fetched scenario in which bonds and stocks both lose value at the same time and at close to the same rate, a contrast to their usual lower level of co-movement.

Investor and historian Peter Bernstein made the case in the 1980s for a portfolio split 75/25 between equities and cash, over the typical 60 percent equities/40 percent bonds. Bernstein observed that though cash tends to return less than bonds, it always outperforms when bonds lose money and, he held, would keep pace with bonds about a third of the rest of the time.

Add in lower volatility and you can create a portfolio which takes on more risk in higher-returning assets, be they equities, real estate or whatever you prefer.

The truth is that investors have never faced a period analogous to today - with interest rates this low and asset markets supported so much by monetary policy.

Cash looks better than it usually does, but when in uncharted waters it is usually best to proceed slowly.

(James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

(Editing by James Dalgleish)


In rare twist, cash may prove better portfolio protector than bonds: James Saft
In rare twist, cash may prove better portfolio protector than bonds: James Saft
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! In rare twist, cash may prove better portfolio protector than bonds: James Saft Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/in-rare-twist-cash-may-prove-better-portfolio-protector-than-bonds-james-saft/

For the oil traders - heads up for private inventory data, due at the bottom of the hour

The data is day after its usual time this week due to the US holiday on Monday


It"s the private survey, with official data following tomorrow morning (US time). The median forecast is for stocks of crude to have fallen 2.5 mln barrels last week (Reuters survey). This would be the eighth straight week of inventory draw.







For the oil traders - heads up for private inventory data, due at the bottom of the hour
For the oil traders - heads up for private inventory data, due at the bottom of the hour
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! For the oil traders - heads up for private inventory data, due at the bottom of the hour Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/for-the-oil-traders-heads-up-for-private-inventory-data-due-at-the-bottom-of-the-hour/

US stocks end the day down, but could have been much worse...

S&P down -0.05%. Nasdaq down -0.08%. Dow down -0.10%.


The US stock major market indices are ending the day in the red but things could have been much worse. 




  • The S&P is ending down -1.11 points or -0.05% at 2411.80. The high was early in the day at 2415.99. The low extended to 2403.59.  

  • The Dow is closing at 21008.65, down -20.82. The high reached 21051.70. The low 20942.57.

  • The Nasdaq index is ending down 4.674 points or -0.08% to 6198.516. The high came in at 6221.98. The low was at 6164.06. 

Looking the Nasdaq intraday price action, the high was in the first few minutes of trading. The low was not that long after the opening. The rest of the day saw the price test the 50% of the days range until the last 30 or so minutes when that level was broken (at 6193.026).  




So the day was a down day. No new record closes. However, it could have been much worse.





US stocks end the day down, but could have been much worse...
US stocks end the day down, but could have been much worse...
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! US stocks end the day down, but could have been much worse... Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/us-stocks-end-the-day-down-but-could-have-been-much-worse/

US commerce secretary Ross comment on NAFTA, Canadian lumber, Mexican sugar

US commerce secretary Ross" remarks crossing the wires


Speaking on NAFTA


  • Says department will impose anti-dumping, anti-subsidy duties in Mexican sugar, Canadian lumber cases if negotiated settlement cannot be reached

  • Says ideal window to complete NAFTA renegotiations is late December 2017 or January 2018

CAD is pretty much unmoved, MXN off a few tics 








US commerce secretary Ross comment on NAFTA, Canadian lumber, Mexican sugar
US commerce secretary Ross comment on NAFTA, Canadian lumber, Mexican sugar
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! US commerce secretary Ross comment on NAFTA, Canadian lumber, Mexican sugar Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/us-commerce-secretary-ross-comment-on-nafta-canadian-lumber-mexican-sugar/

California could let consumers sue banks, despite arbitration clauses

California lawmakers are making headway on legislation to allow state residents to sue financial institutions for fraud, rather than letting banks force customers to settle disputes in arbitration.

The state Senate on Tuesday passed the bill, spurred by last year"s Wells Fargo phantom accounts scandal. It now goes to the legislature"s Assembly, where it is also expected to win approval.

Under the bill, judges could override contract clauses that require customers to settle disputes through arbitration in cases where a bank commits fraud using customers" personal information.

"Instead of allowing victims to have their day in court and permit an independent judge or jury to arrive at a verdict following an open and fair trial, Wells Fargo wrongly pushed customers seeking justice into forced arbitration,” California Treasurer John Chiang said in a statement on Wednesday.



Mandatory arbitration clauses inserted into Wells Fargo account-opening agreements have blocked its customers from suing Wells, the third-largest U.S. bank, in court over revelations that the bank opened millions of accounts without customers" knowledge.

Arbitration clauses, which have become standard practice since a 2011 U.S. Supreme Court decision, require consumers to agree not to sue in the future as a condition of purchasing products or services.

Republicans and others say that class actions, where people band together to share resources in a single lawsuit, only benefit lawyers who reap high fees and does not right substantial wrongs. Companies also say the lawsuits suck up time and money, compared to arbitrations that speed smoothly toward resolution.



Consumer-rights advocates, meanwhile, portray arbitration as a fixed game. Because companies largely control the proceedings - most hire and pay the arbitrators - they can ensure disputes are settled in their favor, advocates say.

In addition, arbitration rulings are made by just one person and are not subject to any kind of appeal.



In the Wells Fargo account scandal, regulators, including the CFPB, fined the bank $190 million for the alleged deceit, of which $5 million was to be paid to customers.

The legislation in California, which as the country"s most populous state makes it particularly influential, could open the door for other states to step in where the federal government has recently faltered.

Momentum to do away with mandatory arbitration clauses led the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to propose a rule last year requiring companies to let customers join class action lawsuits. But that proposal has stalled in the face of opposition from Republicans, who control both Congress and the White House.

In March, Representative Brad Sherman of California and Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, both Democrats, introduced bills to prohibit mandatory arbitration clauses for credit card and personal bank accounts. But the bills are expected to go nowhere.

(Reporting by Lisa Lambert; Editing by Leslie Adler)


California could let consumers sue banks, despite arbitration clauses
California could let consumers sue banks, despite arbitration clauses
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! California could let consumers sue banks, despite arbitration clauses Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/california-could-let-consumers-sue-banks-despite-arbitration-clauses/

Q&A: Cyclical stocks set to boost Wall Street rally: Richard Bernstein


By Michael Connor
| NEW YORK

Wall Street"s rally is not nearly done, with cyclical stocks set to ride higher even as hopes dim that America"s government can deliver business-friendly economic reforms, U.S. money manager Richard Bernstein said on Wednesday.

CEO of RBAdvisors, and a former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, Bernstein focuses on company profits at the sector level and said in the Reuters Global Markets Forum he sees no signs a rally that began last year in U.S. stocks is sputtering.

Investors now steering money to other areas are ignoring the bright prospects for U.S. corporate profits, which Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S has as up 15.4 percent in the first quarter from early 2016.

The following are edited excerpts from GMF:

Question: The S&P 500 is up 300 points from November. Is it time to take some money home?



Answer: The shift to cyclicals during 2016 that started in February was based on fundamentals. The election (of President Trump) exacerbated that run as the markets began to look for overheating and inflation based on the combo of a healthy economy and Washington"s proposals.

However, the "sugar high" has evaporated. Unfortunately, that has reinforced investors" fears about growth, and you"ve seen a massive defensive run. I would argue the defensive run is NOT based on fundamentals. Rather, it is momentum investing and fear. The bull market isn"t over in our view.

Q: What do you take from the strong U.S. first-quarter profits?



A: That makes the defensive run so curious. The average U.S. company is strongly growing profits, but no one seems to care. Quite weird. We don"t see the U.S. profits cycle peaking for a few quarters yet.

Q: Are there big variations in earnings gains among sectors?



A: Earnings in most cyclical sectors have been quite healthy .... (Diverging) U.S. sector performance would lead one to believe that the U.S. is heading for significant slowdown or a recession. Neither of which seem evident.

Q: Are there signs businesses are overinvesting in a way that often precedes a downturn?

A: CapEx is typically during the later stages of the boom .... Well, cyclicals aren"t at that place now: that"s for sure. No boom in CapEx is good and bad. Good because it means no over enthusiasm, which argues for longer cycle. Bad in that it means continued slower-than-trend growth.

This interview was conducted in the Reuters Global Markets Forum, a chat room hosted on the Eikon platform. For details, please follow this link: here

(Reporting By Michael Connor in New York)


Q&A: Cyclical stocks set to boost Wall Street rally: Richard Bernstein
Q&A: Cyclical stocks set to boost Wall Street rally: Richard Bernstein
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Q&A: Cyclical stocks set to boost Wall Street rally: Richard Bernstein Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/qa-cyclical-stocks-set-to-boost-wall-street-rally-richard-bernstein/

Gold touches five-week high. Six reasons for the rally

Gold up $7 as winning ways continue



Gold prices touched their best level since April 24 on Wednesday.


Here are a few factors behind the rally:


  1. General US dollar weakness, which is partly due to:

  2. Speculation that the June 14 decision will be a dovish hike. Rates are likely to rise but the statement could say that a pause is likely unless growth and inflation rise.

  3. Chinese yuan instability could be adding to demand for safe havens

  4. Slow Eurozone inflation diminishes the chance of higher European rates

  5. Momentum. Does that count? Gold has been in a steady climb since May 10

  6. Technicals. The gold rally originated from the trendline since January and it accelerated after breaking the 61.8% retracement of the April-May drop



Gold touches five-week high. Six reasons for the rally
Gold touches five-week high. Six reasons for the rally
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Gold touches five-week high. Six reasons for the rally Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/gold-touches-five-week-high-six-reasons-for-the-rally/

Your Money: Creative caregiving solutions for the 'sandwich generation'


By Beth Pinsker
| NEW YORK

Stretched thin by the needs of your children and your elderly parents? Try this "sandwich generation" solution: Move your young adults in with their grandparents and let them take care of each other.

This is working for Eileen Helmer, who turns 30 this summer, and her grandmother, also named Eileen, who is almost 90. They are best friends and roommates in Miami.

"I do all the grocery shopping, heavy lifting and changing the lightbulbs. She takes care of all of my plants," says Helmer, who moved in with her grandmother more than six years ago to save money during law school.

She liked it so much that she stayed after she graduated and went to work for EY as a tax lawyer.

The middle generation - made up of her mom and her three aunts and uncles - could not be happier to have a caring family member on site.

"Everyone says it’s a great relief," says Helmer.

Many members of the so-called "sandwich generation" feel squeezed by competing demands. In fact, more than half of those who provide financial support to an adult family member say it is hindering their ability to save for their own retirement, according to a new Wells Fargo/Gallup poll.

"It catches the middle generation a lot of times by surprise," said Sandra McPeak, managing director of investments at Wells Fargo Advisors.



There is a huge range of solutions to deal with the caretaking dilemmas that arise. Liza Baker, a health coach (simply-healthcoaching.com/) based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, has clients living with aging parents to provide full-time care. She also had a client who turned away a neglectful father.

Here is how some families are meeting the demands from both sides, without letting their own retirement get off track:

* Make decisions as a family

Family communication is key, says McPeak. She has one set of clients in their early 80s who both need full-time care and are worried about how long their funds will hold out. Their daughters call often, wanting to know the financial picture, but the parents are not ready to talk in more than broad brush strokes.

"The daughters are just able to take care of themselves, and they are terrified," says McPeak.



But the financial picture is complicated, because the family might not benefit most by selling the parent"s home now while they are both alive, because they would have to pay tax on a gain over $500,000, and the house has greatly appreciated in value in 35 years. "It"s a touchy subject," says McPeak, and one best discussed with all the parties at once, talking in specific numbers so everyone knows what is going on.

* Make lemonade

When caregiving sucks away all your energy and puts a halt on your career, there are ways to make it work for you.

After a long stretch putting her own career as a product designer on hold to care for her kids and her parents, Colleen Kavanaugh, 45, put her skills to use.



"When my dad died, I realized that I had what was the equivalent of a masters degree," says Kavanaugh, who lives near Morristown, New Jersey, and now makes $125 an hour as a certified caregiving consultant (thelongestdance.com/).

Her best advice to clients: Get a power of attorney before something happens, especially if there is any cognitive decline.

* Put grandma and the kids to work

Sometime the two bread ends of the sandwich are able to work together to help the middle. For Daniel Grote, a financial planner at Latitude Financial Group in Denver, moving his mother-in-law into his home for six years meant she was taken care of and there was a built-in babysitter for his three young kids.

While her stay turned out to be temporary and not too expensive, Grote is now preparing for costs down the road. Taking the advice he gives others, that means looking into long-term care insurance and buying a house big enough for her to have a room if she needs to move back.

Eileen Helmer is also preparing for more intense caregiving duties. She is engaged to be married to a 33-year-old who also lives with his grandparents and helps take care of them. They plan to split their time between the two homes, although they have not yet worked out all the details.

"Maybe my grandmother will take care of my kids," Helmer says.

(Editing by Lauren Young and Dan Grebler)


Your Money: Creative caregiving solutions for the "sandwich generation"
Your Money: Creative caregiving solutions for the "sandwich generation"
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Your Money: Creative caregiving solutions for the "sandwich generation" Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/your-money-creative-caregiving-solutions-for-the-sandwich-generation/

Si è già spenta la fiamma rialzista del dollaro USA?

Buonasera ai Lettori di Investing.com,


di seguito propongo la mia video analisi panoramica sul mercato delle valute.


Buona visione


[embedded content]


© 2017 Renato Decarolis


All rights reserved



Si è già spenta la fiamma rialzista del dollaro USA?
Si è già spenta la fiamma rialzista del dollaro USA?
http://it.investing.com/rss/market_overview.rss
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Si è già spenta la fiamma rialzista del dollaro USA? Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/si-e-gia-spenta-la-fiamma-rialzista-del-dollaro-usa/

Indice FTSE MIB, e così oggi l’orso, ha colpito nel finale…



Investing.com – Il contratto Future FTSE MIB con scadenza a giugno 2017 chiude oggi a 20.758 punti, in perdita del -0.23 %, una seduta iniziata con un laterale, si è poi orientata al rally per concludersi con un veloce movimento ribassista che ha provocato una chiusura in rosso..


In chiusura si collocano in verde 19 titoli su 40, con un range di variazione che va dal migliore (Italgas SpA (MI:IG)) che guadagna il +2.12%, al peggiore (Mediaset (MI:MS)), che cede il -4.51%.


Analisi:

ha lasciato fare l"orso, sornione, ha concesso spazio ai tori, lanciati in acquisti ripetuti ad ogni down…li ha fatti convincere della loro egemonia, per poi punirli, senza nemmeno troppo impegnarsi, con due potenti zampate ben assestate, proprio quando si sentivano ormai al sicuro. Una dimostrazione di grande forza del toro, quella di oggi, ma senza eccessi, senza ostentazioni e questo comportamento non può che generare un sentimento di rispetto nei confronti di questi operatori. Non solo autentica forza da vendere, ma fine strategia applicata in modo intelligente e nel momento migliore. Ciò premesso bisogna senz’altro aggiungere che la strategia evidenziatasi in questa seduta è fra le più disorientanti per un trader che viene certamente “avviluppato” in essa, anche e forse soprattutto, dal punto di vista psicologico. In questo periodo gli autorevoli cori dei sostenitori del sicuro ritorno degli acquisti si sprecano, provocando nella platea dei trader, forti e radicate aspettative rialziste, inducendoli così ad unirsi ai compratori ad ogni minimo segnale di up che si verifica sui grafici. Questo atteggiamento, indotto dalla situazione generale di forte aspettativa rialzista, è piuttosto sfavorevole, alla fine, a molti trader che si trovano ad effettuare diverse operazioni con esito negativo. Il setup generale di breve periodo, a tutt’oggi, rimane ancora moderatamente orientato al ribasso, questa è l’unica affermazione obiettiva che si può fare osservando i grafici. Nessun segnale di ripresa rialzista è ancora emerso in modo chiaro ed inequivocabile, nonostante le grandi aspettative di una vasta platea di trader e analisti. A questa impostazione conviene quindi uniformarsi, per evitare di trovarsi continuamente orientati contro l’andamento di mercato. Le aree da monitorare per optare verso una vendita rimangono , allo stato attuale, quelle comprese fra i 20900 e i 21220 punti, con stop loss di chiusura stretto (non oltre 50 punti sopra il massimo valore) ed un target che si può ora ipotizzare verso i 20400 e 20250 punti, in estensione down. La discesa, seppur contenuta e avanzante a strappi piuttosto contrastati, sembra aver ancora spazio davanti a sé. L’area dei 20900 punti, già qui in precedenza segnalata, ha oggi effettivamente offerto l’occasione per effettuare una profittevole operazione short. Come di consueto affronteremo l’attività intraday dal canale Telegram dei segnali gratuiti in tempo reale. Ricordando di utilizzare la massima prudenza in questa fase così complessa, vi auguro la Buonasera. Francesco Lamanna.


Future FTSE MIB, grafico su tf a 15 minuti
Future FTSE MIB, grafico su tf a 15 minuti




Chi gradisce questa analisi di fine giornata che viene qui regolarmente pubblicata, è gentilmente invitato a cliccare sul tasto "segui", manifestando, in tal modo, il suo gradimento.


Posizioni & operazioni del 2017:


Operazioni di trading in corso: short da 18.135 punti del 7 dicembre 2016 (CFDs)

Operazioni di trading aperte oggi: nessuna

Operazioni di trading chiuse oggi: nessuna

Ordini pendenti in attesa d’esecuzione: Ordine di vendita a livello molto superiore all’attuale (medio medio-lungo periodo); vedi segnali gratuiti Vedaforex®.


Gli indici migliori del FTSE MIB, alle 17.50, oggi sono:

FTSE Italia Salute (+0.91%)

FTSE Itali Telecomunicazioni (+0.73%)

FTSE Italia Servizi di Pubblica Utilità (+0.65%)




Gli indici peggiori invece sono:


FTSE Italia Media (-2.26%)

FTSE Italia Materie Prime (-2.24%)

FTSE Italia Chimica e Materie Prime (-2.23%)


Alti, i volumi di scambio della sessione odierna che ha visto muovere, sino alle ore 17.40, n° 903.177.283 azioni per un controvalore pari a 4.454.733.700 Euro; i contratti conclusi sono stati 346.469 e le azioni in negoziazione sono state 363, delle quali 186 hanno chiuso in rialzo e 156 in ribasso; 21 sono quelle rimaste invariate.


I titoli oggi più scambiati in capitale sono stati:


Unicredit (MI:CRDI) :

Volume di scambio di 35.2M di titoli, per un controvalore di 548M di euro


Intesa (MI:ISP) :

Volume di scambio di 155M di titoli, per un controvalore di 396M di euro


Recordati (MI:RECI) :

Volume di scambio di 10.6M di titoli, per un controvalore di 379M di euro


I titoli migliori dell"indice milanese sono in chiusura:


Italgas SpA (MI:IG) quotato 4.712 (+2.12%)


Recordati (MI:RECI) quotato 35.81 (+1.44%)


Atlantia (MI:ATL) quotato 24.78 (+1.39%)


Fra i peggiori troviamo oggi:


Mediaset SpA (MI:MS) quotato 3.514 (-4.51%)


UBI (MI:UBI) banca quotato 3.362 (-3.28%)


Banco BPM (MI:PMII) quotato 2.772 (-2.67%)


I rendimenti dei BTP italiani sono stati oggi del +2.20% sulla scadenza a 10 anni, del +0.94% su quella a 5 anni e del -0.04% su quella a 2 anni.


Contrastate nel finale, le altre maggiori piazze europee con gli Indici di: Amsterdam AEX che scende del -0.31%, Parigi CAC 40 che chiude in peggioramento del -0.42%, Francoforte DAX, che avanza del +0.13%, Londra FTSE 100 che è in diminuzione del -0.09%, Madrid IBEX positiva del +0.03% e Zurigo SMI in guadagno del +0.10%.


Su base giornaliera, oggi il cross EUR/USD, ha assunto un andamento rialzista (+0.53% al momento della scrittura), il cambio ha raggiunto un massimo a 1.1252 ed un minimo a 1.1164; la coppia scambia ora a 1.1232.



Indice FTSE MIB, e così oggi l’orso, ha colpito nel finale…
Indice FTSE MIB, e così oggi l’orso, ha colpito nel finale…
http://it.investing.com/rss/market_overview.rss
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Indice FTSE MIB, e così oggi l’orso, ha colpito nel finale… Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/indice-ftse-mib-e-cosi-oggi-lorso-ha-colpito-nel-finale/

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: From Failure High to Bearish Swing


To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here.


Talking Points:


  • EUR/JPY Technical Strategy: Long-term bullish, intermediate-term: mixed, short-term: bearish.

  • EUR/JPY put in an impressive bounce off of last week’s lows; but sellers have shown up ahead of the prior swing-high.

  • If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. If you’re looking for shorter-term ideas, check out our IG Client Sentiment.

In our last article, we looked at the ‘failure high’ in EUR/JPY as the pair fell short of taking out the prior May-high by a single pip. As we had written, while the trend was undeniably bullish, the fact that bulls lost motivation whilst testing those prior highs may have been deductively telling us something. Shortly after, sellers enveloped price action in the Euro and this drove EUR/JPY down to a key support level around 123.22, which is the 23.6% retracement of the most recent bullish move, taking the low in April up to the May high.


EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: From Failure High to Bearish Swing



Chart prepared by James Stanley


The net of the past three weeks of price action in EUR/JPY has been a rather chaotic range near the top of a well-developed bullish move. So, while near-term price action has taken on a bearish tonality, the longer-term formation here is still bullish in nature. Nonetheless, price action remains very close to the top of that longer-term bullish formation, and traders may want to look for a deeper retracement before adding bullish exposure with longer-term time horizons. There are two potential zones to watch for such an indication; with ‘S1’ showing between 121.62-121.96, while ‘S2’ straddles the 120.00 psychological level (119.91-120.32).


EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: From Failure High to Bearish Swing

Chart prepared by James Stanley


For shorter-term bearish strategies, we’re at an interesting area of potential resistance. We had looked at 124.50 as a ‘line of demarcation’ in our previous article, and this area continues to elicit interest. This area had given a brief element of resistance before the bearish move extended after this week’s open; and taking a Fibonacci retracement around this most recent bearish move shows the 50% marker at 124.62. This can open the door to short-side swings with stops above 124.78 or 125.00, with targets cast towards 123.75 and then a re-test of prior lows at 123.22.


EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: From Failure High to Bearish Swing

Chart prepared by James Stanley


--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com


To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE


Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX



EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: From Failure High to Bearish Swing
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: From Failure High to Bearish Swing
https://rss.dailyfx.com/feeds/all
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: From Failure High to Bearish Swing Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/eurjpy-technical-analysis-from-failure-high-to-bearish-swing/

U.S. fund investors buy into bonds every week of 2017 - ICI


By Trevor Hunnicutt
| NEW YORK

Fund investors binged on bonds during the latest week, sending another $8.1 billion to U.S.-based debt funds that have not recorded a week of withdrawals this year, Investment Company Institute data showed on Wednesday.

Taxable bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the United States attracted $7.4 billion, while municipal bond funds pulled in $665 million, the trade group said.

The rotation to bonds comes as investors have shown caution around the handsomely priced U.S. stock market.

Investors pulled cash from domestic equity funds for the fourth straight week, withdrawing $5.5 billion, according to ICI.



But some investors say now is not the time to be wary.

"We"re fully invested, and we think equity investors should be fully invested," said Chuck Self, chief investment officer at iSectors LLC in Appleton, Wisconsin.



He said investors in bonds risk being on the wrong side of an overaggressive move by the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates multiple times this year while trimming its bond reserves. Plus, the yields on bonds are puny.

"You want to pick up yield here," said Self. "That"s the surest source of return for the balance of the year."



Fed Governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday said she thinks a rate hike is "likely" coming soon and that she backs shrinking the Fed"s balance sheet "before too long." Both moves could send ripples through debt markets.

U.S. fund investors are finding refuge not just in bonds, but also in international stocks. Equity funds focused outside the United States attracted $4.7 billion in their 25th straight week pulling cash, ICI said.

(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)


U.S. fund investors buy into bonds every week of 2017 - ICI
U.S. fund investors buy into bonds every week of 2017 - ICI
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! U.S. fund investors buy into bonds every week of 2017 - ICI Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/u-s-fund-investors-buy-into-bonds-every-week-of-2017-ici/

Wild swings, lack of liquidity keeping U.S. funds out of bitcoin




A Bitcoin (virtual currency) paper wallet with QR codes and a coin are seen in an illustration picture taken at La Maison du Bitcoin in Paris, France, May 27, 2015.

REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo



Wild swings, lack of liquidity keeping U.S. funds out of bitcoin
Wild swings, lack of liquidity keeping U.S. funds out of bitcoin
http://feeds.reuters.com/news/wealth
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Wild swings, lack of liquidity keeping U.S. funds out of bitcoin Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/wild-swings-lack-of-liquidity-keeping-u-s-funds-out-of-bitcoin/

Poll puts Theresa May ahead by six points as race narrows

The latest poll for The Sun shows a narrowing race


Theresa May remains in command but Labour has been eating into lead.


The latest poll from SurveyMonkey:


  • Conservatives 44%

  • Labour 38%

  • Lib Dems 6%

  • UKIP 4%

  • Others 6%

Their forecast puts May at 342 seats, more than the 326 need for a majority and more than her current 330 seats.


The poll was conducted among nearly 19,000 voters over the past week, and has a margin of error of 1.5 points.


Despite the lead, the poll continues to show the trend of a much closer race than it had been two weeks ago. It"s critical that May stops the bleeding in time for the June 8 vote.


Poll puts Theresa May ahead by six points as race narrows
Poll puts Theresa May ahead by six points as race narrows
http://www.forexlive.com/feed/news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Poll puts Theresa May ahead by six points as race narrows Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/poll-puts-theresa-may-ahead-by-six-points-as-race-narrows/

Yuan Soared to 7-Month High - What’s Next?


Talking points:


- The offshore Yuan had the largest single-day gain since January 5th; watch the key levels next.


- Yuan’s overnight funding cost jumped in the offshore market, while the reference rate was slightly changed.


- Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Trading Guides and watch DailyFX webinars.


USD/CNH Broke Key Support


Yuan Soared to 7-Month High - What

Prepared by Michael Boutros


USDCNH broke a key support confluence today at 6.8048 where the 61.8% extension of the decline off the yearly high converges on a pair of operative slope lines. The break has fueled the largest single-day decline since January 5th with the move taking out the yearly at 6.7585. A critical support zone is seen lower at 6.7114-6.7263- a region defined by the 100% extension & the 50% retracement of the 2016 advance and converges on a pair of slope lines extending off the late-January & February lows- risk for a larger rebound off this zone. A break lower would target subsequent support objectives at the January high-day close at 6.6819 backed by the 61.8% retracement at 6.6463.


Initial resistance stands with the 2015 high at 6.7585 with broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the 6.8048 target (former key support). Note that momentum remains deep in oversold territory and keeps the focus lower for now. From a trading standpoint I would be looking to fade strength on a rally towards the 50-line targeting key support where the pair would be at risk for a near-term recovery.


HIBOR Jumped, Yuan Fix Little Changed


Yuan’s recent rally is mostly driven by the tightened liquidity in the offshore market. The overnight borrowing cost of the Chinese currency in Hong Kong’s interbank market (HIBOR O/N) soared to 21.0793% on Wednesday. As seen in the following chart, when Yuan’s funding cost rose, the Yuan normally gained against its U.S. counterpart as it became more expensive for traders to short the currency. However, when the rate fell back to its normal range (below 4%), the USD/CNH rebounded as well. As a result, in terms of Yuan’s moves in the near future, HIBOR will be one key indicator.


Yuan Soared to 7-Month High - What

Data downloaded from Bloomberg; chart prepared by Renee Mu.


We can also see in the table that the current overnight borrowing rate has exceeded longer-term rates, which is unusual and may not be long-lasting.





















Date



HIBOR O/N



HIBOR 1W



HIBOR 2W



HIBOR 1M



HIBOR 2M



HIBOR 3M



HIBOR 6M



HIBOR 1Y



5/31/2017



21.0793%



7.8520%



6.5801%



5.9055%



5.2865%



5.0347%



4.9285%



5.0497%


The second key indicator is the PBOC’s reference rate. On Wednesday, the regulator strengthened the Yuan slightly, by 65 pips (or 0.1%) to 6.8633 as of 12:15 pm ET, which is over 1100 pips weaker than the offshore Yuan rate. Whether the regulator will recognize Yuan’s strength through the daily fix and how much it will be may impact the next trend of the Yuan rate. The CFETS, a division run by the PBOC, releases the reference rate at 9:15pm ET on trading days.


Yuan’s Value against A Basket


The Chinese currency has been losing to a basket of currencies that includes the U.S. Dollar. All of the three Yuan indexes have set record lows last Friday on a weekly basis. In specific, the primary gauge, CFETS Yuan Index, dropped -0.23% to 92.26 against the basket. China’s exchange rate target is to maintain the Yuan reasonably stable against a basket of currencies. Yuan’s gains against the U.S. Dollar will help to balance its losses against other currencies in the basket and stabilize its value to the basket.


Yuan Soared to 7-Month High - What

Data downloaded from Bloomberg; chart prepared by Renee Mu.


Chinese PMI Improves


Last but not least, Chinese fundamentals will impact Yuan rates in the long term. China’s official manufacturing PMI print for May came out to be 51.2, better than a consensus forecast of 51.0 from Bloomberg. The following chart shows that the leading indicator has recovered from a contraction phase seen from mid 2015 to early 2016. The more important question is whether the improvement can be sustainable over the following months in 2017. Also, China will release Caixin manufacturing PMI read for May at 9:45pm ET today; the gauge measures the condition of smaller firms that are normally more sensitive to economic cycles. The Caixin print could give out more clues on the development of Chinese producers that have encountered major obstacles.


Yuan Soared to 7-Month High - What

Data downloaded from Bloomberg; chart prepared by Renee Mu.


- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist and Renee Mu, Currency Analyst


Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Hereto be added to his email distribution list.


To receive reports from Renee Mu,sign up for her distribution list.



Yuan Soared to 7-Month High - What’s Next?
Yuan Soared to 7-Month High - What’s Next?
https://rss.dailyfx.com/feeds/forex_market_news
$inline_image !!! CLICK HERE TO READ MORE !!! Yuan Soared to 7-Month High - What’s Next? Forex Blog | Free Forex Tips | Forex News http://www.forextutor.net/yuan-soared-to-7-month-high-whats-next/